Monday, December 27, 2010

Sports betting as an investment

Making Money by Betting on Sports

Most people think that sports betting is about finding 'sure things,' but in reality such 'locks' are nothing more than gamblers' fancy. Just as in real estate, currency, stocks, or any other speculative market, 'sure things' simply do not exist. As a professional sports bettor, my goal is to find and exploit many small edges over a long period of time to earn a compounding return. Winning 56% of games is very significant, and with very conservative bet sizing, you can grow your return very quickly. Investing $10,000 into the stock market for a year and earning a 10% return is considered a great investment - but over the past 10 years I have averaged a 73.0% return each year on my NFL, NBA and NCAA football and basketball picks. (With 10% juice already factored in).

If you had invested $10,000 in my picks each year since 1999, you would have seen an average profit of $7,298 per year. Furthermore, if you had invested $10,000 in my picks in 1999, and had let your winnings compound weekly without removing any profits, you would have turned that $10,000 into $349,112 in ten years.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Dr. Bob is Featured in an ESPN Article About The Perfect Handicapping Database

In the recent ESPN Magazine, there is a great article titled "Database of Dreams" by Chad Millman, that centers on the perfect handicapping database. Dr. Bob is featured in the article as one of only 9 people that own this database software. To read the full article, visit Dr. Bob's media page. It is #7 towards the bottom of the page.

Below is an excerpt of the article:

PARLAYING OFF
To make money you have to risk money. But we all don’t sweat equally. When a buddy goads you into putting a few bucks on the big game, where do you draw the line? We asked the Nation. What’s your limit for a friendly bet on a sporting event?

In many ways, handicapping today is a highly sophisticated science, steeped in PhD-level statistical analysis. In 2009, at the 14th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, presentations included Exploiting Inefficiencies it tediously entered by Stryker. And it worked. Suddenly the record for any situation a team had ever played in—at home off a loss against a team off a win; a team on the road as a favorite after two straight wins of 10 or more points— could be determined immediately. Says Stryker: “What had taken 23 hours now took 23 seconds.”

If pro sports gamblers win just over half of their bets, it’s a good year. Here’s why: Let’s say his bankroll is $10,000 and he wagers on 2,000 games in a year. If he bets 3% of his roll per game, that’s $330 (including the 10% commission). At 54%, the gambler will win 1,080 bets worth $324,000 and lose 920 worth $303,600. Gross profit: $20,400—or better than a 100% return on his $10,000 stake.

At the M Casino in Las Vegas, bookmakers create lines with the help of a supercomputer nicknamed Midas, which runs algorithms that determine game outcomes. This April, a London-based investment firm introduced a sports-betting hedge fund in which analysts use mathematical models to make thousands of bets.

Even the bettors tend to be more nerdy than naughty these days. Dr. Bob, another high-profile ’capper, studied stats and economics at Cal. But in the late ’80s most handicappers were like Scott and Stryker—still in the hash marks and scratch-paper phase—who could only dream of Jetsons-like computing efficiency. Then in 1991, after a particularly flush year, Scott happened to be seated next to a computer scientist on a flight out of South Bend. “I’d like to build a computer database that can help me with handicapping,” Scott told him. “Is something like that possible?”

READ MORE OF THE SPORTS INVESTING STRATEGY HERE

Friday, December 3, 2010

Basketball Best Bets!

55% on NFL Best Bets Last 23 Years! 

I am looking at 7 or 8 potential plays this week and I need more time to do a complete analysis, so I will probably not have the NFL posted until Saturday again this week.

Basketball Best Bets Winning
My Basketball Best Bets have started out the season well, as I am 20-13 on my Basketball Best Bets and 49-29 on a Star Basis (9-3 on 3-Stars and 11-10 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +17.1 Stars at -1.10 odds (through Monday, Nov 29). You can get daily Best Bets for just $15 or sign up for a 28 day subscription ($295) or season subscriptions that go through the NCAA Tournament or NBA Finals in June.

