Making Money by Betting on Sports
Most people think that sports betting is about finding 'sure things,' but in reality such 'locks' are nothing more than gamblers' fancy. Just as in real estate, currency, stocks, or any other speculative market, 'sure things' simply do not exist. As a professional sports bettor, my goal is to find and exploit many small edges over a long period of time to earn a compounding return. Winning 56% of games is very significant, and with very conservative bet sizing, you can grow your return very quickly. Investing $10,000 into the stock market for a year and earning a 10% return is considered a great investment - but over the past 10 years I have averaged a 73.0% return each year on my NFL, NBA and NCAA football and basketball picks. (With 10% juice already factored in).
If you had invested $10,000 in my picks each year since 1999, you would have seen an average profit of $7,298 per year. Furthermore, if you had invested $10,000 in my picks in 1999, and had let your winnings compound weekly without removing any profits, you would have turned that $10,000 into $349,112 in ten years.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Dr. Bob is Featured in an ESPN Article About The Perfect Handicapping Database
In the recent ESPN Magazine, there is a great article titled "Database of Dreams" by Chad Millman, that centers on the perfect handicapping database. Dr. Bob is featured in the article as one of only 9 people that own this database software. To read the full article, visit Dr. Bob's media page. It is #7 towards the bottom of the page.
Below is an excerpt of the article:
PARLAYING OFF
To make money you have to risk money. But we all don’t sweat equally. When a buddy goads you into putting a few bucks on the big game, where do you draw the line? We asked the Nation. What’s your limit for a friendly bet on a sporting event?
In many ways, handicapping today is a highly sophisticated science, steeped in PhD-level statistical analysis. In 2009, at the 14th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, presentations included Exploiting Inefficiencies it tediously entered by Stryker. And it worked. Suddenly the record for any situation a team had ever played in—at home off a loss against a team off a win; a team on the road as a favorite after two straight wins of 10 or more points— could be determined immediately. Says Stryker: “What had taken 23 hours now took 23 seconds.”
If pro sports gamblers win just over half of their bets, it’s a good year. Here’s why: Let’s say his bankroll is $10,000 and he wagers on 2,000 games in a year. If he bets 3% of his roll per game, that’s $330 (including the 10% commission). At 54%, the gambler will win 1,080 bets worth $324,000 and lose 920 worth $303,600. Gross profit: $20,400—or better than a 100% return on his $10,000 stake.
At the M Casino in Las Vegas, bookmakers create lines with the help of a supercomputer nicknamed Midas, which runs algorithms that determine game outcomes. This April, a London-based investment firm introduced a sports-betting hedge fund in which analysts use mathematical models to make thousands of bets.
Even the bettors tend to be more nerdy than naughty these days. Dr. Bob, another high-profile ’capper, studied stats and economics at Cal. But in the late ’80s most handicappers were like Scott and Stryker—still in the hash marks and scratch-paper phase—who could only dream of Jetsons-like computing efficiency. Then in 1991, after a particularly flush year, Scott happened to be seated next to a computer scientist on a flight out of South Bend. “I’d like to build a computer database that can help me with handicapping,” Scott told him. “Is something like that possible?”
READ MORE OF THE SPORTS INVESTING STRATEGY HERE
Below is an excerpt of the article:
PARLAYING OFF
To make money you have to risk money. But we all don’t sweat equally. When a buddy goads you into putting a few bucks on the big game, where do you draw the line? We asked the Nation. What’s your limit for a friendly bet on a sporting event?
In many ways, handicapping today is a highly sophisticated science, steeped in PhD-level statistical analysis. In 2009, at the 14th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, presentations included Exploiting Inefficiencies it tediously entered by Stryker. And it worked. Suddenly the record for any situation a team had ever played in—at home off a loss against a team off a win; a team on the road as a favorite after two straight wins of 10 or more points— could be determined immediately. Says Stryker: “What had taken 23 hours now took 23 seconds.”
If pro sports gamblers win just over half of their bets, it’s a good year. Here’s why: Let’s say his bankroll is $10,000 and he wagers on 2,000 games in a year. If he bets 3% of his roll per game, that’s $330 (including the 10% commission). At 54%, the gambler will win 1,080 bets worth $324,000 and lose 920 worth $303,600. Gross profit: $20,400—or better than a 100% return on his $10,000 stake.
