[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 7 and Season Recap

Week 7 and Season Recap

It was great to finally have a week without a close loss and the result was a profitable 3-1 record on this week's Best Bets, all 3-Star Best Bets. 

I won with the New York Jets (+4), who beat the Patriots in overtime, with the Buffalo Bills, another straight up dog winner, and with Carolina (-6), who beat St. Louis by 15 points. My lone loss was on Philadelphia (-2.5 at -120 odds), who lost 3-17 to Dallas. Overall, a very good profit at +5.4 Stars.

This seson I am still only 14-14 on my Best Bets for -6.1 Stars but I feel my level of handicapping has certainly been better than that. The Jets' game was the first win I've had on a game decided by less than 7 points to the spread (in regulation) since week 3 and that can't be considered lucky at all given that New York was a 4 point dog that won the game and outgained the Patriots by 88 total yards. I’m 302-216-13 (58.3%) on my NFL Best Bets in my career as a public handicapper (since 2006) and I still expect to have a good season despite the slow start.

Week 8 Best Bets Available on Thursday

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 5 and Season Recap

Week 5 and Season Recap

I had a winning week in week 5, going 3-2 on my Best Bets. The Best Bets were 2-2 on Sunday with wins on the Colts (+3 at -115 for 3-Stars), who beat the Seahawks straight up 34-26, and on Philadelphia (+1.5 for 2-Stars), who whipped the Giants 36-21. 

My losses were both close games, as the Titans (+3 at -120 for 3-Stars) lost 17-26 thanks to a special teams TD by Kansas City, and Jacksonville +11.5 for 3-Stars) lost by 14 despite outgaining the Rams. It was a -3 in turnover margin that was our downfall in that game and that was a very good play given that anything outside of +1 or -1 in turnovers is random. It also didn't help that Jacksonville took a made field goal off the board and came away with no points when all we needed was a FG to cover (or push if you got +11). I added a 3-Star Best Bet on the Jets on Monday night and they won straight up as a 9 1/2 point dog at Atlanta. That game was also posted in the Free Analysis section.

For the season the NFL Best Bets are just 10-10 for -4.4 Stars but we've lost a couple of games the last couple of weeks where I've had the right side (most notably last week with Houston over Seattle) and have had the worst of it in the toss up games. Those things should even out in the long run and I'm sure I'll win a game I rightfully should lose and win a few games because of turnovers. I may be 10-10 but my level of handicapping has been on par with my long term 58% win rate over my 8 years as a public handicapper. Regardless, my long term record is certainly more indicative of my performance going forward than the 5 weeks this season and I expect to keep my record of never having a losing season intact. 

Check back on Thursday for my Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 4 and Season Recap

Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Anaysis Available on Thursday

Week 4 and Season Recap

Even in the best of seasons there are going to be bad weeks and week 4 was just such a week as my Best Bets went 2-5 for -8.3 Stars. I started the week with a 3-Star win on San Francisco on Thursday night and ended it last night with a 2-Star win in New Orleans. But Sunday? Sunday was painful. I lost 3.3 Stars on Pittsburgh, 2.2 Stars on Houston (the most painful), 3.3 Stars on the Jets, 2.2 Stars on Philadelphia, and 2.3 Stars on Atlanta -2 1/2 at -115 odds.

Bad weeks are going to happen no matter how good my long term record is -- I've won all 7 seaons as a professional handicapper despite having equally bad weeks in each of the last 6 years. Last year I was 1-5 in week 11 but was 36-24 in all other weeks. In 2011 I was 1-4 in week 1 but was 39-21 in all other weeks. In 2010 I was 0-4 in week 1 but went 54-36 the rest of the season. In 2009 I was 1-4 in week 9 and 33-20 in all other weeks. In 2008 I was 1-5 combined in weeks 13 and 14 but was 45-24 in all other weeks and in 2007 I was 0-5 in week 7 but still had a winning season by going 35-25 in the other weeks. So yes, I had a bad week, but it's nothing unusual and nothing I'm worried about.

Usually the bad weeks are weeks in which I don't win any close games, lose a game or two that I should have won, and don't win any toss-up games. That was the case this week as my two wins were blowout wins with the Niners and Saints but I lost a game with Houston +1 1/2 that I was clearly on the right side of. 

Houston outgained Seattle by 202 yards but that game went to overtime, and eventually lost, because of a ridiculous interception return for a touchdown. Houston was a very good bet but very good bets don't always win due to variance and that was certainly the case in this game. Pittsburgh wasn't a bad bet either as the Steelers outgained Minnesota by 41 yards and were within the 10 yard line with a chance to tie the game late before turning the ball over. The -2 turnover margin made the difference in that game. 

Atlanta also had the ball inside the 10 with a chance to tie the Patriots late (and they outgained the Pats) but that would have been a lucky win had they cashed in and won in overtime. 

Only the Jets and Eagles were games that had no chance (although the Jets did have more total yards but were -4 in turnovers). I certainly didn't deserve a winning week but the 2-5 record was the worst possible record I could have had with those plays and I could have been 4-3 just as easily. I'm going to have a week or two when I have some lucky breaks go my way, as those things tend to even out.

I'm not too worried about one bad week, especially since I've always come out ahead at the end of the season. After all, 7-plus years of 58% winners is certainly more indicative of my future success than my 2-5 record this past week. For the season I am now 7-8 on my Best Bets for -5.6 Stars.