Week 12 Recap
I finally won a couple of close games in the NFL and I went 2-0 on my week 12 Best Bets (and 2-1 on the Strong Opinions with the Jets, Seahawks, and 49ers). My 2-Star Best Bet on Minnesota -1 won 17-13, which was close despite the Vikings out-gaining Washington 302 yards at 5.0 yards per play to 216 yards at 4.2 yppl. My 2-Star Best Bet Under 51 on the Chargers-Colts game was also close (50 total points), but that was a great bet that shouldn't have been close as that game went under despite two interception return touchdowns. The teams combined for only 604 yards and 5.0 yppl, which would normally produce around 38 points. I'm still just 4-9 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but none of the close wins were actually lucky,as the stats showed I had the right side in all 4 of those close wins. Of the 9 close losses, 3 of them were games I certainly had the right side in, one I certainly had the wrong side in and 5 were toss-ups that could have gone either way so I should be 5-4 or 6-3 in those 9 close losses. I am now just 8-15 on my NFL Best Bets (18-36 on Stars), but that bad record has more to do with bad luck on close games than bad handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.

My methods have worked very well in the NFL overall this season (pretty evident given my 56% spread record picking every game, 88-69-2 with 16 games with no lean), and the majority of my Best Bets have been good bets, so I'm confident that I'll win going forward as long as I don't continue to lose every close game. I've been down in the NFL in other years and come back to rally for a profit by the end of year and I expect to win going forward - although it may be tough to get back to 50% this year. My Strong Opinions were 2-1 in week 12 and are now 11-13-1 for the season.

Click here to read more free basketball analysis!

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Best Bets!

Basketball Best Bets +471.2 Stars (at -1.10 odds) Last 12 Seasons!
Best Bets 49-29 on a Star Basis This Season!


Check back today after 3 pm Pacific for Today's Best Bets!

Current Season Results
Best Bets 20-13
I won my 3-Star Best Bet on Florida International +10, as the Panthers managed to lose by 9 points despite being down by just 3 points with 55 seconds left. I deserve some close wins after being well below 50% last season on close games (I was up 35 Stars despite that). For the season I am 20-13 on my Basketball Best Bets and 49-29 on a Star Basis (9-3 on 3-Stars and 11-10 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +17.1 Stars at -1.10 odds.

Follow the link for more free basketball analysis!

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

NFL Best Bets for Wednesday

55% on NFL Best Bets Last 23 Years! 
Thursday NFL Available on Wednesday afternoon.

Week 11 Recap
It's tough to have a good season when you lose almost every close game and that continues to be the case this season. I was 1-3 on my week 11 NFL Best Bets while losing both close games. My 2-Star Best Bet on Pittsburgh -7 was an easy 35-3 winner and my 2-Star Best Bet on Detroit +6 1/2 lost 19-35. The two close games that I ultimately lost were 2-Stars on Cleveland +1 1/2 (lost by 4) and 2-Stars on New England -4, who had a 17 point 4th quarter lead and won by just 3 points. I'm now 2-9 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but neither of the close wins was actually a lucky win, as one was a game in which the other team scored late to get within 7 points of the spread and the other was Cincy against Indy, who was -5 in turnovers and covered anyway because they out played the Colts otherwise as a 7 point dog. The 9 close losses I've had have been agonizing and I should be 6-3 on those games since 3 were games I certainly had the right side in and 6 were toss-ups that could have gone either way (I would expect to be 3-3 on those games. I am now just 6-15 on my NFL Best Bets (14-36 on Stars), but I deserve to be 12-9 based on my level of handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.

My methods have worked very well in the NFL overall this season (pretty evident given my 56% spread record picking every game, 79-61-2 with 16 games with no lean), and the majority of my Best Bets have been good bets, so I'm confident that I'll win going forward as long as I don't continue to lose every close game. I've been down in the NFL in other years and come back to rally for a profit by the end of year and I expect to win going forward - although it may be tough to get back to 50% this year. My Strong Opinions were 0-1 in week 11 and are now 9-12-1 for the season.

