Mike O’Connor’s week 14 NFL Best Bets were 3-2 for +2.3 Stars of profit and he’s now 9-3-1 the last 3 weeks for +15.0 Stars after suffering through some bad luck earlier in the season.
The week started on Thursday with a loss of 2.4 Stars on Houston -3 at -120, who lost 20-27 at Jacksonville. Houston actually outgained Jacksonville 406 yards at 5.1 yards per play (5.4 yppl before that final play sack for -18 yards) to 281 yards at 4.9 yppl but were hurt by a -2 turnover margin. It certainly wasn't a bad play but Houston has been finding ways to lose all season so I'll count it as a deserved loss despite the yardage edge.
The 3-Star Best Bet on Cincinnati -6 over Indianapolis was an easy 42-28 winner (up by 21 before Indy scored late) and the Bengals won the stats too with 433 yards at 6.5 yppl to 350 yards at 6.5 yppl (72 yards on the final drive against a soft prevent defense).
The 3-Star Best Bet on Washington +3 lost 10-45 to Kansas City.
The 2-Star Best Bet on Cleveland +10 over New England was an easy winner as the Browns led most of the game before giving up 13 points in the final minute on a Patriots' touchdown, onside kick recovering and touchdown. Cleveland outgained the Patriots too in a very good bet that was never in doubt.
The winning week was secured with the Monday night 3-Star Best Bet on Chicago -1 over Dallas, an easy 45-28 winner. The Bears did not have to punt once, as they scored on every possession in a dominating performance.
For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 31-27-3 and -1.6 Stars but as I’ve pointed out his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (319-229-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.
I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 31-27-3 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.
I have 32 of Mike’s games graded as being on the right side and he’s 27-5 on those games, which is 5 unlucky losses. I have 18 of Mike’s games graded as being on the wrong side and he’s 1-16-1 on those games, so he’s had just 1 lucky win and a lucky push. I have 11 of Mike’s games graded as toss up games that could have gone either way and he’s just 3-6-2 on those games rather than the 50% that he should be. The complete list of lucky wins and losses and toss up wins and losses is listed below if you want to verify my grading.
The net of it is Mike’s handicapping has graded out at 14 games above .500 yet he’s only 4 game above .500. If he won the 32 games that he was on the right side of, lost the 18 games he was on the wrong side of and split the 11 toss-up games then he’s be 36-22-3 rather than 31-27-3. I grade Mike’s handicapping at 61.5% this year, which is actually better than his long term average, but he’s simply had horrible luck this season. I know you're not getting paid on what Mike's record should be but rather on what his record is, but the point I tried to make a few weeks ago is that you should not lose faith in Mike's methods given how good they've been for 8 years and how solid his handicapping has actually been this year despite his 53% record. And, since I gave that message Mike has been 9-3-1 on his Best Bets the last three weeks with no lucky or unlucky results.
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