Monday, August 29, 2011

Dr. Bob SEC West Preview

Early season ratings have proven more accurate than the Vegas odds makers and last year I pegged Stanford as the 9th best team heading into the season (they were unranked), Oklahoma State rated 19th (also unranked) and had Texas (#5 ranked in the polls) as my 34th rated team. I've used my early season ratings to give me an edge over Las Vegas over the years and this year I want to share some conference previews with you. I will also have free football analysis of almost every College game in the free analysis section at drbobsports.com.

Alabama
(projected SEC record: 7.0 - 1.0, 1st Place West)
If the new quarterback plays even close to as well as former starter Greg McElroy played in his first season as the starter in 2009 then the Crimson Tide will have their best team yet under coach Nick Saban. The 2009 team won the National Championship and last year's team was actually just as good despite having just 2 returning starters on defense. The Crimson Tide out-gained their opponents 7.0 yards per play to 4.8 yppl despite facing a tough schedule of teams that would combine to out-gain an average team by 0.7 yppl. Alabama's offense probably won't be as good without McElroy, who completed 71% of his passes in 2010, but the rushing attack should be just as potent even without former Heisman winner Mark Ingram. Ingram's 875 yards at 5.5 ypr should be more than adequately replaced by Trent Richardson, who ran for 700 yards at 6.2 ypr last season. Backup Eddie Lacy may miss the early part of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, so depth could be a problem early in the season, but the Tide should still be very good offensively and I rate them a bit better than the 2009 attack. What makes Alabama my favorite to win the National Championship is a defense that I rated as 4th best in the nation last season despite having very little experience (just 2 returning starters). This year's Crimson Tide stop unit is loaded with experience (9 returning starters) and talent and clearly has the nation's best secondary. Alabama should have the best defense in the nation to go along with a great offense and good special teams. The rest of the SEC is better this season, but getting Arkansas and LSU at home will help the cause and the Tide have the best shot of any SEC team to find themselves in the National Championship game at the end of the season.

Arkansas
(projected SEC record: 6.1 - 1.9, 2nd Place West)
Bobby Petrino enters his 4th season as Arkansas' head coach and his team should continue to improve despite the loss of star quarterback Ryan Mallett to the NFL. Mallett posted ridiculous numbers last season (8.4 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback), but that's become the norm for Petrino's offenses. Excluding his first year at Louisville and his first year at Arkansas, Petrino's pass attack has an average rating of 2.6 yppp better than average after accounting for opposing pass defenses faced (+2.6 yppp at Louisville and +2.6 yppp the last two years here). The offensive line isn't nearly as experienced as it was last year but the receiving corps is loaded with weapons, as the top 4 in receiving yards all return while star TE DJ Williams (the only loss) is being replaced by perhaps a better pass catcher (Chris Gragg). New quarterback Tyler Wilson played spectacularly off the bench against Auburn last season (322 yards on 36 pass plays) and he averaged 8.3 yppp on 51 pass plays against FBS foes that would combine to allow 5.5 yppp to an average QB. Wilson probably won't be as good as Mallett was last season with a less experienced offensive line, but the Arkansas pass attack will once again be among the best in the nation. Petrino's offense also has a great running tradition and the Hogs still have plenty of talent in the backfield despite the recent season ending injury to leading rusher Knile Davis (1322 at 6.5 ypr last year). Taking Davis' spot as the main ball carrier will likely be Ronnie Wingo, who has rushed for 572 yards at 6.4 ypr the last two seasons, and reports are that Dennis Johnson (609 yards at 6.0 ypr in his career) is in the best shape of his career after missing most of last season with an injury. Arkansas was a good running team last season (5.3 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) despite being dragged down early in the season by the ineffectiveness of Broderick Green's 3.5 ypr average (on 104 carries). It won't be easy replacing Davis' 6.5 ypr, but Arkansas also won't have Green averaging a pathetic 3.5 ypr either. Those two backs combined for 5.5 ypr, which should be at least matched by the new main ball carriers despite the less experienced offensive line. My ratings had Arkansas as the second best offense in the nation last season on a compensated yards per play basis and this year's attack, while probably not quite as good, should still be among the top 5 nationally.

If Arkansas wants to compete for a national championship it will have to be the defense that steps up. Arkansas wasn't bad defensively last season, allowing 5.5 yards per play to FBS teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team, but those numbers were not good by SEC standards. The Razorbacks return most of their top defenders from 2010 and the talent level is getting better through good recruiting. I expect continued improvement from the defense, which I rate at 0.7 yppl better than average to start the season - with potential to be even better. Arkansas is a legitimate top-10 team heading into this season (I have the Hogs rated 8th) but playing their game against Alabama in Tuscaloosa is a tough obstacle and will probably keep the Hogs out of the SEC Championship game.