Follow the link for more Best Bets and football analysis!

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Thursday's NFL Best Bets

55% on NFL Best Bets Last 23 Years! 

Week 11 NFL Analysis posted on Friday after 10 am Pacific.
I'll post my week 11 NFL Best Bets, Strong Opinions and free analysis on Friday after 10 am Pacific – after they are released to my monthly and season subscribers. If you don't have a subscription you can purchase the weekly Best Bets for $30 after they are posted.

Week 10 Recap
Just when I think I'm finally about to win a close game, my 2-Star Best Bet on Cleveland +3/+3.5 gives up a TD with just 6 seconds left in overtime to give me my second loss with an underdog in overtime in two weeks. Last week I was also screwed with Philly -2 1/2 on a bullshit personal foul call for a fingertips to the head of Peyton Manning that led to the Colts scoring to lose by 2 instead of 9 (I had Philly -2 1/2). Even the close game I won on Sunday, my 3-Star Best Bet on Cincinnati +7 was unlucky, as the Bengals out-gained the Colts 341 yards at 5.1 yards per play to 256 yards at 4.3 yppl and covered despite being a ridiculous -5 in turnovers, which tells you how good of a bet that was (teams that are -5 in turnovers were 4-126 ATS since 1989 in the NFL). So, for the second straight week I had two very good bets and my record on those games is 1-3 instead of 4-0. I'm officially 2-7 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but neither of the close wins was actually a lucky win, as one was a game in which the other team scored late to get within 7 points of the spread and the other was Cincy, who was -5 in turnovers and covered anyway because they out played the Colts otherwise as a 7 point dog. The 7 close losses I've had have been agonizing and I should be 5-2 on those games since 3 were games I certainly had the right side in and 4 were toss-ups that could have gone either way (I would expect to be 2-2 on those games. I am now just 5-12 on my NFL Best Bets (12-30 on Stars), but I deserve to be 10-7 based on my level of handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.

Click to read the rest of this Best Bets football analysis and don't forget to check back after 3 pm today for Dr. Bob's College Football Analysis!!

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

3 Star Best Bet for Free in today's College Football Analysis

College Best Bets 761-561-35 (58%) on a Star Basis Since 2004!! 
Best Bets 36-25-1 This Season (87-65-2 on Stars)! 


Wednesday Best Bet and Tuesday Strong Opinion in Free Analysis section
I have a Strong Opinion on Temple (-7 1/2) on Tuesday night and Toledo (-10) is a 3-Star Best Bet on Wednesday night. You can read the analysis of all 3 early games in the Free Analysis section in the Mid American Conference page.

Week 11 Recap and Season Results
Best Bets Now 36-25-1 This Season
I was 1-2 on my Best Bets and 3-2 on my Strong Opinions in week 11, which was just the second time all season I've been under 50% on my College Best Bets (I was 0-1 in week 2). It's been a pretty consistent, winning season so far so 1-2 is certainly nothing more than a speed bump given my 59% winning percentage for the season. My Best Bet win was a 2-Star on Auburn -8, who won by 18 after falling behind by 14 points early. I lost a 3-Star on Cincinnati, who turned the ball over early and often on their way to a decisive 12-35 loss at West Virginia. My other loss was a 3-Star loss on Florida Atlantic -10, who was up early 14-0 but won by just 1 point over UL Lafayette. The under in that game was a Strong Opinion winner and I was 2-2 on my Strong Opinion sides with Pittsburgh, East Carolina, BYU, and Air Force. Only one of my Best Bets was affected by a line move, as Florida Atlantic went from a 3-Star loss at -10 to a 2-Star loss when the line moved to -10 1/2 shortly after releasing the Best Bets to my subscribers. I will of course count that game as a 3-Star loss since -10 was the line at the time of release.

Click to read the rest of this article for more football analysis and sports betting picks!

