Week 3 College Recap Recap: Turnovers and Variance

There’s a difference between a bet that loses and a bad bet and this week I had 3 Best Bets that lost that were no doubt good bets. There are weeks when I lose because I happened to be on the wrong side of some games but this week I was on the right side of 6 of my 7 Best Bets and went 3-4 on those Best Bets thanks to random bad luck. In the tough world of sport betting advice, the only thing you can do is chalk this up to variance.

The bad fortune started on Friday night as my Best Bet on Central Florida +3 lost by 7 despite UCF out-gaining BYU 400 yards at 6.3 yards per play to 260 yards at 5.4 yppl. You can lose games when your team dominates when you lose 2 fumbles and the other team loses none, which happened in this game, and when the other team returns a kick for a touchdown. Fumbles are 90% random, so being -2 in fumbles lost is just bad luck and there is no doubt that UCF was the right side in that game and should have won easily as the underdog if not for the random miscues. On Saturday Ohio, a 4 ½ point underdog, averaged 7.1 yppl while Rutgers averaged just 5.3 yppl but the Bobcats fumbled 4 balls away (just 1 lost fumble for Rutgers) and didn’t cover despite dominating from the line of scrimmage by 1.8 yppl. Despite those two undeserved losses I still had a chance at a winning record for the week with my late game on Utah State but the Aggies managed to lose despite out-gaining Colorado State 5.5 yppl to 3.1 yppl. The reason, as you may have guessed, was 4 fumbles lost by Utah State and just 1 turnover by Colorado State. A difference of 2.4 yppl would normally result in a 13 or 14 point win, so it was certainly no guarantee that the Aggies would have covered at -9 ½ without the -3 in fumbles, but it is certainly at least 60% likely that they would have covered had it not been for the randomness of fumbles working against them. This is what can sometimes make sports analysis frustrating.

So, there were 3 games that I had the right side on and lost and the randomness of fumbles was the difference between a great 6-1 day a losing 3-4 day on my Best Bets. Overall, I was a ridiculous -11 in fumble margin on my 7 Best Bets, worth about 44 points (a turnover is worth about 4 points), and my teams still were a combined +11 in point spread differential. I’m not making excuses for losing, as I readily admit when I lose a game in which I had the wrong side in, but fumbles are a reason for losses that in the case of the 3 games mentioned above were undeserved losses in which I certainly had the right side. That’s why there is no such thing as a lock and I will win considerably more games than I lose over the long run when turnovers tend to even out.

In other Best Bets, SMU -21 ½ dominated Memphis 42-0 while out-gaining the Tigers 522 yards at 7.2 yppl to 139 yards at 3.4 yppl and covering easily despite being -3 in turnover margin. Illinois -12 ½ only won by 3 points although they played pretty close to expected with 463 yards at 5.9 yppl while allowing 341 yards at 4.9 yppl but being -1 in turnovers hurt their chances of covering – although I don’t consider that an unlucky loss. Georgia -9 won 27-13 over Ole Miss but the Bulldogs dominated by more than that score, as they out-gained the Rebels 475 yards at 5.8 yppl to 183 yards 3.3 yppl. That game was closer than it should have been because Ole Miss returned a punt for a touchdown and Georgia missed 3 field goals, but at least Georgia covered despite their special teams meltdowns. My Best Bet on Bowling Green +4 ½ was an easy winner, as the Falcons won 37-23 while out-gaining Miami-Ohio 310 yards at 5.0 yppl to 308 yards at just 3.8 yppl. Overall, a very good day of handicapping with my Best Bets being the right side in 6 of 7 games, but good handicapping doesn’t always lead to good result when the randomness of fumbles is -11 against you. I’ll have a great year if I keep betting games like the 7 Best Bets I played this weekend, as it’s highly unlikely that turnovers will be against me in the future like they were this weekend.