Check back on Thursday for my Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 3 and Season Recap

Week 3 Best Bets 3-1.  Week 4 Best Bets Available on Thursday

My week 3 Best Bets were 3-1 for +4.7 Stars. I started the week with a Thursday night 2-Star Best Bet win on Kansas City +3, who won at Philly 26-16. 

I was 2-1 on Sunday with an ugly 3-Star loss on the New York Giants and a pair of 3-Star wins on small favorites with Miami -2 1/2 coming back to beat Atlanta 27-23 and the Jets -2 1/2 winning 27-20 over Buffalo. 

The Miami Best Bet was added on Sunday morning and those that logged in when they purchased the Best Bets earlier in the week can log back in on Sunday to get the Sunday update. For the season I am now 5-3 on my Best Bets for +2.8 Stars. 

Check back on Thursday for my Week 4 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 2 and Season Recap

Mr. Clutch, EJ Manuel (#3) of the Bills

My week 2 Best Bets were just 2-2 for -1.9 Stars. The two wins were 3-Stars on Buffalo +3 and 2-Stars on Tampa Bay +3, which was added as a Best Bet on Sunday (and listed as a potential Best Bet on the Free Analysis page until Sunday). 

The two losses were 3-Stars on Philadelphia -7 at -120 odds and 3-Stars on the New York Giants +4 1/2. I passed week 1 so my season total is 2-2 for -1.9 Stars. 

It certainly wasn't the start I wanted but it also won't get in the way of what should be another profitable NFL season. I already see a few great plays for Week 3. Check our main website on Thursday for my Week 3 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.

NFL Free Analysis

As most of you know, Dr Bob has posted informative and profitable NFL analysis in his Free Analysis section for years. This season I will post Free Analysis on NFL games that are not part of my Best Bet package.

An Introduction by Mike O'Connor

Hey all, my name is Mike and I wanted to just introduce myself and give you all a little more background on my career and credentials.

I got my start by studying Dr. Bob’s methods with fellow handicapper, Scott Kellen, many years ago and spending countless hours reverse-engineering what I could of his systems and models. His methodology, which is scientific, appealed to me as finance major having studied financial pricing models and provided the foundation of my interest in predictive analytics and sports analysis as a vehicle for investing.

Remember that sports investing is a largely unregulated market driven at times by unsophisticated money. There are clear edges to be had and none in my opinion more so than in the NFL which is the most publicly bet sport. Incorporating Dr. Bob’s basic methodology of situational analysis, statistical modeling, and match-up analysis into my handicapping I was able to develop an initial profitable model. 

As time went on I developed novel approaches in the creation of systems and models with esoteric new stats that have been able to keep me ahead of the curve. I have an exclusive focus on the NFL and I am constantly searching for new and different ways of identifying small edges in team’s performances. I have conducted research on a variety of predictive subsets in the NFL that lie outside the norm and have identified systems that produce winners with high levels of statistical significance. I also stay on the cutting edge of performance evaluation by watching every game, making detailed notes about performance, tendencies, injuries and other information.

While my record and my analysis have been very good, I certainly don’t have all the answers. I continue to search and try to get better as I add to and edit my work every year. However, I can guarantee you that I will work hard, be honest and act with integrity, and give you a very good chance at being profitable in the NFL this year.

NFL Free Analysis

As most of you know, Dr Bob has posted informative and profitable NFL analysis in his Free Analysis section for years. This season I will post Free Analysis on NFL games that are not part of my Best Bet package.

I didn't have any Week 1 NFL Best Bets but I've had great success early in the season from week 2 through 6 ( 95-46-5 for 67.4% Winners) and I'm hoping to start strong again this season.  

Check back on Friday for my Week 2 Best Bets.

Welcome Mike O’Connor – New Resident NFL Handicapper

After experiencing much success in the NFL for most of my career my NFL results have not been up to par in recent years and have dragged down my overall Football profits (I still have the best long term record of any public handicapper in College Football). I have decided to drop the NFL to concentrate more of my time on my winning College Football analysis and my early season Basketball handicapping.

However this doesn’t mean my site won’t still feature NFL handicapping. Instead I’ve added an NFL only handicapper with a peerless record of success to pick up where I left off. Mike will offer weekly Best Bets and will also post NFL analysis on all other games in the Free Analysis section.

Mike O’Connor NFL Service

Mike O’Connor, formerly of Intellisports, is a situational and statistical handicapper who specializes in the NFL and has a record that has been independently documented. Since Mike started releasing plays publicly in 2005 his record is 286-199 for 59.0% winners and can be verified at www.nationalsportsmonitor.com (2006) and www.thesportsmonitor.com (2007-2012). To my knowledge there is no service that has outperformed Mike over the past 7 years in the NFL. Here is the yearly breakdown (including playoffs):

2006 40-22 (64.5%) documented by www.nationalsportsmonitor.com

2007 35-30 (53.8%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2008 46-29 (61.3%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2009 34-24 (58.6%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2010 54-40 (57.4%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2011 40-25 (61.5%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2012 37-29 (56.1%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

Note: The records above are Mike’s monitored records, which add up to 286-199 (59.0%). Monitors tend to give handicappers the best available line rather than the consensus line and Mike has personally tracked his record at 288-202-13 (58.8%) at an average price of -1.1314, which is higher than the standard -1.10 odds because Mike sometimes suggests buying 1/2 points around key numbers. Mike’s win percentage, adjusted for -1.10 odds would be 58.2%, which is still an incredible record of success.

Welcome to Dr. Bob’s Sports, Mike.