Thursday, November 11, 2010

College Football Best Bets!

College Best Bets 761-561-35 (58%) on a Star Basis Since 2004!! 
Best Bets 35-23-1 This Season (85-59-2 on Stars)! 

Week 11 Analysis posted on Thursday after 3 pm Pacific.
I'll post my week 10 College Best Bets, Strong Opinions and free analysis on Thursday around 3 pm Pacific – after they are released to my monthly and season subscribers. If you don't have a subscription you can purchase the weekly Best Bets for $65 after they are posted, although it's better to be a monthly or seasonal subscriber because you get each game as it's being released, which allows you to play them before the line moves.

Week 10 Recap and Season Results
Best Bets Now 35-23-1 This Season
I was 3-2 on my Best Bets and 9-5 on a Star Basis, going 3-1 on my 3-Star Best Bet and 0-1 on my 2-Star Best Bet. I won 3-Stars on Boston College -3 over Wake Forest as the Eagles won 23-13 while out-gaining the Demon Deacons 5.7 yards per play to 4.6 yppl. I won 3-Stars on Oklahoma State -7 1/2, who jumped out to a 34-0 lead over Baylor and won 55-28. I won 3-Stars on Texas A&M +3 over Oklahoma, as the Aggies won straight up 33-19 while averaging 5.6 yppl and giving up just 3.6 yppl to the Sooners. I lost 3-Stars on Louisiana Tech at pick, who lost 34-40 to Fresno State. I lost 2-Stars on UAB -10, who lost 17-31 to Marshall. That's 9-5 on Stars for a solid 3.5 Stars of profit at -1.10 odds. My Strong Opinions were 0-4, so I guess it was good decision making to not make those games Best Bets.

Read more football analysis here!

Check back after 3 pm today for the latest sports betting advice for your most profitable sports investing needs!

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

College Football Analysis

College Best Bets 761-561-35 (58%) on a Star Basis Since 2004!! 
Best Bets 35-23-1 This Season (85-59-2 on Stars)! 

Tuesday and Wednesday analysis in free analysis section (Mid American conference page).
Week 11 Analysis posted on Thursday after 3 pm Pacific.
I'll post my week 10 College Best Bets, Strong Opinions and free analysis on Thursday around 3 pm Pacific – after they are released to my monthly and season subscribers. If you don't have a subscription you can purchase the weekly Best Bets for $65 after they are posted, although it's better to be a monthly or seasonal subscriber because you get each game as it's being released, which allows you to play them before the line moves.

Week 10 Recap and Season Results
Best Bets Now 35-23-1 This Season
I was 3-2 on my Best Bets and 9-5 on a Star Basis, going 3-1 on my 3-Star Best Bet and 0-1 on my 2-Star Best Bet. I won 3-Stars on Boston College -3 over Wake Forest as the Eagles won 23-13 while out-gaining the Demon Deacons 5.7 yards per play to 4.6 yppl. I won 3-Stars on Oklahoma State -7 1/2, who jumped out to a 34-0 lead over Baylor and won 55-28. I won 3-Stars on Texas A&M +3 over Oklahoma, as the Aggies won straight up 33-19 while averaging 5.6 yppl and giving up just 3.6 yppl to the Sooners. I lost 3-Stars on Louisiana Tech at pick, who lost 34-40 to Fresno State. I lost 2-Stars on UAB -10, who lost 17-31 to Marshall. That's 9-5 on Stars for a solid 3.5 Stars of profit at -1.10 odds. My Strong Opinions were 0-4, so I guess it was good decision making to not make those games Best Bets.

The line moves could have affected a few games, as the 3-Star loss on Louisiana Tech at pick would have been a 2-Star loss at -1 1/2 or higher after the line moved. UAB, meanwhile, went from a 2-Star loss at -10 to an opinion at -10 1/2, although the line did move back to -10 on Saturday at about half the books. The line on BC -3 actually stayed at -3 after the release, but eventually moved to -3 1/2 and -4 by Saturday, which would have made that game a 2-Star win instead of a 3-Star at -3 or less.

