Basketball is BACK and Dr. Bob Has the Scoop!

Friday, December 30
Basketball Best Bets +500.7 Stars (at -1.10 odds) Last 13 Seasons!
Friday Basketball Available after 3 pm Pacific.

NBA Best Bets 145-79-2 on a Star Basis first two weeks last 9 seasons
My early season NBA basketball handicapping has been very good since I discovered and starting using my indicators 9 years ago. In fact, my NBA Best Bets are 150-81-12 on a Star Basis in the first two weeks of the season the last 9 years (although I'm just 3-4 on my NBA Best Bets so far this season).

Basketball Best Bets 37-43-2 for -26.7 Stars
I have a few horrible stretches every season and 19 out of 25 years have still resulted in a profit on my basketball analysis. Unfortunately, I'm in the middle of a bad run right now, as I was just 3-5 on my Thursday Best Bets after a horrible night on Wednesday. Normally, the losing streaks are a function of losing close games and 3-point shooting variance and tonight my 8 Best Bets were a combined 27.9% on 3-pointers (39 for 140) while their opponents were 43.7% (69 for 158). My 5 college Best Bets, which were 1-4, were a combined 18 for 80 from 3-point range (22.5%) while their opponents were 46 for 111 (41.4%). It's impossible to predict that sort of variance, especially when my 5 College teams were expected to make a combined 35.2% from 3-point range while allowing 33.4%. My Best Bet win on Cal Irvine +4 (won by 9) was only positive 3.3 points in variance, so they would have covered easily anyway. Two of my losses, Marquette -8 (lost by 17 with -14.4 points of 3-point variance) and Tennessee Tech -10 1/2 (lost by 15 with -15.1 points of variance) would not have covered even if 3-point shooting was as expected. But, my Best Bet on Detroit -6 1/2 would have covered with normal 3-point shooting by both teams, as Detroit lost by 4 with -15.1 points of 3-point variance (they were 0 for 10 while Illinois-Chicago was 10 for 22). My other loss on The Citadel +21 1/2 (lost by 31) suffered -10.1 points of 3-point shooting variance so that game would have been a toss-up with expected 3-point shooting (The Citadel, expected to make 37%, made 4 of 19 while Tennessee, expected to make 38%, made 9 of 22). Negative variance in 3 point shooting is how a 2-3 or 3-2 record turns into a 1-4 record. I did win 2 of my 3 NBA Best Bets with wins on Dallas +5 1/2 (lost by 2 on a buzzer beater by Durant) and a close win on Chicago -8 (won by 10, but could have lost if the Kings were better from the line) and a loss on the Knicks. I'm going to have good stretches this season when I'm winning close games and have some positive 3-point variance. In the long run that stuff tends to even out and I'll be between 52% and 58% like I always am in basketball.

I am 37-43-2 on my Basketball Best Bets and 91-107-4 on a Star Basis (17-21 on 3-Stars and 20-22-2 on 2-Stars) for -26.7 Stars at -1.10 odds. My average line differential is slightly negative at -0.4 points, and I am 10-13-2 on games decided by 3 points or less. It's been a tough stretch, but I've been down more than this and come back to have profitable seasons and there is a lot of games left in this season to still make a good profit.

Last season I had a week in which I was -23.9 Stars and another week when I was -17.7 Stars and I still ended up +30 Stars for the season. In 2009-10 I was -9.5 Stars at the end of January and ended the season +34 Stars of profit. Losing streaks are inevitable in sports investing, even in very good seasons, and I know the short term losses sting. But the long run has been consistently good for my clients over the years so try to maintain the proper perspective.

4 Week Subscription Now Available for $245
You can purchase Basketball Best Bets daily for just $15 and I also have a 28 day subscriptions available and a packages that go through the NCAA Tournament and through the NBA Finals for about $7 a day. Available Best Bets Packages

2011-12 Season Subscriptions Available
All Football and Basketball Best Bets +697.5 Stars Last 13 Years!
My 2011 Football and Basketball season subscriptions, as well as my Football-Basketball Combo Package (the best value) are now available. Should the NBA season be shortened refunds for weeks missed will be given.

