[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 15 and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s week 15 NFL Best Bets were 2-2 for -0.5 Stars of profit, which ended a 3 week winning streak. However, Mike's Best Bets are still 11-5-1 the last 4 weeks for +14.5 Stars after suffering through some bad luck earlier in the season.

The 2-Star Best Bet on the New York Giants +7 lost 0-23 as Eli Manning threw 5 interceptions (4 really since one of them was a hail mary at the end of the half). New York's defense did a good job holding Seattle to 4.9 yards per play but the offense was horrendous.

The 3-Star Best Bet on Buffalo -2 was a 27-20 winner but this game could have gone either way as the Bills gained 368 yards at 5.3 yards per play while Jacksonville had 354 yards at 4.9 yppl. Buffalo was the better team but the +2 in turnovers helped and I'll put this game in a toss-up win category, which have been rare this season.

The 3-Star Best Bet on Cleveland +1.5 looked good for most of the game before the Bears' offense got going in the second half and the Browns lost 31-38. Ultimately, the Bears proved to be the better team and compiled 441 yards at 7.1 yppl to Cleveland's 366 yards at 6.5 yppl.

The 2-Star Best Bet on the Jets +10 1/2 looked pretty solid most of the game with the Jets down 13-16 and with the ball late in 3rd quarter. However, Carolina blocked a punt that set them up at the 14 yard line and that short field was converted into a touchdown for a 10 point lead (but NYJ was still covering). A few plays later Carolina had an interception return for a touchdown and it looked like a solid play was going to be put in the bad luck loss category. However, New York drove the ball down the field for the covering score in a 20-30 loss. New York gained 297 yards at 5.0 yppl while Carolina had 394 yards at 6.6 yppl. However, 72 yards came on one short pass that turned into a long TD and Carolina had trouble moving the ball otherwise. This one is tough to grade but the margin probably would have been 6 or 7 points without the randomness of the blocked punt and if Carolina kicked a field goal rather than being stopped on 4th and goal earlier in the game. If you watched the game then you know this game was competitive throughout. But, I don't want to appear at all biased in my grading so I'm going to put this one in the toss-up win category even though I do feel it was a solid play.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 33-29-3 and -2.1 Stars but as I’ve pointed out his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (321-231-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

Week 16 NFL Best Bets Available on Thursday

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 14 and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s week 14 NFL Best Bets were 3-2 for +2.3 Stars of profit and he’s now 9-3-1 the last 3 weeks for +15.0 Stars after suffering through some bad luck earlier in the season.

The week started on Thursday with a loss of 2.4 Stars on Houston -3 at -120, who lost 20-27 at Jacksonville. Houston actually outgained Jacksonville 406 yards at 5.1 yards per play (5.4 yppl before that final play sack for -18 yards) to 281 yards at 4.9 yppl but were hurt by a -2 turnover margin. It certainly wasn't a bad play but Houston has been finding ways to lose all season so I'll count it as a deserved loss despite the yardage edge.

The 3-Star Best Bet on Cincinnati -6 over Indianapolis was an easy 42-28 winner (up by 21 before Indy scored late) and the Bengals won the stats too with 433 yards at 6.5 yppl to 350 yards at 6.5 yppl (72 yards on the final drive against a soft prevent defense).

The 3-Star Best Bet on Washington +3 lost 10-45 to Kansas City.

The 2-Star Best Bet on Cleveland +10 over New England was an easy winner as the Browns led most of the game before giving up 13 points in the final minute on a Patriots' touchdown, onside kick recovering and touchdown. Cleveland outgained the Patriots too in a very good bet that was never in doubt.

The winning week was secured with the Monday night 3-Star Best Bet on Chicago -1 over Dallas, an easy 45-28 winner. The Bears did not have to punt once, as they scored on every possession in a dominating performance.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 31-27-3 and -1.6 Stars but as I’ve pointed out his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (319-229-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 31-27-3 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.

