In the recent ESPN Magazine, there is a great article titled "Database of Dreams" by Chad Millman, that centers on the perfect handicapping database. Dr. Bob is featured in the article as one of only 9 people that own this database software. To read the full article, visit Dr. Bob's media page. It is #7 towards the bottom of the page.
Below is an excerpt of the article:
PARLAYING OFF
To make money you have to risk money. But we all don’t sweat equally. When a buddy goads you into putting a few bucks on the big game, where do you draw the line? We asked the Nation. What’s your limit for a friendly bet on a sporting event?
In many ways, handicapping today is a highly sophisticated science, steeped in PhD-level statistical analysis. In 2009, at the 14th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, presentations included Exploiting Inefficiencies it tediously entered by Stryker. And it worked. Suddenly the record for any situation a team had ever played in—at home off a loss against a team off a win; a team on the road as a favorite after two straight wins of 10 or more points— could be determined immediately. Says Stryker: “What had taken 23 hours now took 23 seconds.”
If pro sports gamblers win just over half of their bets, it’s a good year. Here’s why: Let’s say his bankroll is $10,000 and he wagers on 2,000 games in a year. If he bets 3% of his roll per game, that’s $330 (including the 10% commission). At 54%, the gambler will win 1,080 bets worth $324,000 and lose 920 worth $303,600. Gross profit: $20,400—or better than a 100% return on his $10,000 stake.
At the M Casino in Las Vegas, bookmakers create lines with the help of a supercomputer nicknamed Midas, which runs algorithms that determine game outcomes. This April, a London-based investment firm introduced a sports-betting hedge fund in which analysts use mathematical models to make thousands of bets.
Even the bettors tend to be more nerdy than naughty these days. Dr. Bob, another high-profile ’capper, studied stats and economics at Cal. But in the late ’80s most handicappers were like Scott and Stryker—still in the hash marks and scratch-paper phase—who could only dream of Jetsons-like computing efficiency. Then in 1991, after a particularly flush year, Scott happened to be seated next to a computer scientist on a flight out of South Bend. “I’d like to build a computer database that can help me with handicapping,” Scott told him. “Is something like that possible?”
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