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Week 11 Recap
It's tough to have a good season when you lose almost every close game and that continues to be the case this season. I was 1-3 on my week 11 NFL Best Bets while losing both close games. My 2-Star Best Bet on Pittsburgh -7 was an easy 35-3 winner and my 2-Star Best Bet on Detroit +6 1/2 lost 19-35. The two close games that I ultimately lost were 2-Stars on Cleveland +1 1/2 (lost by 4) and 2-Stars on New England -4, who had a 17 point 4th quarter lead and won by just 3 points. I'm now 2-9 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but neither of the close wins was actually a lucky win, as one was a game in which the other team scored late to get within 7 points of the spread and the other was Cincy against Indy, who was -5 in turnovers and covered anyway because they out played the Colts otherwise as a 7 point dog. The 9 close losses I've had have been agonizing and I should be 6-3 on those games since 3 were games I certainly had the right side in and 6 were toss-ups that could have gone either way (I would expect to be 3-3 on those games. I am now just 6-15 on my NFL Best Bets (14-36 on Stars), but I deserve to be 12-9 based on my level of handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.

My methods have worked very well in the NFL overall this season (pretty evident given my 56% spread record picking every game, 79-61-2 with 16 games with no lean), and the majority of my Best Bets have been good bets, so I'm confident that I'll win going forward as long as I don't continue to lose every close game. I've been down in the NFL in other years and come back to rally for a profit by the end of year and I expect to win going forward - although it may be tough to get back to 50% this year. My Strong Opinions were 0-1 in week 11 and are now 9-12-1 for the season.

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