At the M Casino in Las Vegas, bookmakers create lines with the help of a supercomputer nicknamed Midas, which runs algorithms that determine game outcomes. This April, a London-based investment firm introduced a sports-betting hedge fund in which analysts use mathematical models to make thousands of bets.
Even the bettors tend to be more nerdy than naughty these days. Dr. Bob, another high-profile ’capper, studied stats and economics at Cal. But in the late ’80s most handicappers were like Scott and Stryker—still in the hash marks and scratch-paper phase—who could only dream of Jetsons-like computing efficiency. Then in 1991, after a particularly flush year, Scott happened to be seated next to a computer scientist on a flight out of South Bend. “I’d like to build a computer database that can help me with handicapping,” Scott told him. “Is something like that possible?”
READ MORE OF THE SPORTS INVESTING STRATEGY HERE
Friday, December 3, 2010
Basketball Best Bets!
55% on NFL Best Bets Last 23 Years!
I am looking at 7 or 8 potential plays this week and I need more time to do a complete analysis, so I will probably not have the NFL posted until Saturday again this week.
Basketball Best Bets Winning
My Basketball Best Bets have started out the season well, as I am 20-13 on my Basketball Best Bets and 49-29 on a Star Basis (9-3 on 3-Stars and 11-10 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +17.1 Stars at -1.10 odds (through Monday, Nov 29). You can get daily Best Bets for just $15 or sign up for a 28 day subscription ($295) or season subscriptions that go through the NCAA Tournament or NBA Finals in June.
My Basketball Best Bets have started out the season well, as I am 20-13 on my Basketball Best Bets and 49-29 on a Star Basis (9-3 on 3-Stars and 11-10 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +17.1 Stars at -1.10 odds (through Monday, Nov 29). You can get daily Best Bets for just $15 or sign up for a 28 day subscription ($295) or season subscriptions that go through the NCAA Tournament or NBA Finals in June.
Week 12 Recap
I finally won a couple of close games in the NFL and I went 2-0 on my week 12 Best Bets (and 2-1 on the Strong Opinions with the Jets, Seahawks, and 49ers). My 2-Star Best Bet on Minnesota -1 won 17-13, which was close despite the Vikings out-gaining Washington 302 yards at 5.0 yards per play to 216 yards at 4.2 yppl. My 2-Star Best Bet Under 51 on the Chargers-Colts game was also close (50 total points), but that was a great bet that shouldn't have been close as that game went under despite two interception return touchdowns. The teams combined for only 604 yards and 5.0 yppl, which would normally produce around 38 points. I'm still just 4-9 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but none of the close wins were actually lucky,as the stats showed I had the right side in all 4 of those close wins. Of the 9 close losses, 3 of them were games I certainly had the right side in, one I certainly had the wrong side in and 5 were toss-ups that could have gone either way so I should be 5-4 or 6-3 in those 9 close losses. I am now just 8-15 on my NFL Best Bets (18-36 on Stars), but that bad record has more to do with bad luck on close games than bad handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.
I finally won a couple of close games in the NFL and I went 2-0 on my week 12 Best Bets (and 2-1 on the Strong Opinions with the Jets, Seahawks, and 49ers). My 2-Star Best Bet on Minnesota -1 won 17-13, which was close despite the Vikings out-gaining Washington 302 yards at 5.0 yards per play to 216 yards at 4.2 yppl. My 2-Star Best Bet Under 51 on the Chargers-Colts game was also close (50 total points), but that was a great bet that shouldn't have been close as that game went under despite two interception return touchdowns. The teams combined for only 604 yards and 5.0 yppl, which would normally produce around 38 points. I'm still just 4-9 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but none of the close wins were actually lucky,as the stats showed I had the right side in all 4 of those close wins. Of the 9 close losses, 3 of them were games I certainly had the right side in, one I certainly had the wrong side in and 5 were toss-ups that could have gone either way so I should be 5-4 or 6-3 in those 9 close losses. I am now just 8-15 on my NFL Best Bets (18-36 on Stars), but that bad record has more to do with bad luck on close games than bad handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.
My methods have worked very well in the NFL overall this season (pretty evident given my 56% spread record picking every game, 88-69-2 with 16 games with no lean), and the majority of my Best Bets have been good bets, so I'm confident that I'll win going forward as long as I don't continue to lose every close game. I've been down in the NFL in other years and come back to rally for a profit by the end of year and I expect to win going forward - although it may be tough to get back to 50% this year. My Strong Opinions were 2-1 in week 12 and are now 11-13-1 for the season.
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