Week 5 and Season Recap
I had a winning week in week 5, going 3-2 on my Best Bets. The Best Bets were 2-2 on Sunday with wins on the Colts (+3 at -115 for 3-Stars), who beat the Seahawks straight up 34-26, and on Philadelphia (+1.5 for 2-Stars), who whipped the Giants 36-21.
My losses were both close games, as the Titans (+3 at -120 for 3-Stars) lost 17-26 thanks to a special teams TD by Kansas City, and Jacksonville +11.5 for 3-Stars) lost by 14 despite outgaining the Rams. It was a -3 in turnover margin that was our downfall in that game and that was a very good play given that anything outside of +1 or -1 in turnovers is random. It also didn't help that Jacksonville took a made field goal off the board and came away with no points when all we needed was a FG to cover (or push if you got +11). I added a 3-Star Best Bet on the Jets on Monday night and they won straight up as a 9 1/2 point dog at Atlanta. That game was also posted in the Free Analysis section.
For the season the NFL Best Bets are just 10-10 for -4.4 Stars but we've lost a couple of games the last couple of weeks where I've had the right side (most notably last week with Houston over Seattle) and have had the worst of it in the toss up games. Those things should even out in the long run and I'm sure I'll win a game I rightfully should lose and win a few games because of turnovers. I may be 10-10 but my level of handicapping has been on par with my long term 58% win rate over my 8 years as a public handicapper. Regardless, my long term record is certainly more indicative of my performance going forward than the 5 weeks this season and I expect to keep my record of never having a losing season intact.
So Philadelphia "whipped" the Giants with a +4 TO differential, but the Rams were victims of "variance" bc they had a -3 differential? Stay consistent when making excuses...
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