LSU
(projected SEC record: 4.8 - 3.2, 3rd Place West)
LSU was 11-2 last season, but the Tigers weren't as good as their record, as they benefitted from a 6-1 record on games decided by 7 points or less (they probably should have been 9-4). This year's team should be better on both sides of the ball but they probably won't have as good of a record as last year's fortunate squad did. The Tigers' fate rests with the quarterback position, which has to improve and may face the suspension of starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson. LSU is going to have another strong defense despite losing stars DT Drake Nevis, LB Kelvin Sheppard, and CB Patrick Peterson, last year's top collegiate defensive back. The Tigers will also have a strong rushing attack with plenty of talented running backs and an experienced offensive line paving the way. The key to LSU's season will be the quarterback. Jordan Jefferson is slated as the starter once again, but his production has been mediocre at best in two seasons as the starter (5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB) despite having extremely talented receivers. Jefferson may be suspended for a few games to start the season due to some off field troubles but backup Jarrett Lee may actually be a better option throwing the ball and Jefferson's running ability (568 yards on 105 runs for 5.4 yards per rushing play) isn't going to be missed too much with such a good group of running backs to hand the ball off to. New offensive coordinator Steve Kragthorpe had to take a more limited role as quarterbacks coach due to being diagnosed with Parkinson's disease and Kragthorpe has a history of developing quarterbacks (but so did former OC Gary Crowton) and it's certainly possible that Jefferson and/or Lee puts it all together in his senior season to produce good numbers. My models project a slight 0.2 yppp improvement in the passing numbers with potential for a 1.0 yppp gain and the latter would make LSU a very good team. The Tigers will still be very good even if the quarterbacking remains average and they would be a Top-10 team if the pass attack shows top end improvement. However, the top-5 ranking that the Tigers enter the season with is ridiculous and is a function of last year's lucky 11-2 record and the expected improvement. However, matching last year's 11-2 record will be tough given the difficult schedule that starts with a neutral game against Oregon, includes a game at West Virginia, and then the tough SEC West. LSU is better this season but that isn't likely to show up in their win-loss record.

Auburn
(projected SEC record: 3.8 - 4.2, 4th Place West)
Auburn won the National Championship last season despite being the 4th best team in the nation. But, combining the 4th best team with 1st best luck is enough to go undefeated and winning 5 games by 3 points or less is pretty lucky. Auburn will probably not be so lucky this season and they won't have Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton or most of their key defensive players from last season. The Tigers also have to deal with a brutal schedule, so this will be a very different season than last year. Auburn will certainly be worse offensively without Newton, who averaged an astounding 8.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) while also running for 1625 yards on 241 runs. There has never been a quarterback that had a better combination of passing and running than Cam Newton had last season and the offense will digress in 2011. However, Auburn was very good offensively in 2009 without Newton (0.9 yards per play better than average and 33.3 points per game) and this year's attack should be better than the '09 version, which was the first under offensive guru Gus Malzahn. The new quarterback should post good numbers and the rushing attack, while not as good without Newton's contributions, will still be among the best in the nation with running backs Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb, who combined for 1903 yards at 6.9 ypr last season. Auburn may not have the best offense in the nation this season (as I rated them last season) but they should still have about the 10th best attack regardless of who wins the quarterback job (I rate their attack 12th heading into the season).

Auburn's defense allowed a mediocre 5.5 yards per play last season against FBS teams, but that's not bad considering that they faced teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average stop unit. The defense was better than people thought last year, but it won't be as good this season with just 3 returning starters and the loss of Lombardi Award DT Nick Fairley, who registered 11.5 sacks and 12.5 additional tackles for loss. There is a lot of young talent on this edition of the Tigers' defense but there is also a lot of inexperienced players and I rate Auburn's defense at just 0.3 yppl better than average.

Auburn won't win the National Championship again but the Tigers are still be a Top-20 team in talent. However, playing in the tough SEC West and drawing the 3 best teams from the East (at South Carolina, at Georgia and home against Florida) could result in a 5 or 6 loss season if the Tigers start losing close games instead of winning those tossups.