2010/2011 Season Results
Best Bets 442-375-16 on a Star Basis
I lost my 2-Star Best Bet on the Under but the win by Dallas resulted in a profit of +3.2 Stars on the series (2-Stars risked at +1.60 odds). I had Dallas rated as the best team in the NBA heading into the playoffs and that proved to be the case. In the playoffs I was 12-10 on Best Bets (despite losing a 5 point dog in OT), 14-9-2 on Strong Opinions, 16-21 on leans and 3-0 on Series Bets for +11.0 Stars (1 Star on Memphis over San Antonio for +3.3 Stars, 1.5 Stars on Dallas over the Lakers for +4.5 Stars, and 2 Stars on Dallas over the Heat for +3.2 Stars).

I had another profitable season of Basketball Best Bets despite losing more close games than I won (15-21 on Best Bets decided by 1 point or less). For the season I was 442-375-16 on a Star Basis (3-2 on 4-Stars, 59-53-2 on 3-Stars and 121-104-5 on 2-Stars and 3-0 on playoff series bets for +11.0 Stars) for a profit of +29.5 Stars at -1.10 odds. Had I gone 18-18 on those close games I would have profited another 14 Stars, so I'm satisfied with my level of handicapping despite not profiting as much as I usually do in Basketball.

Basketball Best Bets +500.7 Stars Last 13 Seasons!
My Basketball Best Bets are 6609-5553-265 on a Star Basis the last 13 seasons, for a profit of +500.7 Stars at -1.10 odds, and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 24 seasons.

Free Analysis
I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

I was 1-2 on my Wednesday opinions. I'm 2-1 on my free Best Bets and 21-18 on my free opinions this season.

Last season I was 12-6 on my free Best Bets and 105-88-2 on my free opinions and I am 38-30-1 on my Free Best Bets and 428-378-12 on my free opinions the previous 4 seasons.

Friday Basketball Available after 3 pm Pacific.

Houston vs. Indianapolis: Free Analysis

This is a great week to be in the sports handicapping business. There are tons of good match ups and tough games to pick- Oakland at Kansas City, San Diego at Detroit, and Philly at Dallas are all coming in with under 3 point spreads. This is what the end of the NFL season is all about!

Another hard game to handicap for any sports betting service is going to take place Indy. Indianapolis if coming hot off of their first win of the season under QB Dan Orlovsky, so they have a little momentum. Their offense may finally be clicking it seems. Defensively, they have also improved over the last 5 games, allowing only 5.2 yards per play. This might, however, be due to variance and we could see this stat change as the season finishes out.

On the other side of the ball, Houston is playing some of it's worst football of the season. They've been below average offensively for the last four games due to the loss of quarterback Matt Schaub. This may turn out to be irrelevant though, as they continue to be among the leagues leaders defensively. My sports analysis math model has them quenching the Colts newfound fire by an easy 8 points but I'm giving them 6 1/2 in case Indy's defense is turning into the real deal instead just being variance.

All in all, if you're looking for a game to bet this weekend, you'd probably do well to avoid this one. There are too many moving parts and a lot of variables that make this anything but a lock.

All About Football Handicapping Techniques

The NFL is among the most popular sports in America with millions of users around the country. Since first beginning there’s always been those betting on the outcomes. In order to get more accurate results numerous gamblers are now turning to football handicapping services.

In order to handicap these games professionals in this industry use a variety of techniques. There are many factors that can affect the outcome of the game including its location, strength of each team, player injuries along with weather conditions. Many will also rely on past statistics and recent trends to increase level of accuracy.

With latest developments in technologies, efficient software systems have been designed to assist pro handicappers with sports betting advice. In the past managing details and stats had been highly time-consuming plus difficult. Everything is assessed in seconds because this software is capable to record enormous amounts of information.

A bookmaker is the person who collects bets from gamblers on each game. When the person betting on the event does not win, the bookmaker simply keeps their money. They will pay off the amounts won to winners, and to guarantee profits they establish a point spread. The underdog is awarded a specified number of points and this attracts bets on each team.

A handicapper is someone who has skill predicting these games. However, even with their best efforts it’s impossible to always be completely accurate. There are instances when a team that’s favored will end up losing. Their job is to try and predict as many games as possible so that their clients can place winning bets.

Gambling upon sports is a large industry that takes in millions of dollars each year. Due to the increased popularity, football handicapping has become more in demand than ever and the industry is predicted to grow continuously in the future.

