Tuesday, January 18, 2011

NBA Basketball Season Update

I thought I'd run down the week by week records for the season, based on Stars won and Stars lost with the profit/loss being based on -1.10 odds.


week 1 5-3 on Stars for +1.7 Stars
week 2 5-0 for +5.0 Stars, Season 10-3 for +6.7 Stars
week 3 2-5 for -3.5 Stars, Season 12-8 for +3.2 Stars
week 4 26-13 for +11.7 Stars, Season 38-21 for +14.9 Stars
week 5 8-8 for -0.8 Stars, Season 46-29 for +14.1 Stars
week 6 16-23 for -9.3 Stars, Season 62-52 for +4.8 Stars
week 7 14-6 for +7.4 Stars, Season 76-58 for +12.2 Stars
week 8 18-2-2 for +15.8 Stars, Season 94-60-2 for +28.0 Stars
week 9 12-9 for +2.1 Stars, Season 106-69-2 for +30.1 Stars
week 10 8-11 for -4.1 Stars, Season 114-80-2 for +26.0 Stars
week 11 18-2 for +15.8 Stars, Season 132-82-2 for +41.8 Stars
week 12 17-25 for -10.5 Stars, Season 149-107-2 for +31.3 Stars

As you can see, the week's following my 3 weeks when I was under 50% were 26-13, 14-6, and 18-2, so don't overreact to last week's 17-25 star record. I do the same analysis when I'm winning as I do when I'm losing. The difference between a winning week and a losing week is nothing more than random variance and I'm likely to be profitable going forward regardless of my season record, or how I did last week. This season has actually been pretty consistent, as my worst week of -10.5 Stars. Last season I had 3 weeks worse than that and still ended with a good profit for the season.

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