Thursday, December 22, 2011

Houston vs. Indianapolis: Free Analysis

This is a great week to be in the sports handicapping business. There are tons of good match ups and tough games to pick- Oakland at Kansas City, San Diego at Detroit, and Philly at Dallas are all coming in with under 3 point spreads. This is what the end of the NFL season is all about!

Another hard game to handicap for any sports betting service is going to take place Indy. Indianapolis if coming hot off of their first win of the season under QB Dan Orlovsky, so they have a little momentum. Their offense may finally be clicking it seems. Defensively, they have also improved over the last 5 games, allowing only 5.2 yards per play. This might, however, be due to variance and we could see this stat change as the season finishes out.

On the other side of the ball, Houston is playing some of it's worst football of the season. They've been below average offensively for the last four games due to the loss of quarterback Matt Schaub. This may turn out to be irrelevant though, as they continue to be among the leagues leaders defensively. My sports analysis math model has them quenching the Colts newfound fire by an easy 8 points but I'm giving them 6 1/2 in case Indy's defense is turning into the real deal instead just being variance.

All in all, if you're looking for a game to bet this weekend, you'd probably do well to avoid this one. There are too many moving parts and a lot of variables that make this anything but a lock.

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