Before I delve into rigorous explanations of how a bettor can gain an advantage against the point spread, it is important to understand what the spread actually represents. Point spreads were invented to keep bettors interested in games between teams of different talent levels - if a perennial powerhouse like Florida plays a mid level team such as Southern Miss, you'll find very few people willing to bet on which team will win the game since Florida would be such a prohibitive favorite. However, most are willing to bet on whether Florida will 'cover the point spread' and win by a certain number of points. If the point spread is 21.5, then Florida must win by 22 or more points for their side of the bet to cover, while USM must either win outright or lose by 21 or less to cover their side. Point spreads are designed so that the probability of each outcome is roughly equal, and are generally set so as to approximate the median score differential between the two teams.
However, skewed public perception, results-oriented analysis, and unsound metrics result in point spreads that are often slightly biased one way or another. While the casual bettor does not possess the capacity to exploit these advantages, I have used mathematical models, situational analysis, significant trends and quantitative player analysis that are far more complex and accurate than anything else on the market to gain an advantage, which is why I have won 54 to 59% of my Best Bets (depending on the sport) over the last 22 years.
How are the lines set?
While the odds makers do to try approximate the median margin of victory between two teams, they also try to reduce their exposure to risk by setting lines such that the public money will fall evenly on both sides of a game, so that they can offset the bets against each other and earn a profit on the juice (cut of winnings taken by the house, explained below) without exposing themselves to large potential losses. Thus, odds makers are often in the business of gauging public perception rather than team performance, and therefore the betting public actually sets the line. If Georgia is 4 points better than Georgia Tech according to my advanced metrics and analysis, but the aggregate public perception is that Georgia is 7 points better than Georgia Tech, then the posted point spread is likely to be closer to 6.5 or 7 points (public perception) than it will be to 4 points (the realistic difference between the teams). This makes my job as a professional handicapper much less daunting; not only can I exploit lines where the odds makers leave an edge, but I can also exploit the uniformed opinions of the general betting public.
Nice post! I've always been confused on what the lines mean and how they are set. Makes it seem like a beatable system once you understand there are outside factors that influence the line makers as well.
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