Mississippi State
(projected SEC record: 2.6 - 5.4, 5th Place West)
Mississippi State went from 5-7 in 2009 to 9-4 last season in coach Dan Mullen's 2nd year at the helm and now they find themselves as the 20th ranked team in the polls heading into this season. The Bulldogs should continue to improve and I project them to be a better team than they were last season, but I just don't think they're a top-25 team and they'll have a disappointing season trying to navigate through an improves SEC conference. Mississippi State actually finished last season ranked 20th in a model based on compensated point differential but the Bulldogs were 32nd in my ratings from the line of scrimmage and had worse than average special teams, so finishing 20th in points was mostly good fortune (allowing 19.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play is an aberration).

Miss State's offense was better than average last season (5.6 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack), but that's not very good by SEC standards. The rushing attack should be better than last year's slightly better than average production (4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) with all the backs returning to run behind a solid offensive line and quarterback Chris Relf should continue to improve after being just 0.4 yards per pass play better than average last season (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp). Backup quarterback Tyler Russell is actually a more dynamic quarterback and he averaged an incredible 9.3 yppp on 68 pass plays against FBS foes, but Russell also threw 6 interceptions on just 67 pass attempts. But, it's still nice to have a quarterback than can spark the offense if Relf continues to be inconsistent (he was relatively worse against better defensive teams).

The Bulldogs' defense was good last season, allowing 5.3 yards per play against FBS teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average stop unit, and I expect similar numbers this season on a compensated yards per play basis. However, Miss State isn't likely to give up just 20 points per game again based on that defensive rating. An average team uses 14.1 yards per point but Mississippi State made their opponents use 17.8 yards for each point last season, which is mostly just random luck. If the Bulldogs would have averaged 14.1 yards per point allowed they would have been about 5 points per game worse last season and it's unrealistic to expect Miss State to be so fortunate again this year. That's the reason why Mississippi State is likely to be a better team this season but not as good on the scoreboard as they were last season.

Mississippi
(projected SEC record: 2.6 - 5.4, 6th Place West)
Mississippi was great in coach Houston Nutt's first season, taking a 3-9 team and turning the Rebels into a surprising 9-4 squad in 2008. Nutt repeated that 9-4 record in 2009 while once against putting a team on the field that was good on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Last season was expected to be a bit of a rebuilding year, but nobody expected the Rebels to fall apart defensively the way they did. Ole' Miss started the season with a shocking 48-49 home loss to Jacksonville State and the defense continued to struggle. Mississippi went from being 1.0 yards per play better than average defensively in 2009 (13th best in my ratings) to ranking 93rd in my defensive ratings at 0.7 yppl worse than average (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team). Defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix should be able to oversee significant improvement even with just 4 returning starters but the Rebels simply don't have the defensive talent that they had in Nutt's first two seasons (when he used former coach Ed Orgeron's talent to win). I project Mississippi to be just average (on a national scale) defensively, which is not good by SEC standards. However, the Rebels should be even better offensively than they were last season (5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was not the savior that some expected when he transferred from Oregon, where he ran a superior system, so his numbers won't be hard to replace, and the rushing attack should be very good again this season with top backs Brandon Bolden (976 yards at 6.0 ypr) and Jeff Scott (429 yards at 6.5 ypr) returning to run behind an offensive line that returns all 5 of last year's starters. I rate Ole' Miss as being 9 points better than they were last season (when they were 1-7 in SEC play), but they should still be the worst team in the very tough SEC West and will only win 2 or 3 games in conference because they are fortunate enough to draw the SEC East's two worst teams (Kentucky and Vanderbilt).

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Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Dr. Bob SEC East Preview

I'm excited for the start of another football season and I've spent the last month doing a team by team analysis and rating of all 120 Division 1A (aka FBS) teams. My early season ratings have proven more accurate than the Vegas odds makers and last year I pegged Stanford as the 9th best team heading into the season (they were unranked), Oklahoma State rated 19th (also unranked) and had Texas (#5 ranked in the polls) as my 34th rated team. I've used my early season ratings to give me an edge over Las Vegas over the years and this year I want to share some conference previews with you. I will also have free sports betting handicapping analysis of almost every College game in the free analysis section at drbobsports.com.

I'll start my previews with the SEC East and I'll post my analysis of the exciting SEC West later this week.

Georgia
(Projected SEC record 5.5 - 2.5, 1st Place East)
Georgia was much better last season than their 6-7 record suggests and the Bulldogs are my slight favorite to win the SEC East. The Bulldogs out-gained their opponents 6.3 yards per play to 5.5 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that was 0.6 yppl better than average. Georgia was also +10 in turnover margin and had great special teams play, so going 6-7 while out-scoring your opponents by 10.0 points per game was a complete fluke aided by an 0-4 record on games decided by 7 points or less. Georgia's offense will be led by sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray, who emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation while being named 1st Team Freshman All-American.

