Week 4 NFL Trends from Dr. Bob

Two High Percentage Week 4 NFL Trends

For the first 3 games of the season teams that have struggled generally don’t perform well when installed as home favorites in game 4. Even more so if they are not coming off a bye week. In fact, as far back as 1983, Game 4 home favorites of more than one point with a losing record that played the previous week are just 27-69-2 ATS.

Play against Washington (Thursday), Indianapolis, and San Francisco

Kansas City’s 34-15 win last week at Miami should increase their confidence after a 0-2 start and game 4 underdogs of more than 1 point are 45-15-3 ATS if they won their first game of the season the previous week. It’s just 5-6 ATS on dogs of more than 8 points, so the record is 40-9-3 ATS when applying to underdogs from 1 ½ to 8 points.

Play on Kansas City and NY Giants (Thursday)

Mike O'Connor NFL Recap Saturday

Updated: Sunday, September 07, 2014 

Week 1 NFL Analysis 
There are no NFL Best Bets for Week 1. All of the analysis can be found on the NFL Free Analysis page. 

Mike O’Connor’s NFL 2013-14 Season Recap 
Mike O'Connor's 2013 NFL Best Bets finished 38-32-5 and +2.2 Stars after some horrible luck led to a 22-24-3 start to the season (he was 16-8-2 from week 13 on). Mike's level of handicapping was actually as good, or better, than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (326-234-18) and Mike's performance in 2013 cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he was, as an average handicapper would be at 47% with the kind of luck Mike endured. 

I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over an extended time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better or considerably worse than it should be. I did not handicap the NFL this season but I kept a log of Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets and graded those games too. Anyone that followed Mike’s plays in 2013 probably already realize this, but Mike's record should have been much better than 38-32-5 given the bad luck he's had, as his handicapping has been just as good as it's been over his eight years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance. 

I had 35 of Mike's games graded as being on the right side and he was 30-5 on those games, which is 5 unlucky losses. I had 22 of Mike's games graded as being on the wrong side and he was 1-20-1 on those games, so he's had just 1 lucky win and a lucky push. I had 18 of Mike's games graded as toss up games that could have gone either way and he was 7-7-4 on those games. The complete list of lucky wins and losses and toss up wins and losses is listed below if you want to verify my grading. 

The net of it is Mike's handicapping has graded out at 13 games above .500 yet he was only 6 games above .500. If he won the 35 games that he was on the right side of, lost the 22 games he was on the wrong side of and split the 18 toss-up games then he would have been 42-29-4 rather than 38-32-5. I graded Mike's handicapping for the 2013 season at 58.7%, which is actually a bit better than his long term average, but he simply had horrible luck early in the season (but ended the season on a 16-8-2 run). I know Mike’s subscribers are not getting paid on what Mike's record should have been but rather on what his record is, but the point I tried to make mid-season is that you should not lose faith in Mike's methods given how good they've been for 8 years and how solid his handicapping actually was, even in the first half of the season when his record wasn't good. Despite the bad luck Mike still had his 8th profitable season in 8 years as a public handicapper by finishing strong once the bad luck stopped, and I expect him to be back in the 57% to 60% range next season if he handicaps at the level he did in 2013. 

The lesson is to not judge a handicapper prematurely nor solely on his short term record, but rather on his long term record and the circumstances of his short term record should be taken into account, as short term results are subject to variance, both positive and negative, while the variance evens out over time. The season Mike had reminds me a lot of my 2011 College season, in which I suffered a great deal of negative variance with fumbles (-19) and close games (won just 30%) and finished just 1 game above .500 rather than being 58%, which is what I graded myself at that year. The very next season I was 58.5% handicapping at the same level I did in 2011 but without the negative variance. Variance works both ways and there are years in which Mike or I have won at a higher rate than we handicapped at. 

I'm not making excuses for Mike's 54% record this season but rather just stating the facts that his handicapping was as good as it always has been. If Mike continues to handicap at the level he did in 2013, and over his 8 year career as a public handicapper, then he will win going forward just as he's won in the past. 

Regardless of whether you think there has been bad luck or not, Mike O'Connor is certainly still likely to win going forward given his 58% career win percentage in 8 years as a public handicapper, so don't overreact just because he was barely profitable last season. 

Regardless of whether you think there has been bad luck or not, Mike O'Connor is certainly still likely to win going forward given his 58% career win percentage in 8 years as a public handicapper, so don't give up on him just because he is barely profitable this past season (although he's won 67% that final two months of the season after the bad luck stopped). 