I was a frustrating 3-4 on my week 4 Best Bets and 7-11 on a Star Basis and just 1-3 on my Strong Opinions. For the season my Best Bets are 6-7 on 14-19 on a Star Basis and my Strong Opinions are 12-13. Thanks to my bad fortune on turnovers in week 4 I am now down 6.9 Stars at -1.10 odds (instead of being 22-11 on Best Bets and +9.9 Stars had I won the 3 Best Bets I lost due to fumbles) but I'm going to have about 100 Best Bets over the course of the season and I'm going to have a great season if I keep picking games like I picked last weekend. That's pretty likely given my 57% lifetime record on my College Best Bets

Of course for all of your college football analysis needs, you can always visit DrBobSports.com

Marquee Week 3 Matchup: Eagles vs. Giants

Eagles QB Michael Vick left last week's game against the Atlanta Falcons after a vicious hit, in which he was clocked and then fell awkwardly into his own lineman. He struggled to stand and then spit blood as he walked to the sideline. It goes to show the toughness of professional athletes, however, as Vick has been all but cleared to play this weekend. In a fierce rivalry, Vick's Eagles will face Eli Manning and the Giants in a conference matchup.

With Vick healthy and the triple threat of RB LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson and Jeremey Maclin, the Eagles will simply be too much to handle. The offensive weapons on the Giants side of the ball pale in comparison, and the Eagles defense is much stronger. The 7.5-point spread should be easily covered by the Eagles as they run out to an early lead.

For more free analysis plus Best Bets for Week 3 of the 2011 NFL season, head over to the ultimate resource for sports handicapping.

New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys

Although the Dallas Cowboys have long been known as "America's Team," the sentimental favorite tonight may very well be the Jets as the entire world turns toward New York today to remember the tragic events of September 11, 2001.

After the somber and emotional pregame events conclude at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., though, two of the organizations boasting some of the most bombastic characters in the NFL will take the field.

Rex Ryan's Jets have reached back-to-back AFC Championship Games and are looking to finally reach the Super Bowl. For their part, the 'Boys are just looking to regain contender status. And a large, physically and otherwise, reason they feel confident that they can accomplish that goal is Rex's brother, Rob. The long-haired Ryan brother has come down to Dallas to take over the defense. But can Rob and the revamped Cowboys' defense embarras Jets QB Mark Sanchez any more than those GQ photos?

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Dr. Bob's Big 12 Preview

My early season ratings have proven more accurate than the Vegas odds makers and last year I pegged Stanford as the 9th best team heading into the season (they were unranked), Oklahoma State rated 19th (also unranked) and had Texas (#5 ranked in the polls) as my 34th rated team. I've used my early season ratings to give me an edge over Las Vegas over the years and this year I want to share some conference previews with you. I will also have free analysis of almost every College game in the free analysis section at drbobsports.com.

Oklahoma
(projected Big 12 record: 7.5 - 1.5, 1st Place)
Oklahoma's fast break style of football leads to a lot of plays per game and more plays against bad teams usually leads to bigger blowout wins and makes the Sooners appear to be more impressive than they actually are when looking at their average point margin and computer ratings. However, Oklahoma is generally not as impressive when faced with a quality opponent. Last season the Sooners were very lucky to go 5-0 on games decided by 7 points or less and they only out-scored their 6 good opponents (Florida State, Air Force, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska) by an average of 3.2 points, a number that is was skewed by their 30 point win over Florida State. Aside from that early season blowout over the Seminoles, Oklahoma didn't beat a good team by more than 6 points. Oklahoma is the pre-season #1 team in the polls but I'm not convinced. I actually rate the Sooners as being considerably better on both sides of the ball than they were last season, as the rushing attack should finally contribute again after two seasons of bad rushing numbers (just 4.1 yards per rushing play last season against teams that would combine to allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) and quarterback Landry Jones should continue to improve with star receivers Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills back for another campaign. The defense will be without their top defender, LB Travis Lewis, for the first part of the season due to a broken foot, but I still rate that unit as a bit better overall than they were last season. The Sooners should go from mediocre against the run (5.1 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp) to better than average while the pass defense remains very strong (after giving up a ton of passing yards in week 1 against Utah State the Sooners yielded just 4.9 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average defense). Oklahoma should also be better in special teams this season after an off year in that department and overall I think the Sooners will be 3 or 4 points better than a year ago (and a bit better later in the season if Lewis returns to his old form after recovering from his injury). However, I thought the Sooners were an overrated team last season and they are not deserving of the #1 ranking (I rate them at #5).