My record for the season is now....

Click to read the rest of this article for more football analysis and football handicapping!

Friday, November 5, 2010

Catch Dr. Bob on SBR.TV giving his expert analysis!

Dr. Bob on Alabama at LSU...



Dr. Bob on Arkansas at South Carolina...



Dr. Bob on the NCAAF Week 10 Picks and Leans...




Place your bets now!

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Thursday's Basketball Best Bets!

Thursday, November 04 
Basketball Best Bets +471.2 Stars (at -1.10 odds) Last 12 Seasons! 
Best Bets Now 4-1 This Season! 


No Best Bets for Thursday. Thursday Opinion below.

Current Season Results
Best Bets 4-1
I won my 4th consecutive NBA Best Bet on Wednesday night as my 3-Star Best Bet on Charlotte +1 squeaked by New Jersey 85-83. I lost more close games than I won last year, so I'll take the close win without any guilt. I am now 4-1 on my Basketball Best Bets and 10-3 on a Star Basis (2-1 on 3-Stars and 2-0 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +6.7 Stars at -1.10 odds.
Early Season NBA Best Bets 68-32-6 Last 10 Years!
I often get asked if it is best to wait until the NBA gets going before signing up, and the answer is a resounding NO. I have some very strong early season indicators in the NBA and in College Basketball and my NBA Best Bets are 68-32-6 the first two weeks of the last 10 seasons using those indicators. I am 9-3 on 4-Star Best Bets, 32-21-5 on 3-Stars, and 27-8-1 on 2-Stars for a record of 186-91-17 on a Star Basis for a profit of +85.9 Stars at -1.10 odds during the first two weeks, so make sure to jump in early on the NBA this season. I won't have a monthly subscription package up until college starts, but you can purchase season package through the NCAA Tournament Final or through the NBA Playoffs or purchase daily Best Bets for $15 ($20 if you're not a registered member. Registering is free). The season subscription is $1595, which is about $7 a day.

Follow the link to read more on basketball handicapping!

Don't forget to check back after 3 pm today for complete sports betting picks and sports betting advice!

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Great Deals on Monthly and Season Subscriptions!

Here are a few examples of available subscriptions!


FOOTBALL - BASKETBALL COMBO
Get all of my NFL and College Football Analysis and all my NBA and College Basketball Best Bets through the 2011 NBA playoffs for one low price. Includes playoffs. I am 56% lifetime over 24 years and I am a very profitable 5741-4823-237 for a profit of +435.7 Stars (at -1.10 odds) the last 11 years on my Basketball Best Bets (and 55% lifetime for an average of +44 Stars of profit per year at -1.10 odds).
You will receive an email with the analysis of all Best Bets and Strong Opinions and you'll have access to my Football and Basketball Best Bets release page (details will be emailed to you before the season), which releases the Best Bets one by one at exactly the same time to every member.
Season price is lowered each week and reflects what amount of the season is remaining.

BASKETBALL FULL SEASON
I am a very profitable 5741-4823-237 for a profit of +435.7 Stars (at -1.10 odds) the last 11 years on my Basketball Best Bets (and 55% lifetime for an average of +44 Stars of profit per year at -1.10 odds).
Get all my Basketball Best Bets, both College and Pro, emailed to you daily from now through the end of the 2010/2011 season. This subscription includes the NCAA Tournament and NBA Playoffs. In addition to the daily emails, you can also access my Best Bets via my Basketball Best Bets release page (details will be emailed to you) and toll free recorded telephone service (E-mail me at docstoll@aol.com and send me a 5 to 7 digit passcode and I'll send you the information you need for the 800# voicemail service). The price is the current price from now until the end of the season and takes into account how much of the season has already been completed.