Mike O'Connor's 2013 NFL Grading 
I have 8 categories for grading games. Most games are deserved wins or deserved losses, which are games that turn out the way that they should based on the stats. There are games that are considered toss up wins and toss up losses, which are games that could have gone either way based on the stats or how the game played out. Then there are undeserved wins and undeserved losses, in which the outcome was decided purely by variance. Undeserved wins are games that shouldn't have won but did and undeserved losses are games that should have won and didn't. There are also deserved and undeserved pushes. 

Here's my list with some details on why each game is in the category I put them in. 

Undeserved wins (1) 
Week 2 Tampa Bay (+3) 14-16 over New Orleans: 273 yards at 4.9 yppl to 371 yards at 5.3 yppl and an 85 yard interception return for a touchdown. This could have gone in the toss up category since the yards per play was pretty close, but it was the closest game Mike has had to an undeserved win so I decided to call it such. 

Undeserved Losses (5) 
Week 4 Houston (+1 ½) 20-23 vs Seattle: Houston was up 20-3 at the half and 20-6 with under 8 minutes left in the game and still had a 7 point lead with less than 3 minutes when Matt Schaub threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown to tie the game. Houston lost in overtime despite gaining 475 yards and allowing Seattle just 274 yards of offense. 

Week 5 Jacksonville (+11 ½) 20-34 vs St. Louis: Jacksonville, a huge underdog, outgained the Rams 363 yards at 6.2 yppl to 354 yards at 5.1 yppl but the Rams had an 82 yard interception return for a touchdown and later in the game the Jags took a made field goal off the board and then threw an interception from the 2 yard line. Overall, the Jags were -3 in turnovers and still nearly covered in a game they might have won straight up otherwise. 

Week 6 Green Bay (-2 ½) 19-17 vs Baltimore: The Packers led this game 16-3 in the 4^th quarter despite losing 2 of their top 3 receivers to injuries early in the game, leaving Aaron Rodgers with just 2 healthy wide receivers for 3 ½ quarters. Green Bay still outgained Baltimore 440 yards at 7.0 yppl to 360 yards at 5.9 yppl and Baltimore's spread covering touchdown with just over 2 minutes left in the game was possible because of a conversion on 4^th and 21 yards. Green Bay, up by 2, ended the game with 1^st and goal at the Baltimore 9 yard line and took two knees to end the game. Brutal loss. 

Week 9 Buffalo (+3) 13-23 vs Kansas City: Buffalo outgained Kansas City 470 yards at 6.1 yppl to 213 yards at 4.2 yppl but were -3 in turnovers with two of those turnovers being returned for touchdowns (one for 100 yards). Buffalo was a great bet. 

Week 9 Houston (+2) 24-27 vs Indianapolis: Houston led 21-3 at the half but lost their play caller, head coach Gary Kubiak, who collapsed heading off the field at the half. Houston still outgained the Colts 483 yards at 7.2 yppl to 314 yards at 5.4 yppl but the Texans missed 3 field goals and ultimately lost by 3 points as a 2 point dog. An underdog that dominates the yardage like that should win and the game and is clearly the right side. You could argue that this game belongs in the toss-up loss category but the week 2 Tampa Bay win that I put in the undeserved wins category could just as easily been put in the toss-up wins category since the yards per play was pretty close in that game. 

Underserved Pushes (1) 
Week 11 San Francisco (+3) 20-23 vs New Orleans: The Niners were outplayed 3.5 yppl to 5.8 yppl but were +2 in fumbles. 

Toss Up Wins (7) 
Week 3 Miami (-2 ½) 27-23 over Atlanta: Turnovers were even and Miami had 5.3 yppl to 5.5 yppl for Atlanta. 

Week 3 Kansas City (+3) 26-16 over Philadelphia: KC was outgained 395 yards at 5.3 yppl to 431 yards at 6.8 yppl but was +4 in turnovers (the 5^th turnover was on the final Philly play on a desperation lateral so that doesn't really count). The turnovers led to 10 Kansas City points (a field goal after a -7 yard drive and an interception returned for a TD. This was not a lucky win since Michael Vick was expected to throw more interceptions that Alex Smith and the game would been even without the turnovers. Plus, teams that are -4 in turnovers average a spread loss of 14 points and KC covered by 13 points, which puts that in the toss-up category, as I think this game could have gone either way if Philly was -1 in turnovers rather than -4. 

Week 6 Buffalo (+7) 24-27 (OT) vs Cincinnati: Buffalo fought back in the 4^th quarter to tie this game with a touchdown with 1:08 left and lost in overtime and while having a 7 point dog go to overtime would normally be considered a solid win, this one goes in the toss up category because Cincinnati out-played the Bills from the line of scrimmage 6.0 yppl to 4.8 yppl, which would normally lead to a win over around 7 points. Plus, Buffalo was down by 7 points and this game was looking like a push when they scored with 1 minute left in regulation. While this was a borderline call to put as a toss-up it was included because I included Oakland as a toss-up loss the same week based on their yardage stats. 