Oklahoma State
(projected Big 12 record: 6.5 - 2.5, 2nd Place)
Oklahoma State was a team that I identified as one of the most underrated teams in the nation heading into last season and the Cowboys went from out-scoring their opponents by 6.7 points in 2009 to out-scoring them by 17.8 points last season. With 9 returning starters on offense, including All-Big 12 QB Brandon Weeden, All-American WR Justin Blackmon, and all 5 offensive linemen, the Cowboys should once again be one of the best offensive teams in the nation after ranking 10th in my ratings last season. The rushing attack may regress a little without RB Kendall Hunter (1548 yards at 5.7 ypr), but the offensive line should be even better and the pass attack will be potent again. What many don't realize is how good Oklahoma State's defense was last season. The Cowboys gave up a mediocre 26.4 points, but they only allowed 5.0 yards per play despite facing teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Bill Young only has 5 returning starters to work with but he had just 4 returning last season and just 5 in his first season running the defense in '09. Both of Young's previous defensive units were good (0.6 yppl better than average last year and 0.7 yppl better than average in 2009) with similar experience and talent and I expect this year's stop unit to be just as good as they were in 2010. Oklahoma State is a legitimate Top 10 team and they have a very good chance to be on top of the Big 12 this season after tying for the division title last year (getting Oklahoma at home to end the season helps).

Texas A&M
(projected Big 12 record: 6.3 - 2.7, 3rd Place)
Texas A&M returns 18 starters from last year's team that won 6 of their last 7 games with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback after veteran Jerrod Johnson struggled early in the season. Tannehill returns along with 9 other offensive starters and the Aggies' attack will be better. However, I don't rate A&M's offense as highly as other top teams in the Big 12 so it will be up to a very good defense to catapult the Aggies into the conference championship hunt. Texas A&M turned their defensive fortunes around last season with the hiring of defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter, who had good defensive teams with lesser talent at Air Force. DeRuyter's switch to a 3-4 defense worked very well as the Aggies went from being 0.4 yards per play worse than average in 2009 to being 0.9 yppl better than average last season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team). This year's defense loses Butkus Award winner LB Von Miller to the NFL (a 1st round draft pick) but 8 defensive starters do return and my model projects a similarly good stop unit this season despite the loss of Miller. The Aggies are getting a lot of preseason hype this season and they may be a bit overrated, but playing 3 of their 4 toughest conference opponents at home (Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas) should keep them in the Big 12 race until their big game at Oklahoma rolls around in early November (and I don't think the Sooners are as good as others do).

Missouri
(projected Big 12 record: 5.8 - 3.2, 4th Place)
Most people think the loss of quarterback Blaine Gabbert, a 1st round NFL draft pick (what a bad move that was by Jacksonville), will lead to Missouri being a worse team this season after going 10-3 in 2010. However, I think Missouri's offense will probably be better without Gabbert, who averaged a modest 6.1 yards per pass play last season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) after having a very good 2009 season. Missouri passing rating last season with Gabbert was easily the worst since 2005 and I expect the passing numbers to improve with James Franklin taking over behind center. The very good rushing numbers (5.3 yards per rushing play against teams that would combine to allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) should be better as well given Franklin's better running skills (Gabbert ran for 372 yards on 90 runs for just 4.1 yprp) and the return of all 3 of last year's running backs, who combined for 1376 yards at 5.5 ypr and 17 touchdowns. The defense has been 0.3 yppl better than average in each of defensive coordinator Dave Steckel's first two seasons and I expect that unit to be about the same this season -- although with a much better run defense and a worse pass defense. Missouri looks like a better overall team from the line of scrimmage this season but the Tigers probably won't be +11 in turnover margin again and last year's 16.1 points allowed per game was a mirage given how mediocre their defense was overall (their 22.2 yards per point was among the best (i.e. luckiest) in the nation). Missouri is certainly not as good as the top 3 teams in the Big 12, but getting Texas at home should result in a 4th place finish.

