[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 8 and Season Recap

Week 8 and Season Recap

I was 1-1 on my 2 Week 8 Best Bets for -1.9 Stars, although some of you may have missed the upgrade of the Sunday night game to a 2-Star Best Bet on Green Bay when the line dropped to -7 on Sunday after the early games had started. 

I emailed my subscribers at around 12:30 pm PST and updated the Free Analysis page to show the upgrade. That gave everyone 5 hours before game time to check their email or check the Free Analysis page but I know not everyone did that. 

It's rare for me to have an update past 9 am Pacific on Sunday and in the future I will try to anticipate any line moves that could trigger a Best Bet and let everyone know of that possibility ahead of time. I still thought it was best to send that Best Bet out once a play was triggered and I know most of my subscribers were able to get down on it while most of my weekly clients probably didn't think to check back after 10 am PST and only got the 3-Star loss on Atlanta (+3 at -130 odds).

If you paid for the one Best Bet with a weekly pass then I will email you my Week 9 Best Bets at no charge (just send an email on Thursday to bob@drbobsports.com and include your user name so I can look up the transaction from week 8).

For the season I am just 15-15 on my Best Bets for -8.0 Stars but I'm very confident that I'll have a profitable record by the end of the season given my 303-217-13 (58.3%) record on my NFL Best Bets in my career as a public handicapper (since 2006).

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 7 and Season Recap

Week 7 and Season Recap

It was great to finally have a week without a close loss and the result was a profitable 3-1 record on this week's Best Bets, all 3-Star Best Bets. 

I won with the New York Jets (+4), who beat the Patriots in overtime, with the Buffalo Bills, another straight up dog winner, and with Carolina (-6), who beat St. Louis by 15 points. My lone loss was on Philadelphia (-2.5 at -120 odds), who lost 3-17 to Dallas. Overall, a very good profit at +5.4 Stars.

This seson I am still only 14-14 on my Best Bets for -6.1 Stars but I feel my level of handicapping has certainly been better than that. The Jets' game was the first win I've had on a game decided by less than 7 points to the spread (in regulation) since week 3 and that can't be considered lucky at all given that New York was a 4 point dog that won the game and outgained the Patriots by 88 total yards. I’m 302-216-13 (58.3%) on my NFL Best Bets in my career as a public handicapper (since 2006) and I still expect to have a good season despite the slow start.

Week 8 Best Bets Available on Thursday

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 5 and Season Recap

Week 5 and Season Recap

I had a winning week in week 5, going 3-2 on my Best Bets. The Best Bets were 2-2 on Sunday with wins on the Colts (+3 at -115 for 3-Stars), who beat the Seahawks straight up 34-26, and on Philadelphia (+1.5 for 2-Stars), who whipped the Giants 36-21. 

My losses were both close games, as the Titans (+3 at -120 for 3-Stars) lost 17-26 thanks to a special teams TD by Kansas City, and Jacksonville +11.5 for 3-Stars) lost by 14 despite outgaining the Rams. It was a -3 in turnover margin that was our downfall in that game and that was a very good play given that anything outside of +1 or -1 in turnovers is random. It also didn't help that Jacksonville took a made field goal off the board and came away with no points when all we needed was a FG to cover (or push if you got +11). I added a 3-Star Best Bet on the Jets on Monday night and they won straight up as a 9 1/2 point dog at Atlanta. That game was also posted in the Free Analysis section.

For the season the NFL Best Bets are just 10-10 for -4.4 Stars but we've lost a couple of games the last couple of weeks where I've had the right side (most notably last week with Houston over Seattle) and have had the worst of it in the toss up games. Those things should even out in the long run and I'm sure I'll win a game I rightfully should lose and win a few games because of turnovers. I may be 10-10 but my level of handicapping has been on par with my long term 58% win rate over my 8 years as a public handicapper. Regardless, my long term record is certainly more indicative of my performance going forward than the 5 weeks this season and I expect to keep my record of never having a losing season intact. 

Check back on Thursday for my Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 4 and Season Recap

Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Anaysis Available on Thursday

Week 4 and Season Recap

Even in the best of seasons there are going to be bad weeks and week 4 was just such a week as my Best Bets went 2-5 for -8.3 Stars. I started the week with a 3-Star win on San Francisco on Thursday night and ended it last night with a 2-Star win in New Orleans. But Sunday? Sunday was painful. I lost 3.3 Stars on Pittsburgh, 2.2 Stars on Houston (the most painful), 3.3 Stars on the Jets, 2.2 Stars on Philadelphia, and 2.3 Stars on Atlanta -2 1/2 at -115 odds.

Bad weeks are going to happen no matter how good my long term record is -- I've won all 7 seaons as a professional handicapper despite having equally bad weeks in each of the last 6 years. Last year I was 1-5 in week 11 but was 36-24 in all other weeks. In 2011 I was 1-4 in week 1 but was 39-21 in all other weeks. In 2010 I was 0-4 in week 1 but went 54-36 the rest of the season. In 2009 I was 1-4 in week 9 and 33-20 in all other weeks. In 2008 I was 1-5 combined in weeks 13 and 14 but was 45-24 in all other weeks and in 2007 I was 0-5 in week 7 but still had a winning season by going 35-25 in the other weeks. So yes, I had a bad week, but it's nothing unusual and nothing I'm worried about.

Usually the bad weeks are weeks in which I don't win any close games, lose a game or two that I should have won, and don't win any toss-up games. That was the case this week as my two wins were blowout wins with the Niners and Saints but I lost a game with Houston +1 1/2 that I was clearly on the right side of. 

Houston outgained Seattle by 202 yards but that game went to overtime, and eventually lost, because of a ridiculous interception return for a touchdown. Houston was a very good bet but very good bets don't always win due to variance and that was certainly the case in this game. Pittsburgh wasn't a bad bet either as the Steelers outgained Minnesota by 41 yards and were within the 10 yard line with a chance to tie the game late before turning the ball over. The -2 turnover margin made the difference in that game. 

Atlanta also had the ball inside the 10 with a chance to tie the Patriots late (and they outgained the Pats) but that would have been a lucky win had they cashed in and won in overtime. 

Only the Jets and Eagles were games that had no chance (although the Jets did have more total yards but were -4 in turnovers). I certainly didn't deserve a winning week but the 2-5 record was the worst possible record I could have had with those plays and I could have been 4-3 just as easily. I'm going to have a week or two when I have some lucky breaks go my way, as those things tend to even out.

I'm not too worried about one bad week, especially since I've always come out ahead at the end of the season. After all, 7-plus years of 58% winners is certainly more indicative of my future success than my 2-5 record this past week. For the season I am now 7-8 on my Best Bets for -5.6 Stars.

Check back on Thursday for my Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.