Week 11 NFL Analysis posted on Friday after 10 am Pacific.
I'll post my week 11 NFL Best Bets, Strong Opinions and free analysis on Friday after 10 am Pacific – after they are released to my monthly and season subscribers. If you don't have a subscription you can purchase the weekly Best Bets for $30 after they are posted.
I'll post my week 11 NFL Best Bets, Strong Opinions and free analysis on Friday after 10 am Pacific – after they are released to my monthly and season subscribers. If you don't have a subscription you can purchase the weekly Best Bets for $30 after they are posted.
Week 10 Recap
Just when I think I'm finally about to win a close game, my 2-Star Best Bet on Cleveland +3/+3.5 gives up a TD with just 6 seconds left in overtime to give me my second loss with an underdog in overtime in two weeks. Last week I was also screwed with Philly -2 1/2 on a bullshit personal foul call for a fingertips to the head of Peyton Manning that led to the Colts scoring to lose by 2 instead of 9 (I had Philly -2 1/2). Even the close game I won on Sunday, my 3-Star Best Bet on Cincinnati +7 was unlucky, as the Bengals out-gained the Colts 341 yards at 5.1 yards per play to 256 yards at 4.3 yppl and covered despite being a ridiculous -5 in turnovers, which tells you how good of a bet that was (teams that are -5 in turnovers were 4-126 ATS since 1989 in the NFL). So, for the second straight week I had two very good bets and my record on those games is 1-3 instead of 4-0. I'm officially 2-7 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but neither of the close wins was actually a lucky win, as one was a game in which the other team scored late to get within 7 points of the spread and the other was Cincy, who was -5 in turnovers and covered anyway because they out played the Colts otherwise as a 7 point dog. The 7 close losses I've had have been agonizing and I should be 5-2 on those games since 3 were games I certainly had the right side in and 4 were toss-ups that could have gone either way (I would expect to be 2-2 on those games. I am now just 5-12 on my NFL Best Bets (12-30 on Stars), but I deserve to be 10-7 based on my level of handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.
Just when I think I'm finally about to win a close game, my 2-Star Best Bet on Cleveland +3/+3.5 gives up a TD with just 6 seconds left in overtime to give me my second loss with an underdog in overtime in two weeks. Last week I was also screwed with Philly -2 1/2 on a bullshit personal foul call for a fingertips to the head of Peyton Manning that led to the Colts scoring to lose by 2 instead of 9 (I had Philly -2 1/2). Even the close game I won on Sunday, my 3-Star Best Bet on Cincinnati +7 was unlucky, as the Bengals out-gained the Colts 341 yards at 5.1 yards per play to 256 yards at 4.3 yppl and covered despite being a ridiculous -5 in turnovers, which tells you how good of a bet that was (teams that are -5 in turnovers were 4-126 ATS since 1989 in the NFL). So, for the second straight week I had two very good bets and my record on those games is 1-3 instead of 4-0. I'm officially 2-7 on games decided by 7 points or less in the NFL this year, but neither of the close wins was actually a lucky win, as one was a game in which the other team scored late to get within 7 points of the spread and the other was Cincy, who was -5 in turnovers and covered anyway because they out played the Colts otherwise as a 7 point dog. The 7 close losses I've had have been agonizing and I should be 5-2 on those games since 3 were games I certainly had the right side in and 4 were toss-ups that could have gone either way (I would expect to be 2-2 on those games. I am now just 5-12 on my NFL Best Bets (12-30 on Stars), but I deserve to be 10-7 based on my level of handicapping. I've had years when I've had more lucky wins than unlucky losses but I'm not sure I've had a season as lopsided as this in the random department. Variance is part of sports betting and it's gone my way in some seasons too, but it's important to realize that my handicapping has not been as bad as my record and that should give you comfort going forward as I try to get back to even by season's end.
Click to read the rest of this Best Bets football analysis and don't forget to check back after 3 pm today for Dr. Bob's College Football Analysis!!
No comments:
Post a Comment