Texas
(projected Big 12 record: 5.6 - 3.4, 5th Place)
Texas started last season ranked #5 in the polls but my 2010 preseason ratings pegged Texas as an overrated team that shouldn't even have been in the Top 25. It turns out that the Longhorns were even worse than I thought they'd be and they ended the season rated 46th in my ratings. Texas has too much talent, and an overhauled coaching staff intent on getting the most out of that talent, and the Longhorns will be better. How much better depends on the quarterback play. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert has great tools but he made bad decisions and isn't good at reading defenses. The result was a pass attack that averaged just 5.7 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and 17 interceptions in 12 games. The receiving corps also hasn't lived up to expectations and that group has been thinned by graduation (2 of the top 3 in receiving yards are gone) and the decision of two projected veteran wideouts (Malcolm Williams and Marquise Goodwin) to take this season off. Gilbert reportedly has been horrible in practice and in the first scrimmage and he may lose his job to talented freshman David Ash, who has looked good in August. The running backs and offensive line are nothing special and I project the offense to be worse than average again (0.4 yards per play worse than average last season) if Gilbert is the starting quarterback. The Longhorns' defense was good last season, allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) and that unit looks to be about the same this season with a better run defense and a worse pass defense. There is, of course, plenty of upside potential defensively. New defensive coordinator Manny Diaz greatly improved Mississippi State's defense last season in his only year on that staff and he's got great talent to work with on this team. Texas should also be better in special teams and an attitude change will keep the Longhorns from losing to mediocre teams like they did last season (UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State all beat the Horns in 2010). Texas is going to better and they could be very good if Gilbert loses his job and the defense plays up to their potential.

Baylor
(projected Big 12 record: 3.9 - 5.1, 6th Place)
Baylor had my 11th ranked offense last season and should be in the Top-15 or 20 this season despite losing top rusher Jay Finley and LT Danny Watkins, a 1st round NFL draft pick. RB Finley (1218 yards at 6.2 ypr) is gone but Jarred Salubi has racked up 513 yards last 2 seasons at 6.8 ypr and Terrance Ganaway ran for 295 at 6.4 ypr last season. Robert Griffin III came back last season after missing most of the 2009 season and he continued to be impressive both throwing the ball (7.2 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and running it (755 yards on 129 runs ( for 5.9 yards per rushing play). Griffin has also thown just 11 career interceptions on 790 pass attempts and he may be the most talented quarterback in the Big 12 (Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden put up big numbers but they also have better supporting casts). Losing big play WR Josh Gordon, who quit the team after being suspended, will hurt, as his 17.0 yards per catch was by far the best on the team last season, and the offense probably won't be quite as good as it was last season (6.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) but the Bears' attack will still be very good. Defense is the issue for Baylor, as that unit surrendered 32.8 points at 6.1 yppl last season (against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). New defensive coordinator Phil Bennett should improve that unit but the Bears still figure to have a worse than average defense (on a national scale) and certainly one of the Big 12's worst stop units. If Bennett improves the defense more than expected then Baylor could pull a few surprises and have a winning conference record for the first time in memory, but I'll call for them to fall a game short of that accomplishment.