Week 15 Buffalo (-2) 27-20 vs Jacksonville: The Bills gained 368 yards at 5.3 yards per play while Jacksonville had 354 yards at 4.9 yppl so Buffalo was the better team but the +2 in turnovers helped. 

Week 15 NY Jets (+10 ½) 20-30 vs Carolina: The Jets +10 1/2 looked pretty solid most of the game with the Jets down 13-16 and with the ball late in 3rd quarter. However, Carolina blocked a punt that set them up at the 14 yard line and that short field was converted into a touchdown for a 10 point lead (but NYJ was still covering). A few plays later Carolina had an interception return for a touchdown and it looked like a solid play was going to be put in the bad luck loss category. However, New York drove the ball down the field for the covering score in a 20-30 loss. New York gained 297 yards at 5.0 yppl while Carolina had 394 yards at 6.6 yppl. However, 72 yards came on one short pass that turned into a long TD and Carolina had trouble moving the ball otherwise. This one is tough to grade but the margin probably would have been 6 or 7 points without the randomness of the blocked punt and if Carolina kicked a field goal rather than being stopped on 4th and goal earlier in the game. If you watched the game then you know this game was competitive throughout. But, I don't want to appear at all biased in my grading so I'm going to put this one in the toss-up win category even though I do feel it was a solid play. 

Week 17 Green Bay (-2.5) 33-28 over Chicago: This game went back and forth with the Packers scoring last to cover by a couple of points. 

NFC Championship Game Seattle (-4) 23-17 over San Francisco: The yardage in this game was even and Seattle was down most of the game before a second half comeback that got them the 6 point lead to cover by 2 points. The game basicially ended with an interception in the endzone as San Francisco was trying to take the lead. I don't think Seattle was a good play but this game goes in the toss-up category. 

Toss Up Losses (7) 

Week 5 Tennessee (+2 ½) 17-26 vs Kansas City: The total yards were very even at 340 yards at 5.2 yppl for Tennessee and 353 yards at 5.3 yppl for Kansas City, but the Chiefs scored a touchdown on a fumble and had two 4^thquarter interceptions in the final minutes that resulted in made field goals despite not moving the ball on those drives. This game was directly affected by the turnovers and ultimately that touchdown on the fumble was the difference between covering and not. 

Week 6 Oakland (+8 ½) 7-24 vs Kansas City: Oakland outgained Kansas City 274 yards at 3.9 yppl to 216 yards at 3.5 yppl but Raiders' quarterback Terrell Pryor threw 3 interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown late in the game that made the look more lopsided that it actually was. Pryor has only thrown 4 totals interceptions in the other 7 games combined this season, so throwing 3 in one game is negative variance and this game was a 7 point game with the Raiders covering with 2 minutes left despite an earlier interception setting up the Chiefs at the Oakland 23 yard line. It's a godo bet when an 8 ½ point dog outgains the favorite and is covering with couple minutes left despite being negative in turnovers. 

Week 9 Cincinnati (-3) 20-22 vs Miami: This one could easily go in the undeserved losses category given Miami's 94 yard interception return for a touchdown and Andy Dalton's uncharacteristic (i.e. unlucky) 3 interceptions, but the stats, with the variance excluded, would project a single digit win for the Bengals so I'll put this in the toss-up loss category instead even though they outgained Miami by 120 yards. 

Week 11 Green Bay (+6) 13-27 vs NY Giants: The Packers outgained the Giants 394 yards at 7.3 yppl to 334 yards at 5.3 yppl. Normally, a 6 point dog with those stat would not only cover but win the game by more than a touchdown straight up. However, Green Bay was -2 in turnovers and one of those was returned for a touchdown to turn a 7 point deficit into a 13-27 loss. A case could be made that this was an unlucky loss the way the Packers dominated the yards per play but it was really more of a toss up loss. 

Week 11 Cleveland at Cincinnati Under 41: This game featured the randomness of 3 non-offensive touchdowns (interception return, fumble return, and blocked punt return) and those 21 points was the difference as the offenses scored 40 total points. The two teams combined for only 555 total yards and 4.1 yards per play (despite 74 yards coming on one play), which would normally result in about 34 total points, so this actually was not a bad play at all and probably would have won had it not been for the randomness of 3 non-offensive touchdowns. 

Week 11 Baltimore at Chicago Under 40 ½: This game went over in overtime, so that certainly qualifies as a toss-up. 