Sick putting money on poor sports betting choices? Do you want your buddies and co-workers to value your wager decisions? Then check out Dr. Bob Sports for the best in sports handicapping! The world famous Bob Stoll offers wagering tips on college football, the NFL, and pro basketball. Free analysis is available on the site, along with essays on wagering on sports, managing your money, and other helpful info.

Free Analysis of New England vs. Washington

This may surprise some in the football handicapping industry, but New England’s total yards per game margin of +11.6 yards isn’t much better than Washington’s -8.5 yards per game margin and Washington has improved offensively in recent weeks with Roy Helu as the main running back and with WR Santana Moss back from injury. Helu’s 4.7 ypr average is significantly better than the combined average of Tim Hightower and Ryan Torain (3.7 ypr combined) and the good rushing attack has made it easier for the Redskins to score when they get close to goal line, which has been a problem most of the season.

Washington has averaged 22 points the last 3 games after averaging just 15 points the first 9 games and part of that is also due to Moss and quarterback Rex Grossman returning to the lineup. Unfortunately, the Redskins will be without star TE Fred Davis, who was suspended for the final 4 games. Davis led the team in receptions and averaged a very good 9.0 yards per pass thrown to him, which is easily the best on the team. Backup TE Logan Paulsen has averaged 8.6 ypa but that’s only on 11 passes thrown to him and I doubt he’ll be able to maintain that average. The sports analysis I've done on the Redskins says that if Davis’ attempts are spread out amongst the current receivers then Washington’s pass rating would drop by 0.44 yards per pass play, which is worth about 1 ½ points. The Redskins’ attack is still better than their season rating of -0.4 yards per play even without Davis, as having Moss back helps the pass attack some (it was horrible when he was out) and having Helu as the starting running back is significant. Washington is actually just 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively with their current lineup and the Redskins’ defense is 0.4 yppl better than average and has allowed just 4.6 yppl their last 4 games.

I took Washington as a Best Bet last week and the Redskins out-gained the Jets 304 yards at 4.3 yppl to 268 yards at 4.5 yppl and led the game with 5 minutes left before turnovers killed their chances. I think the Skins can compete in this game against an overrated Patriots team with a horrible defense that has been even worse lately with injuries to the secondary. Patriots’ CB Kyle Arrington should return this week but the Pats have really struggled without S Patrick Chung, who is listed as questionable. My math model actually projects Washington to out-gain the Patriots in this game but turnovers are an issue with Rex Grossman at quarterback (he’s projected to throw 0.9 more interceptions than Tom Brady is, which is 3.2 points).

Even with that being the case, my main math model favors the Patriots by only 2 points. That model assumes teams score at efficiencies based on their overall level of play but New England has out-scored their statistics by 4.1 points per game this season. The Patriots have actually out-played their stats by 2.8 points with Brady at quarterback over the years and the would give me a prediction of New England by 5 points. My adjusted point differential model has the Pats by 6 ½ points, so the line is too high regardless of how you look at it so with my sports investing capitol, I’ll take Washington plus the points.

Tough Year For NFL Handicappers

Well it's been a tough year for my professional football analysis this year and it seems to me that I'm dealing with a big case of our familiar friend variance! For those who don't know, variance refers to the random up and down streaks that every bettor faces in their lives.

In the NFL, variance happens mostly because of turnovers, and no sports betting service in the world can predict those! It all boils down to bad luck. I still haven’t had any lucky wins in this season and I’m an unlucky 3-6 on Best Bets decided by less than 7 points (with one of those wins being the Dallas at New England game that was really not a close win since the Pats were down by 3 points before scoring late to win straight up).

That said, I am really just 13-14-1 on my NFL Best Bets (27-30-2 on Stars) and 21-6 on my Strong Opinions, which is still a winning record when combined. (34-20-1) This means my sports investing is paying off and obviously working well overall- which is a good sign going forward.

While there has been a ton of variance and I should be up much further than I am, in reality I’ve had a good grasp on the NFL overall this season given that I’m actually 101-63-5 ATS picking every NFL side (adding in my Free Analysis picks which are 72-47-5 ATS)

For the rest of the season, I'm just gonna continue what I'm doing, but focus mostly on which games to make my "Best Bets". Probably I'll take a slightly more conservative approach on this.