Texas Tech
(projected Big 12 record: 3.3 - 5.7, 7th Place)
Texas Tech was 8-5 last season but the Red Raiders were a pretty average team (out-gained by 14 yards per game) that was lucky to win all 4 games that were decided by 7 points or less. The Red Raiders look like a better team this season with an improved ground attack (all 5 offensive linemen return and the talent at running back is good) and what should be a better pass attack after last season's mediocre numbers (5.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average team). The Red Raiders' biggest improvement should come on the defensive side of the ball, as former TCU assistant Chad Glasgow was brought in to install the Horned Frogs' successful 4-2-5 scheme after last year's Tech stop unit gave up 5.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. I expect improvement but the talent level on defense is pretty average and I'm not sure the new scheme can hide that fact. Overall, Texas Tech should be a better team in year 2 of the Tommy Tuberville era but they probably won't win 8 games again unless they continue to win every close contest.

Kansas State
(projected Big 12 record: 2.8 - 6.2, 8th Place)
Kansas State managed to go 6-6 and out-score their FBS opponents 32.4 points to 29.5 points last season despite being out-gained 370 yards at 5.7 yards per play to 450 yards at 6.7 yppl allowed. That Bill Snyder is a heck of a coach to pull off that sort of trick but Kansas State isn't likely to make it back to a bowl game this season despite being a better team. The offense probably won't be quite as good as it was last season unless new quarterback Collin Klein becomes a proven passer. Klein has only 18 pass attempts on his resume while running the ball 69 times for 465 yards. Klein reportedly has looked good in camp and his running ability will help offset the loss of RB Daniel Thomas, who ran for 1585 yards at 5.3 ypr last season. Klein will probably do a decent job throwing the football and the rushing attack should be good, so the Wildcats' offense should be good again (I rate them slightly worse than last season). Obviously the problem is on the defensive side of the ball, but that unit should be much better with experienced defensive backs and the addition of Miami transfer LB Arthur Brown, who figures to make a huge impact in the middle of the field. Kansas State should be considerably better defensively this season, but they will still probably be worse than average on the stop side of the ball and just a point or two better than average overall this season. That's not likely to be enough to get them to the .500 mark this season unless Snyder has more magic tricks up his sleeve.

Iowa State
(projected Big 12 record: 2.3 - 6.7, 9th Place)
Iowa State offense was bad last season (4.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and lose the Cyclones will be without last year's top back Alexander Robinson (946 yards at 4.7 ypr) and 3 year starting QB Austen Arnaud. The rushing attack should be decent even without Robinson, as the other backs actually had a slightly high ypr and new lead back Shontrelle Johnson ran for 218 yards at 6.2 ypr as a freshman. Arnaud had his worst season last year (5.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and backup Jerome Tiller continued his horrible career performance when Arnaud was injured. Tiller has completed only 52% of his 155 career passes while getting sacked way too often and averaging a pathetic 3.7 yppp on 172 pass plays (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB). Tiller runs pretty well (406 yards on 69 runs for 5.9 yprp) but that's not enough to make up for his horrendous passing numbers. Junior Steele Jantz should get the starting gig and I expect his numbers to suffer, despite his cool name, thanks to a poor receiving corps with no big play threats. Jantz probably will be a bit worse than Arnaud was last season but the Cyclones overall pass rating will be slightly higher than last year's team numbers, which were dragged down by Tiller. The offense should be just as bad as it was last season and it will be worse if Tiller gets under center. The Iowa State defense has improved significantly in each of head coach Paul Rhoads' first two seasons, going from 1.1 yards per play worse than average in 2008 to 0.6 yppl worse than average in Rhoads' first season to just 0.1 yppl worse than average last season. The Cyclones have 7 returning defensive starters, including 5 of last year's top 6 tacklers, and I rate the ISU defense at 0.2 yppl better than average heading into this season with potential to be better. Iowa State does have better than average special teams and overall the Cyclones look like an average to slightly worse than average FBS team, which isn't nearly good enough to compete in the Big 12 most weeks.