Murray will have to adjust to life without star WR A.J. Green, who lifted the Georgia passing game from very good to great when he returned to the lineup after missing the first 4 games due to suspension. Murray was very good in the 4 games without Green, averaging 7.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback). Murray averaged 8.2 yppp (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp) in 8 FBS games with Green in the lineup, so he'll certainly miss his former star receiver.

I expect Murray to be a better quarterback this season but his numbers will probably be less impressive without Green's dynamic playmaking ability. Georgia could get a boost in the running game with highly touted true freshman RB Isaiah Crowell as the main back thanks to the absence of last year's top 2 rushers (Washaun Ealey transferred and Caleb King is out for the season with an injury). The Georgia defense hasn't been too much better than average in recent years but this year's stop unit has 7 returning starters and two major additions in run-stuffing DT Jonathan Jenkins (a JC transfer) and USC transfer Jarvis Jones. Georgia should improve significantly on the defensive side of the ball and their special teams will be among the best in the nation. The Bulldogs should be improved while being very likely to improve on their record in close games. Georgia will go from a losing team to a team that will be a major player in the hunt for an SEC Championship.

South Carolina
(projected SEC record 5.3 - 2.7, 2rd Place East)
South Carolina looks like the most well-rounded team in the SEC East from the line of scrimmage, but the Gamecocks will have to improve upon their horrible special teams if they want to return to the SEC Championship game. With their second game of the season being at Georgia, who has among the best special teams units in the nation, the Gamecocks will need to get it together soon if they want a leg up in the division race. There are no problems with South Carolina's offense or defense, as the Gamecocks return the nucleus of last year's strong attack (6.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.1 yppl to an average team) with QB Stephen Garcia coming back for his 4th year as the starter, sophomore RB Marcus Lattimore back after a very good frosh campaign (1197 yards at 4.8 ypr and 17 TDs) and 1st Team All-American WR Alshon Jeffery also returning after hauling in passes for 1517 yards at 17.2 yards per catch. Garcia can be turnover prone (14 interceptions last season), but South Carolina's offense should be very good again this season.

South Carolina's defense should be the unit that makes the difference this season, as the Gamecocks should fix some of the leaks in the secondary that allowed good quarterbacks to expose them last season. Overall, South Carolina was very good defensively in 2010, as the 5.4 yppl that unit allowed against FBS competition came against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense. The Gamecocks should be even better this season defensively with all of their key components back and with the addition of the top rated freshman defensive linemen (DE Jadeveon Clowney) and the return of LB Shaq Wilson, who led the team in tackles in 2009 but played just 1 game last season due to injury. South Carolina should be among the better teams in the nation from the line of scrimmage and they should improve their special teams enough to make a run at defending their SEC East championship. I actually have South Carolina rated as 1 point better than Georgia, but the Gamecocks face a tougher SEC schedule having to play at Georgia and having to visit Arkansas out of the West (Georgia's tough SEC West opponent is their home game with Auburn, which is not nearly as tough).

Florida
(projected SEC record 4.5 - 3.5, 3rd Place East)
I expected Florida to be a very good team last season despite the absence of Tim Tebow, but the quarterback play was the worst in Urban Meyer's coaching career, including his days at Bowling Green and Utah (even after compensating for level of opposing defenses faced). John Brantley was the top rated quarterback of his high school class and had two years in the system as a backup to Tebow, but Brantley was horrible in his first year as the starter. Brantley did connect on a better than average 61 percent of his passes, but the large majority of those completions were short passes (10.3 yards per completion is very low) and his 5.5 yards per pass play (including sacks) was well below even the lowest expectations (6.2 yppp is average). Overall the Gators averaged just 5.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average FBS team) and the poor attack was too much to overcome, even with a very good defense (4.7 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and great special teams.

The Gators start a new regime with former Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp as the head coach, highly regarded offensive coordinator Charlie Weis as the OC and former NFL defensive assistant Dan Quinn taking over the defense (although Muschamp will no doubt has a strong influence on that side of the ball). Florida still has elite talent and I expect the offense to be much improved while the defense comes close to last year's standards despite returning just 4 starters on that side of the ball. I have Florida rated only 2 points worse than South Carolina and just 1 point worse than Georgia, but the Gators have the toughest SEC schedule of those 3 teams and that will make it tough for them to win the East.