I have 32 of Mike’s games graded as being on the right side and he’s 27-5 on those games, which is 5 unlucky losses. I have 18 of Mike’s games graded as being on the wrong side and he’s 1-16-1 on those games, so he’s had just 1 lucky win and a lucky push. I have 11 of Mike’s games graded as toss up games that could have gone either way and he’s just 3-6-2 on those games rather than the 50% that he should be. The complete list of lucky wins and losses and toss up wins and losses is listed below if you want to verify my grading.

The net of it is Mike’s handicapping has graded out at 14 games above .500 yet he’s only 4 game above .500. If he won the 32 games that he was on the right side of, lost the 18 games he was on the wrong side of and split the 11 toss-up games then he’s be 36-22-3 rather than 31-27-3. I grade Mike’s handicapping at 61.5% this year, which is actually better than his long term average, but he’s simply had horrible luck this season. I know you're not getting paid on what Mike's record should be but rather on what his record is, but the point I tried to make a few weeks ago is that you should not lose faith in Mike's methods given how good they've been for 8 years and how solid his handicapping has actually been this year despite his 53% record. And, since I gave that message Mike has been 9-3-1 on his Best Bets the last three weeks with no lucky or unlucky results.

Week 15 NFL Best Bets Available on Thursday

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 13 and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s week 13 NFL Best Bets were 2-0 for +5.0 Stars of profit and he’s now 6-1-1 the last two weeks after suffering through some bad luck earlier in the season.

The 3-Star Best Bet on Denver -5 ½ started slowly with the Broncos down 7-21 but Denver came back with 28 unanswered points to take a 14 point lead before Kansas City scored a late touchdown for a 35-28 final score. Denver outgained Kansas City 538 yards at 8.5 yards per play to 452 yards at 6.7 yppl and covered the spread despite having a kick off returned for a touchdown by the Chiefs and being -1 in turnovers.

The 2-Star Best Bet on Cincinnati -1 won 17-10. The Bengals outgained the Chargers 356 yards at 6.0 yppl to 324 yards at 5.1 yppl, so they were certainly the better team. Cincy was +1 in turnovers but they also took two knees with 1^st and goal from the San Diego 3 yard line at the end of the game so they could have won by more than 7 points if they needed to. That was a pretty solid play.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 28-25-3 and -3.9 Stars but as I’ve pointed out his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (316-227-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 28-25-3 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.

I have 29 of Mike’s games graded as being on the right side and he’s 24-5 on those games, which is 5 unlucky losses. I have 16 of Mike’s games graded as being on the wrong side and he’s 1-14-1 on those games, so he’s had just 1 lucky win and a lucky push. I have 11 of Mike’s games graded as toss up games that could have gone either way and he’s just 3-6-2 on those games rather than the 50% that he should be. The complete list of lucky wins and losses and toss up wins and losses is listed below if you want to verify my grading.

The net of it is Mike’s handicapping has graded out at 13 games above .500 yet he’s only 3 game above .500. If he won the 29 games that he was on the right side of, lost the 16 games he was on the wrong side of and split the 11 toss-up games then he’s be 33-20-3 rather than 28-25-3. I grade Mike’s handicapping at 61.6% this year, which is actually better than his long term average, but he’s simply had horrible luck this season. I know you're not getting paid on what Mike's record should be but rather on what his record is, but the point I tried to make a couple of weeks ago is that you should not lose faith in Mike's methods given how good they've been for 8 years and how solid his handicapping has actually been this year despite his 53% record. And, since I gave that message Mike has been 6-1-1 on his Best Bets the last two weeks with no unlucky results.

The lesson is to not judge a handicapper solely on his short term record, but rather on his long term record and the circumstances of his short term record should be taken into account, as short term results are subject to variance, both positive and negative, while the variance evens out over time. The season Mike is having reminds me a lot of my 2011 College season, in which I suffered a great deal of negative variance with fumbles (-19) and close games (won just 30%) and finished just 1 game above .500 rather than being 58%, which is what I graded myself at that year. The very next season I was 58.5% handicapping at the same level I did in 2011 but without the negative variance. Variance works both ways and there are years in which Mike or I have won at a higher rate than we handicapped at.

Check back on Thursday for a Week 14 Update