Thursday, October 13, 2011

Maximizing your utility in sports betting

When deciding on your sports betting picks, you should seek a strategy that maximizes their utility. For the uninformed, utility is a measure of relative satisfaction (ie. success or value for your bet). In other words, it is a term referring to the total return that you can expect to receive from your bet.

In all of my sports handicapping strategies, I aim for utility maximization, because depending on a bettor's long-term financial goals, they can have very different marginal values for their money. Betting strategies can be aggressive or conservative, although in reality even my aggressive strategies are somewhat conservative compared with the ridiculous over betting advice that one will often find online.

Sports betting advice can also either be flat (where every unit is the same) or progressive (where units grow or decrease with the bankroll). For both flat and progressive strategies, bet sizing is correlated to confidence (more confidence = larger bets). Yet where other touts' unit sizing is arbitrary, I size all my wagers as described by mathematically optimal ratios for growth as correlated with win percentage confidence. Furthermore, all necessary precautions have been taken to avoid over betting, which can be dangerous to your bank roll and your bottom line.

You can learn more about this and all of my other strategies for sports investing at DrBobSports.com!

1 comment: