Free Anaylsis Denver Broncos v Oakland Raiders

This should make for a fairly interesting game. The underdogs pose a significant challenge and it should be interesting to see who comes out on top. I post my free analysis everything Friday around 1 pm Pacific Standard time. If you happen to like my sports betting advice hopefully I'll see you again next Friday for another round of excellent games.

 

My math model favors Denver by 13 points but math doesn’t really matter with double-digit home underdogs. Home underdogs of 8 points or more are on a 23-2 ATS run, including 14-0 ATS more recently, and the Broncos struggled to win at Kansas City as a double-digit favorite a few weeks ago (won 17-9). NFL road favorites of 10 points or more are just 39% ATS since 1980 and the record is just 37-71-2 ATS if the road favorite is not off a loss (a loss would give them more incentive) and not off a bye (road favorites off a bye are good bets). The fact that the Raiders weren’t horrible defensively last week in their 17-20 home loss to Cleveland is also a good sign, as that 37-71-2 ATS mark becomes 17-46-2 ATS if the home dog allowed 30 points or fewer in their previous game. That becomes 8-35-1 ATS for the double-digit road favorite if the road team does not have the revenge motive on their side (Denver beat Oakland 37-6 in week 4). The only thing keeping this from being a slam dunk letdown is the fact that this game is nationally televised, as Thursday favorites of more than 7 points are 29-14 ATS (7-1 ATS for road favorites or more than 7). I’ll still lean with Oakland at +10 points or more.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
DEN-Offense	29.1	25	105	4.1	1.00	25	37	0.75	282	7.6	1.3	7.3	387	6.0
DEN-Defense	20.3	26	97	3.7	0.42	21	36	1.08	212	5.8	3.2	5.4	309	4.7
League Average	22.9	26	116	4.4	0.65	21	34	0.92	235	6.7	2.2	6.3	351	5.5
OAK-Offense	19.6	21	83	3.8	0.67	25	42	1.00	279	6.6	2.1	6.3	362	5.5
OAK-Defense	31.3	26	133	5.0	0.58	22	34	0.67	257	7.5	1.2	7.3	389	6.3

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Denver Broncos: SU: 9-3-0, ATS: 7-5-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 Steelers	31-19	-1.5 W	46.0 O	24/26	98/75	4.1/2.9	1/0	19/22	26/39	240/209	0/1	2/5	8.6/4.8	338/284	6.5/4.1
09/17/12 @ Falcons	21-27	+3.0 L	51.0 U	27/26	118/70	4.4/2.7	1/0	24/24	37/36	218/208	3/0	3/1	5.5/5.6	336/278	5.0/4.4
09/23/12 Texans	25-31	+1.5 L	44.5 O	21/34	59/152	2.8/4.5	0/1	25/17	50/30	286/284	0/1	3/1	5.4/9.2	345/436	4.7/6.7
09/30/12 Raiders	37-6	-7.0 W	49.0 U	36/16	167/56	4.6/3.5	1/0	30/19	39/34	338/181	0/0	0/3	8.7/4.9	505/237	6.7/4.5
10/07/12 @ Patriots	21-31	+6.5 L	52.5 U	19/51	71/254	3.7/5.0	3/1	31/23	44/31	332/193	0/0	2/4	7.2/5.5	403/447	6.2/5.2
10/15/12 @ Chargers	35-24	+1.0 W	49.5 O	19/27	59/90	3.1/3.3	2/2	24/25	30/41	309/218	1/4	0/4	10.3/4.8	368/308	7.5/4.3
10/28/12 Saints	34-14	-6.0 W	55.5 U	40/16	226/52	5.7/3.3	1/0	22/22	30/42	305/201	0/1	0/1	10.2/4.7	531/253	7.6/4.3
11/04/12 @ Bengals	31-23	-3.5 W	47.5 O	24/25	70/91	2.9/3.6	0/0	27/26	35/41	291/275	2/1	0/5	8.3/6.0	361/366	6.1/5.2
11/11/12 @ Panthers	36-14	-4.0 W	47.5 O	20/21	67/52	3.4/2.5	2/0	27/21	38/36	295/198	0/2	1/7	7.6/4.6	362/250	6.1/3.9
11/18/12 Chargers	30-23	-7.5 L	48.5 O	25/23	133/53	5.3/2.3	1/1	25/24	42/40	253/224	1/2	3/4	5.6/5.1	386/277	5.5/4.1
11/25/12 @ Chiefs	17-9	-10.5 L	44.0 U	22/30	99/149	4.5/5.0	0/0	22/13	37/26	273/116	1/0	2/2	7.0/4.1	372/265	6.1/4.6
12/02/12 Buccaneers	31-23	-7.0 W	50.5 O	29/21	91/71	3.1/3.4	0/0	27/18	38/39	242/235	1/1	0/1	6.4/5.9	333/306	5.0/5.0

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Broncos. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Broncos/Opponent.

Oakland Raiders: SU: 3-9-0, ATS: 3-9-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/10/12 Chargers	14-22	-1.0 L	46.0 U	18/19	45/34	2.5/1.8	1/0	32/24	46/33	276/226	0/0	3/1	5.6/6.6	321/260	4.8/4.9
09/16/12 @ Dolphins	13-35	-2.5 L	39.5 O	13/42	23/264	1.8/6.3	0/0	24/18	48/30	373/189	1/0	0/1	7.8/6.1	396/453	6.5/6.2
09/23/12 Steelers	34-31	+3.5 W	45.5 O	21/20	119/54	5.7/2.7	0/2	24/36	34/47	202/379	1/0	1/1	5.8/7.9	321/433	5.7/6.4
09/30/12 @ Broncos	6-37	+7.0 L	49.0 U	16/36	56/167	3.5/4.6	0/1	19/30	34/39	181/338	0/0	3/0	4.9/8.7	237/505	4.5/6.7
10/14/12 @ Falcons	20-23	+9.0 W	48.5 U	32/15	149/45	4.7/3.0	2/0	23/24	33/37	325/241	1/3	3/1	9.0/6.3	474/286	7.0/5.4
10/21/12 Jaguars	26-23	-4.0 L	44.0 O	25/25	70/55	2.8/2.2	2/1	26/17	45/32	282/155	1/0	2/3	6.0/4.4	352/210	4.9/3.5
10/28/12 @ Chiefs	26-16	+1.5 W	42.0 T	33/21	136/103	4.1/4.9	0/2	14/22	28/34	209/197	1/2	0/3	7.5/5.3	345/300	5.7/5.2
11/04/12 Buccaneers	32-42	-1.5 L	46.5 O	11/28	22/298	2.0/10.6	0/1	40/18	62/30	402/237	3/0	2/1	6.3/7.6	424/535	5.7/9.1
11/11/12 @ Ravens	20-55	+7.5 L	47.0 O	24/27	72/71	3.0/2.6	2/0	29/21	46/34	350/341	1/1	3/0	7.1/10.0	422/412	5.8/6.8
11/18/12 Saints	17-38	+5.0 L	55.0 T	26/26	120/153	4.6/5.9	0/0	22/21	40/28	284/229	2/0	3/0	6.6/8.2	404/382	5.9/7.1
11/25/12 @ Bengals	10-34	+8.0 L	50.5 U	23/31	99/224	4.3/7.2	1/0	19/16	34/30	119/194	0/0	4/2	3.1/6.1	218/418	3.6/6.6
12/02/12 Browns	17-20	+2.5 L	37.5 U	17/30	85/122	5.0/4.1	0/0	34/25	54/36	344/353	1/2	1/1	6.3/9.5	429/475	6.0/7.1

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Raiders. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Raiders/Opponent.

Free Analysis College Football: Stanford vs UCLA

 

Every Friday I update my free sports analysis. Today I will cover the game between Stanford and UCLA. I believe based on the previous games that Stanford has a better team. It should be an interesting game non-the less.

Stanford beat UCLA 35-17 in the Rose Bowl last week and the Cardinal should take care of business on the Farm tonight. Freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan has boosted the Stanford offense the last 3 weeks since taking over as the starting quarterback and Stanford has been 0.4 yards per play better with Hogan at quarterback (compensated for opposing defenses). The Cardinal are now 0.7 yppl better than average offensively with a good blend of run and pass (Hogan has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and that attack should perform with efficiency agaisnt a mediocre UCLA defense that's allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Stanford gained 404 yards at 5.9 yppl last week in L.A. and my math model projects 415 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Cardinal here in Palo Alto. 

The battle in this game is between UCLA's better than average offense (0.6 yppl better than average) against a very stingy Stanford defense that's been 1.5 yppl better than average this season (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team). Stanford has a significant edge in the season rating of the two units and the Cardinal held UCLA's Pistol attack to a modest 334 yards at 4.7 yppl last week. My math projects 326 yards at 4.4 yppl for UCLA this week on the road. 

These two teams actually played to expectations last week, as the yardage numbers were extremely close to projections, while the final 35-17 margin was higher than it should have been given the stats. Stanford is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Cardinal by 10 points in this game.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
UCLA-Offense	37.7	41	231	5.6	1.18	23	37	0.82	261	7.0	3.3	7.0	493	6.3
UCLA-Defense	25.0	32	166	5.0	1.18	23	41	1.36	255	6.1	3.5	6.1	421	5.6
League Average	27.4	35	179	4.9	0.83	19	33	0.92	212	6.3	2.0	6.3	391	5.6
Stanford-Offense	28.0	35	177	5.0	0.64	17	31	0.91	206	6.5	1.4	6.5	383	5.7
Stanford-Defense	16.9	25	100	3.9	1.00	25	46	1.09	231	5.0	4.0	5.0	331	4.6

