NFL
For the season I was just 18-20-1 on my football breakdown NFL Best Bets (40-43-2 on Stars) and a very good 28-10 on my Strong Opinions (and 1-1-1 on props). I was an unlucky 6-10 on Best Bets decided by less than 7 points (with one of those wins being the Dallas at New England game that was really not a close win since the Pats were down by 3 points before scoring late to win straight up and another being the Raiders +3 in week 15 when they gave up 2 late TD’s to lose by 1 – that game was never in doubt spread wise – so I’m really 4-10 on toss-up games this season). It’s a shame that the games I’ve considered as possible Best Bets are 46-30-1 (that’s the record of the Best Bets and Strong Opinions combined) while the Best Bets are just 18-20-1, but my methods obviously worked well overall, which is a good sign for next season.
I had a good grasp on the NFL overall this season given that was actually 144-102-6 ATS picking every NFL side (with 15 no opinions), and it’s pretty random that my Best Bets haven’t won. I’ve never had a season in which my methods have worked so well and my analysis overall has been so good yet I’ve lost on my Best Bets. However, I’m excited about the performance of my new math model and I’m looking forward to being profitable next season.
College Football
Despite winning the final few weeks of the Regular season and in the Bowls my College Best Bets were still a disappointing 42-41-1 for the season (98-102-2 on a Star Basis for -14.2 Stars at -110 odds and +12.85 Stars on Futures bets for -1.35 Stars overall), but my handicapping was actually good. Hitting 51% on my Best Bets is actually a good record considering that my Best Bets were a ridiculously unlucky -19 in fumbles lost margin. Fumbles are 90% random in college football, so being -19 in fumbles is simply bad luck and there isn’t much I can do about it. Teams I’ve had Best Bets on are actually positive in fumbles when I haven’t bet on them, which makes the -19 in fumbles even more random.
My 2011 College Best Bets covered the spread by an average of 1.8 points per game (normally good for 55% winners) despite being -19 in fumbles, which is another indication that my handicapping was good. I had 8 Best Bets where I was on the right side with my teams dominating from the line of scrimmage and losing because of random events (UCF, Ohio, and Utah State in week 4, Illinois and Syracuse in week 5, Toledo in week 7, Hawaii in week 9, and Iowa +14 in the bowls). I had my only lucky win of the season and a lucky push in week 7 with Navy covering despite being badly out-gained and Oregon pushing a game they probably should not have. I also had 17 toss-up games that could have gone either way and I was just 6-11 on those games.
NBA
I ended a disappointing season at 206-192-5 on my Basketball Analysis Best Bets and 487-458-11 on a Star Basis (2-3 on 4-Stars, 71-70-1 on 3-Stars and 133-119-4 on 2-Stars) for -19.0 Stars at -1.10 odds and I was -1.8 Stars on playoff series Bets.
My College Best Bets were profitable (158-136-4 and 379-334-9 for +11.6 Stars) but my NBA Best Bets were just 48-56-1 (108-126-2 on Stars for -30.6 Stars). The strange scheduling in the shortened NBA season may have been the problem, as the situations that have worked well over the years didn’t work at all this past season in the NBA. I certainly expect to bounce back next season when the NBA scheduling and patterns go back to normal.
It was a frustrating season, but a 206-192-6 record on my Basketball Best Bets is not that bad for a bad season and I’m still +479.9 Stars of profit the last 14 seasons and have averaged over 40 Stars of profit over my 24 years and thousands of Best Bets, which is more indicative of my future results than my 52% record this past season.
