I am looking at 7 or 8 potential plays this week and I need more time to do a complete analysis, so I will probably not have the NFL posted until Saturday again this week.
Basketball Best Bets Winning
My Basketball Best Bets have started out the season well, as I am 20-13 on my Basketball Best Bets and 49-29 on a Star Basis (9-3 on 3-Stars and 11-10 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +17.1 Stars at -1.10 odds (through Monday, Nov 29). You can get daily Best Bets for just $15 or sign up for a 28 day subscription ($295) or season subscriptions that go through the NCAA Tournament or NBA Finals in June.
My Basketball Best Bets have started out the season well, as I am 20-13 on my Basketball Best Bets and 49-29 on a Star Basis (9-3 on 3-Stars and 11-10 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +17.1 Stars at -1.10 odds (through Monday, Nov 29). You can get daily Best Bets for just $15 or sign up for a 28 day subscription ($295) or season subscriptions that go through the NCAA Tournament or NBA Finals in June.
Week 12 Recap
I finally won a couple of close games in the NFL and I went 2-0 on my week 12 Best Bets (and 2-1 on the Strong Opinions with the Jets, Seahawks, and 49ers). My 2-Star Best Bet on Minnesota -1 won 17-13, which was close despite the Vikings out-gaining Washington 302 yards at 5.0 yards per play to 216 yards at 4.2 yppl. My 2-Star Best Bet Under 51 on the Chargers-Colts game was also close (50 total points), but that was a great bet that shouldn't have been close as that game went under despite two interception return touchdowns. The teams combined for only 604 yards and 5.0 yppl, which would normally produce around 38 points. I'm still just 4-9 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but none of the close wins were actually lucky,as the stats showed I had the right side in all 4 of those close wins. Of the 9 close losses, 3 of them were games I certainly had the right side in, one I certainly had the wrong side in and 5 were toss-ups that could have gone either way so I should be 5-4 or 6-3 in those 9 close losses. I am now just 8-15 on my NFL Best Bets (18-36 on Stars), but that bad record has more to do with bad luck on close games than bad handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.
I finally won a couple of close games in the NFL and I went 2-0 on my week 12 Best Bets (and 2-1 on the Strong Opinions with the Jets, Seahawks, and 49ers). My 2-Star Best Bet on Minnesota -1 won 17-13, which was close despite the Vikings out-gaining Washington 302 yards at 5.0 yards per play to 216 yards at 4.2 yppl. My 2-Star Best Bet Under 51 on the Chargers-Colts game was also close (50 total points), but that was a great bet that shouldn't have been close as that game went under despite two interception return touchdowns. The teams combined for only 604 yards and 5.0 yppl, which would normally produce around 38 points. I'm still just 4-9 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but none of the close wins were actually lucky,as the stats showed I had the right side in all 4 of those close wins. Of the 9 close losses, 3 of them were games I certainly had the right side in, one I certainly had the wrong side in and 5 were toss-ups that could have gone either way so I should be 5-4 or 6-3 in those 9 close losses. I am now just 8-15 on my NFL Best Bets (18-36 on Stars), but that bad record has more to do with bad luck on close games than bad handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.
My methods have worked very well in the NFL overall this season (pretty evident given my 56% spread record picking every game, 88-69-2 with 16 games with no lean), and the majority of my Best Bets have been good bets, so I'm confident that I'll win going forward as long as I don't continue to lose every close game. I've been down in the NFL in other years and come back to rally for a profit by the end of year and I expect to win going forward - although it may be tough to get back to 50% this year. My Strong Opinions were 2-1 in week 12 and are now 11-13-1 for the season.
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