NFL & COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON
Get all of my NFL and College Football Best Bets and Strong Opinions for the full season, including Bowl games, the NFL Playoffs, and the Superbowl. I am 56% lifetime over 22 years on my Football Best Bets and 54% on my Strong Opinion in football, but I spend each off-season improving my time-proven handicapping methods.
You will receive an email with the analysis of all Best Bets and Strong Opinions and you'll have access to my Football Best Bets release page (details will be emailed to you before the season), which releases the Best Bets one by one at exactly the same time to every member.
Season price is lowered each week and reflects what amount of the season is remaining.

Check out my monthly and season subscriptions!

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

#2 Boise State (-37.5) 52 Louisiana Tech 14


Regardless of what the polls say, Boise State is the best team in the nation and they should win big again tonight. However, the point spread has caught up to how good the Broncos are and my math model favors Boise by 38 ½ points, which is very close to the line here.


Follow the link for the rest of my football analysis

Friday, October 22, 2010

Dr. Bob on SBR.tv's Week 8 NCAAF Experts' Roundtable


See Dr. Bob and the panel wrap up the Week 8 college football Experts' Roundtable on SBR.tv with some picks and leans!




Top 25 Head-To-Head Matchups from the Experts' Roundtable

The Experts' Roundtable examines the marquee matchups coming up on the Week 8 college football card: the Wisconsin Badgers +5.5 at the Iowa Hawkeyes, the LSU Tigers +6 at the Auburn Tigers, the Nebraska Cornhuskers -5.5 at the Oklahoma St Cowboys, and the Oklahoma Sooners -3 at the Missouri Tigers.

Michigan St and Northwestern: Week 8 NAACF Experts' Roundtable

The Michigan St Spartans have enjoyed several very impressive wins over the past month and are clearly one of the top teams in the country. Their line as a road favorite at Northwestern, though, has gone down since opening, and the panel weighs in with some interesting observations regarding this much-debated line.




Follow the link to read more analysis by Dr. Bob!

Dr. Bob, Justin7 and Right Angle Sports share their thoughts on Navy v. Notre Dame

Dr. Bob has pointed out previously on the Experts' Roundtable that Navy has historically been a good bet on the road. The panel discusses this game where the Midshipmen are getting 7 points against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Thursday's Best Bets!

Thursday, October 21
College Best Bets 734-541-35 (58%) on a Star Basis Since 2004!!
Best Bets 25-16-1 This Season (58-39-2 on Stars)!
Thursday Night Analysis Below.
Week 8 Analysis posted on Thursday after 3:15 pm Pacific.

I'll post my week 8 College Best Bets, Strong Opinions and free analysis on Thursday around 3:15 pm Pacific – after they are released to my monthly and season subscribers. If you don't have a subscription you can purchase the weekly Best Bets for $50 after they are posted, although it's better to be a monthly or seasonal subscriber because you get each game as it's being released, which allows you to play them before the line moves.

Week 7 Recap and Season Results
Best Bets Now 25-16-1 This Season
I had the most Best Bets I've ever had, giving out 14 Best Bets. I was 10-4 the last time I had 14 Best Bets, but things didn't go quite that well this week, as I was 7-7 on my 14 Best Bets - although I did show a profit since my higher ratings plays won. I won my only 4-Star Best Bet, as Oklahoma State (+3) won easily, as expected, 34-17 against Texas Tech. My 3-Star Best Bets were 3-2 for the week starting with Central Florida -5 1/2 (won 35-14) on Wednesday night (that game was posted for free on this page on Wednesday morning) and then splitting my Saturday 3-Stars with wins on Toledo -3 (won 34-21) and Hawaii (+7) (upset Nevada 27-21) and losses with Iowa State +23 1/2 (lost 0-52) and Troy State -19 (won 31-24). My 2-Stars were just 3-5 with wins on Kansas State -3 (won 59-7), Michigan State -7 (won 26-6) and Arkansas State +11 (lost 34-36) and losses on NC State -7 (lost 27-33), Vanderbilt +14 1/2 (lost 0-43), Cal +2 1/2 (lost 14-48), Nebraska -9 1/2 (lost 13-20) and Texas A&M -3 (lost 9-30). Oddly, my losses were all by big margins and my wins were all by at least 9 points too. Overall, it was 7-7, but a profitable 19-16 on a Star Basis. My Strong Opinions were 3-2 with wins on Baylor, Boston College and the SMU-Navy Under and losses with Ball State and TCU -29 (won by 28).