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

UCLA: SU: 9-3-0, ATS: 7-5-0

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
08/30/12 @ Rice	49-24	-16.5 W	37/47	350/219	9.5/4.7	1/1	24/18	32/30	296/142	1/1	2/7	8.7/3.8	646/361	9.1/4.3
09/08/12 Nebraska	36-30	+5.5 W	54/36	362/278	6.7/7.7	1/1	22/17	38/31	296/161	0/1	3/2	7.2/4.9	658/439	6.9/6.4
09/15/12 Houston	37-6	-17.0 W	55/19	269/141	4.9/7.4	3/1	27/28	42/60	300/247	2/5	3/1	6.7/4.0	569/388	5.7/4.9
09/22/12 Oregon St.	20-27	-7.5 L	28/41	85/142	3.0/3.5	0/1	27/24	42/35	359/359	0/1	2/3	8.2/9.4	444/501	6.2/6.3
09/29/12 @ Colorado	42-14	-19.0 W	41/30	236/95	5.8/3.2	1/1	25/23	40/35	260/214	0/1	3/4	6.0/5.5	496/309	5.9/4.5
10/06/12 @ California	17-43	-2.5 L	34/42	176/206	5.2/4.9	2/2	31/25	47/30	215/275	4/1	6/4	4.1/8.1	391/481	4.5/6.3
10/13/12 Utah	21-14	-8.0 L	47/27	177/85	3.8/3.1	1/0	15/25	21/35	177/234	0/1	2/2	7.7/6.3	354/319	5.1/5.0
10/27/12 @ Arizona St.	45-43	+6.5 W	47/59	231/243	4.9/4.1	1/0	19/25	29/35	255/292	1/1	5/5	7.5/7.3	486/535	6.0/5.4
11/03/12 Arizona	66-10	-3.0 W	63/40	317/138	5.0/3.5	0/3	25/17	30/30	294/119	0/0	1/4	9.5/3.5	611/257	6.5/3.5
11/10/12 @ Washington St.	44-36	-15.5 L	35/30	110/103	3.1/3.4	2/2	18/37	21/57	229/421	1/1	4/6	9.2/6.7	339/524	5.7/5.6
11/17/12 USC	38-28	+3.5 W	49/30	231/177	4.7/5.9	1/1	22/23	30/41	195/336	0/2	5/1	5.6/8.0	426/513	5.1/7.1

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the UCLA. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or UCLA/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

Stanford: SU: 10-2-0, ATS: 6-4-2

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
08/31/12 San Jose St.	20-17	-24.0 L	39/27	162/89	4.2/3.3	0/1	16/24	26/35	121/199	0/1	1/3	4.5/5.2	283/288	4.3/4.4
09/08/12 Duke	50-13	-15.0 W	23/23	104/44	4.5/1.9	0/1	18/42	33/63	272/341	1/3	1/2	8.0/5.2	376/385	6.6/4.4
09/15/12 USC	21-14	+9.0 W	36/28	201/47	5.6/1.7	0/1	15/20	32/41	215/233	2/2	0/4	6.7/5.2	416/280	6.1/3.8
09/27/12 @ Washington	13-17	-6.5 L	27/31	80/165	3.0/5.3	1/0	18/19	37/37	157/153	1/1	2/3	4.0/3.8	237/318	3.6/4.5
10/06/12 Arizona	54-48	-10.0 L	43/34	260/143	6.0/4.2	1/0	21/45	34/69	357/474	0/1	1/3	10.2/6.6	617/617	7.9/5.8
10/13/12 @ Notre Dame	13-20	+7.0 T	39/43	152/190	3.9/4.4	0/3	12/16	25/28	122/160	2/0	1/4	4.7/5.0	274/350	4.2/4.7
10/20/12 @ California	21-3	-2.5 W	46/28	253/27	5.5/1.0	1/2	17/19	32/31	222/190	1/1	1/4	6.7/5.4	475/217	6.0/3.4
10/27/12 Washington St.	24-17	-24.0 L	37/23	131/48	3.5/2.1	0/0	7/43	15/60	125/337	0/1	3/10	6.9/4.8	256/385	4.7/4.1
11/03/12 @ Colorado	48-0	-27.5 W	37/20	217/31	5.9/1.6	0/2	25/12	34/23	223/51	0/1	2/7	6.2/1.7	440/82	6.0/1.6
11/10/12 Oregon St.	27-23	-4.0 T	35/28	180/107	5.1/3.8	2/1	22/23	29/39	243/205	2/0	2/3	7.8/4.9	423/312	6.4/4.5
11/17/12 @ Oregon	17-14	+20.5 W	44/40	208/204	4.7/5.1	2/0	25/21	36/37	206/201	1/1	1/1	5.6/5.3	414/405	5.1/5.2

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Stanford. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Stanford/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.