Friday, January 13, 2012

New Playoff Best Bets Available NOW!

NFL Playoff Analysis Available on Friday after Noon Pacific.
It's playoff time, and I have some great insights and sports betting advice available at my website to close out the season! I have one NFL 3-Star Best Bet this week and I'll have that Best Bet and analysis of the other 3 games available after Noon Pacific.

Wild Card Recap and Season Results
Last week I came away in the black with my football handicapping. I didn't have any Best Bets in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, but I did have a Strong Opinion on Detroit +10 1/2 that lost and two leans on Houston -4 and Denver +8 1/2 that both won. Overall, it was a successful week.

For the season I am just 17-19-1 on my NFL Best Bets (37-41-2 on Stars) and very good 27-10 on my Strong Opinions. I finally got a lucky win in week 17 but and I’m still an unlucky 6-9 on Best Bets decided by less than 7 points (with one of those wins being the Dallas at New England game that was really not a close win since the Pats were down by 3 points before scoring late to win straight up and another being the Raiders +3 in week 15 when they gave up 2 late TD's to lose by 1 - that game was never in doubt spread wise - so I'm really 4-9 on toss-up games this season). It’s a shame that the games I’ve considered as possible Best Bets are 44-29-1 (that's the record of the Best Bets and Strong Opinions combined) while the Best Bets are just 17-19-1, but my methods are obviously working well overall, which is a good sign going forward.

I’ve had a good grasp on my NFL sports investing overall this season given that I’m actually 143-99-6 ATS picking every NFL side (my Free Analysis was 101-76-6 ATS), and it's pretty random that my Best Bets haven't won. I've never had a season in which my methods have worked so well and my analysis overall has been so good yet I've lost on my Best Bets.

NFL Math Model 264-206-10
I made some adjustments to my NFL math model, which started in week 5, and the new model was pretty good this year. The sides with 5 or more point differentials were 1-0 in week 17 (Houston) and the math was 1-0 on games with 3 or more point differences from the line (2.8 or more, actually). For the season the games with differences of 3 points or more are now 46-32-1 ATS. The record of my NFL Math Model when the difference is 5 points or more (4.8 or more, actually) is now 264-206-10 (56%) since I started using my model in 2000. The math model forecasts for every game are included each week with my NFL Best Bets package starting in week 5.

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