Read the rest of this article here!

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

College Best Bets 61% for the Season!!

Sunday, October 17
College Best Bets 734-541-35 (58%) on a Star Basis Since 2004!!
Best Bets 25-16-1 This Season (58-39-2 on Stars)!
Week 7 Recap and Season Results
Best Bets Now 25-16-1 This Season

I had the most Best Bets I've ever had, giving out 14 Best Bets. I was 10-4 the last time I had 14 Best Bets, but things didn't go quite that well this week, as I was 7-7 on my 14 Best Bets - although I did show a profit since my higher ratings plays won. I won my only 4-Star Best Bet, as Oklahoma State (+3) won easily, as expected, 34-17 against Texas Tech. My 3-Star Best Bets were 3-2 for the week starting with Central Florida -5 1/2 (won 35-14) on Wednesday night (that game was posted for free on this page on Wednesday morning) and then splitting my Saturday 3-Stars with wins on Toledo -3 (won 34-21) and Hawaii (+7) (upset Nevada 27-21) and losses with Iowa State +23 1/2 (lost 0-52) and Troy State -19 (won 31-24). My 2-Stars were just 3-5 with wins on Kansas State -3 (won 59-7), Michigan State -7 (won 26-6) and Arkansas State +11 (lost 34-36) and losses on NC State -7 (lost 27-33), Vanderbilt +14 1/2 (lost 0-43), Cal +2 1/2 (lost 14-48), Nebraska -9 1/2 (lost 13-20) and Texas A&M -3 (lost 9-30). Oddly, my losses were all by big margins and my wins were all by at least 9 points too. Overall, it was 7-7, but a profitable 19-16 on a Star Basis. My Strong Opinions were 3-2 with wins on Baylor, Boston College and the SMU-Navy Under and losses with Ball State and TCU -29 (won by 28).

The line moves affected a few games, as NC State -7 was not a Best Bet at -7 1/2. The 3-Star on Toledo -3 turned in to a 2-Star after the line moved to -3 1/2 or -4. The 2-Star loss on Texas A&M was not a Best Bet when the line moved from -3 to -3 1/2 right after my release. My 3-Star win on Hawaii +7 was a 2-Star at +6 1/2 for those that got the plays after the line move and my 3-Star on Troy -19 was a 2-Star for those that got it at -20 1/2 after the line moved. So, those that got the plays after the line moves actually did better as 2-Star losses on NC State and Texas A&M were not Best Bets after the line moves. The record based on the lines after the release was 7-5 and 17-11 on a Star Basis. Of course, I base my record on the lines at the time of release to my subscribers, but sometimes the line moves actually help the results (people only seem to comment when they don't).

My record for the season is now 25-16-1 on Best Bets and 58-39-2 on a Star Basis (2-1 on 4-Stars, 4-5 on 3-Stars, 19-10-1 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +15.1 Stars at -1.10 odds. My Strong Opinions are 21-21-1 (19-15 on Sides and 2-7 on Totals). The record on the Best Bets based on the lines after they've moved is 23-14 and 52-33 on Stars (+15.7 Stars).

Get more best bets and free analysis here!