Tennessee
(projected SEC record 2.6 - 5.4, 4th Place East)
Tennessee will be better on both sides of the ball in year 2 of coach Derek Dooley's tenure, but getting back to a bowl game after last year's 6-7 season will not be easy. The Volunteers' offense will be led by sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray, who played the last 8 games as a freshman and averaged an impressive 7.3 yards per pass play while facing teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB. I expect a slight drop in Bray's production with the loss of his top 3 receivers, including Denarius Moore, who averaged 20.9 yards per catch, but Brey was much better than Matt Simms last season and overall the Tennessee passing numbers should be better.

The Vols were just mediocre running the ball last season, averaging 4.5 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) but I expect a slight improvement in the rushing numbers and the offense will be good if Bray cuts down on his interceptions (10 on just 224 pass attempts). The Tennessee defense allowed 5.7 yards per play (against teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team) but that unit should be improved despite having just 5 returning starters. The run defense is still likely to be mediocre, but all 4 defensive backs return and the pass defense should be solid. Tennessee should be a few points better in 2011 than they were in 2010, but they're another year away from contending for an SEC title and they will likely have to win all 4 of their non-conference games, or pull off an SEC upset, to make it back to a bowl game this season thanks to a brutal SEC schedule (they have to play the SEC West's 3 toughest teams and two of those are on the road).

Kentucky
(projected SEC record 2.1 - 5.9, 5th Place East)
Kentucky has played in 5 consecutive bowl games, but I think that streak will end this season unless new quarterback Morgan Newton is much better than I expect him to be. Newton averaged just 4.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) on 145 pass plays as freshman in 09 and he was 0.4 yppp worse than average as the starter in Kentucky's bowl game against Pittsburgh last season (4.9 yppp against a Pitt defense that would allow 5.3 yppp to an average QB). Without last year's top receivers Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews I don't see Newton being better than average on a compensated yards per pass play basis. The good news is that Newton has thrown only 3 interceptions on 191 career pass plays, as he usually tucks the ball and runs with it rather than forcing throws into traffic.

Last season's rushing attack was way down even with 4 returning linemen and stars Derrick Locke (887 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Randall Cobb (424 yards at 7.7 ypr) combing for 1311 yards at 5.9 ypr. Overall the Wildcats were only slightly better than average running the ball in 2010 (4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) and they were 0.4 yprp worse than average without Cobb's contribution running as a Wildcat quarterback. This season's top returning back, Raymond Sanders, ran for just 254 yards at 3.7 ypr as a freshman last season and the Wildcats look like a below average rushing team even with 4 returning starters on offensive line. While I think Kentucky's offense will go from 0.6 yards per play better than average to a bit worse than average, the defense should be much, much better with the loss of only one full-time starter from last year's team. The Wildcats allowed 5.9 yards per play in 2010 (against teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive unit) but I project Kentucky at 0.3 yppl better than average this season. Overall, I don't see Kentucky being much better than an average FBS team, and that's not nearly good enough to compete in the SEC.

Vanderbilt
(projected SEC record 1.9 - 6.1, 5th Place East)
New head coach James Franklin insists he's going to turn Vanderbilt's football fortunes around and he has plenty of experience to work with (19 returning starters plus both kickers), but the Commodores need to greatly improve their pass attack if they have a chance at respectability this season. Incumbent QB Larry Smith was horrible as a sophomore, rating at 2.2 yards per pass play worse than average (3.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) and he was equally horrible last season (3.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp). Smith runs the ball pretty well (429 yards on 76 runs last season), but he's simply not accurate enough (47.6 percent career completions) to lead the offense to much success.

There was hope that Jordan Rodgers could take over, but Rodgers hasn't looked good in scrimmages, completing just 7 of 16 passes for a paltry 43 yards and 2 interceptions in the 1st scrimmage and he also struggled last Saturday in the final scrimmage. It looks like Smith will be back at quarterback and it doesn't appear as if he's gotten any better either based on the two scrimmages. Overall Vandy QB's combined to complete just 23 of 48 for just 264 yards in first scrimmage and were even worse last Saturday. Vanderbilt does have two proven running backs in Warren Norman and Zac Stacy, who combined for 790 yards at 5.5 ypr last season, but the offense will only work if the quarterback play vastly improves. Vanderbilt's defense should go from slightly worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl) to better than average against both the run and the pass with a much more experienced unit (8 returning starters this year and just 4 last year) and a good secondary. Vanderbilt gets Kentucky at home and that's their chance to get out of the SEC East basement.

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