Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Anaysis Available on Thursday
Week 4 and Season Recap
Even in the best of seasons there are going to be bad weeks and week 4 was just such a week as my Best Bets went 2-5 for -8.3 Stars. I started the week with a 3-Star win on San Francisco on Thursday night and ended it last night with a 2-Star win in New Orleans. But Sunday? Sunday was painful. I lost 3.3 Stars on Pittsburgh, 2.2 Stars on Houston (the most painful), 3.3 Stars on the Jets, 2.2 Stars on Philadelphia, and 2.3 Stars on Atlanta -2 1/2 at -115 odds.
Bad weeks are going to happen no matter how good my long term record is -- I've won all 7 seaons as a professional handicapper despite having equally bad weeks in each of the last 6 years. Last year I was 1-5 in week 11 but was 36-24 in all other weeks. In 2011 I was 1-4 in week 1 but was 39-21 in all other weeks. In 2010 I was 0-4 in week 1 but went 54-36 the rest of the season. In 2009 I was 1-4 in week 9 and 33-20 in all other weeks. In 2008 I was 1-5 combined in weeks 13 and 14 but was 45-24 in all other weeks and in 2007 I was 0-5 in week 7 but still had a winning season by going 35-25 in the other weeks. So yes, I had a bad week, but it's nothing unusual and nothing I'm worried about.
Usually the bad weeks are weeks in which I don't win any close games, lose a game or two that I should have won, and don't win any toss-up games. That was the case this week as my two wins were blowout wins with the Niners and Saints but I lost a game with Houston +1 1/2 that I was clearly on the right side of.
Houston outgained Seattle by 202 yards but that game went to overtime, and eventually lost, because of a ridiculous interception return for a touchdown. Houston was a very good bet but very good bets don't always win due to variance and that was certainly the case in this game. Pittsburgh wasn't a bad bet either as the Steelers outgained Minnesota by 41 yards and were within the 10 yard line with a chance to tie the game late before turning the ball over. The -2 turnover margin made the difference in that game.
Atlanta also had the ball inside the 10 with a chance to tie the Patriots late (and they outgained the Pats) but that would have been a lucky win had they cashed in and won in overtime.
Only the Jets and Eagles were games that had no chance (although the Jets did have more total yards but were -4 in turnovers). I certainly didn't deserve a winning week but the 2-5 record was the worst possible record I could have had with those plays and I could have been 4-3 just as easily. I'm going to have a week or two when I have some lucky breaks go my way, as those things tend to even out.
I'm not too worried about one bad week, especially since I've always come out ahead at the end of the season. After all, 7-plus years of 58% winners is certainly more indicative of my future success than my 2-5 record this past week. For the season I am now 7-8 on my Best Bets for -5.6 Stars.
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