Thursday, October 14, 2010

"What Dr. Bob Means for Kirk Cousins" by Chad Millman for ESPN.com


Chad Millman

Who says gambling can't get creative? It's not just math geeks sitting in some dark basement, hoping one day Aaron Sorkin will turn their genius systems into a movie. And it's not just degenerates riding the pine at Vegas sports books believing they'll find an edge if they stare at the board long enough.
Betting requires curiosity and thought and considering ideas that no one has ever considered before. Those are all the ingredients that make up the stew that is creativity.
Or so I've been told. I've never actually given it much thought.
Anyway, whenever I do these System of the Week columns (each Wednesday), I am always struck by the number of factors the wise guys throw my way. The formula will be seven or eight items long. As I hear each one, it makes the whole notion sound more absurd than the next, like watching "Gossip Girl."
Again, or so I've been told.
But the truth is, these systems don't come together through random dart throwing; there are fine minds thinking about them, constantly.
One of them is Dr. Bob, the famous handicapper who is 18-9-1 this season in college football with his best bets. When I asked for an angle he had been investigating this week, he gave me: How do you do if you won the previous game as a road dog of more than three points against a conference opponent, and then you are back on the road as more than a four-point dog and the home team is coming off a win?
Read more here

College Best Bets

Will be available after 3:00 pm PST today! Get Dr. Bob's latest Free Analysis and Best Bets for College and NFL Football. Get the inside scoop for Wednesday's picks, too!

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Dr. Bob Friday College Football Analysis for The Huffington Post online!

I'm now 7-3-1 on my College Best Bets for the season and I have 7 College Best Bets for Saturday at drbobsports.com in addition to Free Analysis on 34 College and 8 NFL games (my NFL free analysis was 11-1 last week). I don't have a Best Bet on tonight's game, but I lean with the dog against an overrated BYU team I bet against last week for a winner.


Byu (-4) 26 UTAH STATE 24
BYU's offense has been very good in recent years, but freshman quarterback Jake Heaps has been horrible so far, averaging just 3.9 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Heaps' numbers should be much better tonight against a Utah State secondary that has allowed 7.2 yppp to teams that would combine to average just 5.4 yppp against an average team. Utah State may not actually be that bad against the pass, as they were good against the pass versus both Oklahoma (4.8 yppp allowed) and Fresno State (6.1 yppp), who are both better than average passing teams. Their pass defense rating is skewed by last week's 15.1 yppp allowed to San Diego State, so they're not as bad as this season's overall stats make them out to be (I rate them at 1.1 yppp worse than average). However, Heaps is probably not as bad as his season stats look either and I expect about 5.6 yppp from Heaps in this game. It appears that Utah State's defense is just as bad as the BYU offense and I project 5.4 yards per play for the Cougars in this game.




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Thursday, September 30, 2010

SBR.tv Experts' Roundtable Conclusion: Free Picks and Leans

Be sure to check back tomorrow to see Dr. Bob, Right Angle Sports, and Justin7 weigh in with some free picks and leans for the upcoming weekend of college football. Videos will be posted weekly with expert opinions you need to know!



Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Each week during football season and each day in basketball season I provide Free Analysis that has proven to be profitable over the years.

My free analysis in football is the most thorough analysis available anywhere and every game that is not a part of my Best Bets Packages is posted for free in this section.

I post my NFL Free analysis each Thursday after 10 am Pacific and my College Free analysis is posted starting at around 3 pm Pacific on Thursday and is usually completed by Friday night.

While my free analysis is good, my Best Bets are better...

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Those of you that are serious about profiting from your sports betting should consider one of my Best Bets Packages, which includes the games each week/day that are the most likely to win.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Welcome to our brand-new Sports Handicapping blog!

 I created Dr. Bob Sports in 1987 while studying statistics at the University of California, Berkeley and my Best Bets have been profitable in the NFL, NBA, College Football and College Basketball. In fact, the average annual return on investment playing my Best Bets in football and basketball is an incredible 73% over the last 10 years.
My success is built on a foundation of discipline and a thorough understanding and application of probability and statistics and I consider sports betting an investment rather than a gamble.
I have a very realistic approach to sports betting (you will never hear me refer to a game as a “Lock”) and, in the long run, if you follow my Best Bet advice and use a disciplined money management strategy YOU WILL WIN.
Stay tuned for constant news, insider tips and much more from Dr. Bob Sports!