Week 17 Arizona (+1) 20-23 vs San Francisco: San Francisco got up early 17-0 but the Cardinals fought back to tie the game at 20 before the Niners kicked the game winning field goal as time expired in a 20-23 loss. Arizona outgained San Francisco 483 yards at 6.9 yppl to 375 yards at 6.4 yppl but they were -2 in turnovers and the first turnover set up the Niners for an easy score that helped them take a 17-0 lead. I think the Cardinals were the right side based on the stats and to be tied late with a -2 in turnovers is an indication that they outplayed the Niners in this game. But, I'll call it a toss-up loss rather than an undeserved loss. 

Toss Up Pushes (4) 

Week 11 Tennessee (+3) 27-30 vs Indianapolis: The Titans actually outplayed the Colts 6.3 yards per play to 5.6 yppl (not including kneel downs) but lost a possession when they fumbled a kickoff that resulted in a quick touchdown for the Colts right after Indy had scored to pull within 4. So a 17-6 lead turned quickly turned into a 17-20 deficit. Tennessee scored late in the 4^th quarter to gain the push but this was a pretty solid play given that Tennessee averaged more yards per play and pushed the spread despite a negative turnover differential. 

Week 11 Chicago (-3) 23-20 vs Baltimore: Chicago was up by 3 late before the Ravens kicked a game tying field goal as the 4^th quarter clock expired but the Bears won with a field goal in overtime to get the push. Chicago was a solid play here given that the Bears averaged 5.7 yppl to Baltimore's 4.2 yppl but I decided to put it in the toss-up category. 

Wild Card Playoff Green Bay (+3) 20-23 vs San Francisco: This was a close game that went down to the final play when the 49ers kicked the game winning field goal. 

Divisional Playoff Seattle (-8) 23-15 over New Orleans: Seattle scored in the middle of the 4th quarter to go up by 15 but New Orleans came right back and scored to put the final margin at 8 points in a 23-15 win. 

Other Games 
There have been other games that have been within 7 points of the spread that weren't really toss up games. 

Week 2 Buffalo (+3) 24-23 over Carolina: 436 yards at 6.0 yppl to 308 yards at 4.1 yppl and won despite -1 in turnovers. 

Week 3 Jets (-2 ½) 27-20 over Buffalo: Outgained the Bills 513 yard at 7.3 yppl to 328 yards at 4.4 yppl and won despite a -2 in turnovers. 

Week 7 Jets (+4) 30-27 over New England: This game went to overtime when the Patriots scored late but the Jets were covering for all but 33 seconds of the 2^nd half and overtime and outgained the Pats 384 yards to 295 yards. 

Week 8 Green Bay (-7) 44-31 over Minnesota: This game ended as a 6 point spread win but Green Bay led by 20 points with 1 ½ minutes left in the game despite Minnesota returning a kickoff for a touchdown. Not nearly as close as the final score makes it appear to be. 

Week 9 Minnesota (+10) 23-27 vs Dallas: This game ended up being a 6 point cover but Minnesota was up by 3 point (covering by 13 points) until Dallas scored with 35 seconds left to win the game. Plus Minnesota outgained the Cowboys 393 yards at 5.8 yppl to 350 yards at 5.6 yppl and covered easily despite being -1 in turnovers. 

Week 11 Denver (-7) 27-17 vs Kansas City: The Broncos led 27-10 before giving up a touchdown with 5 minutes left in a 27-17 win. Denver outgained Kansas City 427 yards at 5.6 yppl to 344 yards at 4.7 yppl, although they really only averaged 4.4 yppl when you take out the 25 yard run at the end of the first half when Denver had most of their defenders sitting on the goal line waiting for the hail Mary pass. The stats project an 11.4 points win so Denver was a solid play. 

Week 12 Miami (+4 ½) 20-24 vs Carolina: Carolina scored in the final minute to come from behind to win the game but the spread decision was never really in doubt since Miami was covering by 7 ½ points before that final Panthers' drive. Miami also outgained Carolina 332 yards at 5.4 yppl to 295 yards at 4.3 yppl and were certainly the right side. 

Week 13 Denver (-5 ½) 35-28 vs Kansas City: Denver outgained Kansas City 538 yards at 8.5 yards per play to 452 yards at 6.7 yppl and covered the spread despite having a kick off returned for a touchdown by the Chiefs and being -1 in turnovers. Kansas City scored late to get within 7 after Denver had built a 14 point lead. 

Week 16 Washington (+3) 23-24 vs Dallas: The Redskins lost 23-24 but they led 23-14 midway through the 4th quarter before the Cowboys rallied to win straight up. The spread was never in doubt since the Cowboys scored with a minute left to go ahead by 1. 

NFL Free Analysis 
As most of you know, Dr Bob has posted informative and profitable NFL analysis in his Free Analysis section for years. This season I will post Free Analysis on NFL games that are not part of my Best Bet package.