Kansas
(projected Big 12 record: 1.0 - 8.0, 10th Place)
Turner Gill turned around the dormant program at Buffalo, but Kansas was horrible in Gill's first season in Lawrence. The Jayhawks started the Gill era with a 3-6 home loss to Division 1AA North Dakota State and they were outscored by an average of 17.1 points to 34.4 points for the season. The Kansas offense was horrible last season (4.3 yards per play against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) but the pass attack should improve in Gill's 2nd season. Gill's first team at Buffalo in 2006 was 1.3 yards per play worse than average, 1.5 yards per pass play worse than average and was sacked 9.6% of time on pass plays. Last year the offense was 1.3 yppl worse than average the pass attack was 1.9 yppp worse than average and the quarterbacks were sacked 9.5% of the time (6.5% is average). Gill's 2nd season at Buffalo showed a major improvement of 0.7 yppl and 0.9 yppp as the pass protection went from horrible to average. With 5 veteran linemen the Jayhawks' pass protection should improve and I expect the offense to go from 1.3 yppl worse than average to 0.6 yppl worse than average, with the potential to be better if strong armed freshman QB Brock Berglund wins the job and lives up to his potential. The defense should also improve with 8 starters returning along with LB Huldon Tharp, who was a 1st Team Frosh All-American in 2009 but missed last season due to injury. Kansas was 0.8 yppl worse than average last season (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team), but the Jayhawks should be about 0.4 yppl worse than average this season defensively and could be better than that. Kansas is still likely to be the worst team in the Big 12, but they'll be considerably better than last season's horrible squad.

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Dr. Bob SEC West Preview

Early season ratings have proven more accurate than the Vegas odds makers and last year I pegged Stanford as the 9th best team heading into the season (they were unranked), Oklahoma State rated 19th (also unranked) and had Texas (#5 ranked in the polls) as my 34th rated team. I've used my early season ratings to give me an edge over Las Vegas over the years and this year I want to share some conference previews with you. I will also have free football analysis of almost every College game in the free analysis section at drbobsports.com.

Alabama
(projected SEC record: 7.0 - 1.0, 1st Place West)
If the new quarterback plays even close to as well as former starter Greg McElroy played in his first season as the starter in 2009 then the Crimson Tide will have their best team yet under coach Nick Saban. The 2009 team won the National Championship and last year's team was actually just as good despite having just 2 returning starters on defense. The Crimson Tide out-gained their opponents 7.0 yards per play to 4.8 yppl despite facing a tough schedule of teams that would combine to out-gain an average team by 0.7 yppl. Alabama's offense probably won't be as good without McElroy, who completed 71% of his passes in 2010, but the rushing attack should be just as potent even without former Heisman winner Mark Ingram. Ingram's 875 yards at 5.5 ypr should be more than adequately replaced by Trent Richardson, who ran for 700 yards at 6.2 ypr last season. Backup Eddie Lacy may miss the early part of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, so depth could be a problem early in the season, but the Tide should still be very good offensively and I rate them a bit better than the 2009 attack. What makes Alabama my favorite to win the National Championship is a defense that I rated as 4th best in the nation last season despite having very little experience (just 2 returning starters). This year's Crimson Tide stop unit is loaded with experience (9 returning starters) and talent and clearly has the nation's best secondary. Alabama should have the best defense in the nation to go along with a great offense and good special teams. The rest of the SEC is better this season, but getting Arkansas and LSU at home will help the cause and the Tide have the best shot of any SEC team to find themselves in the National Championship game at the end of the season.

Arkansas
(projected SEC record: 6.1 - 1.9, 2nd Place West)
Bobby Petrino enters his 4th season as Arkansas' head coach and his team should continue to improve despite the loss of star quarterback Ryan Mallett to the NFL. Mallett posted ridiculous numbers last season (8.4 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback), but that's become the norm for Petrino's offenses. Excluding his first year at Louisville and his first year at Arkansas, Petrino's pass attack has an average rating of 2.6 yppp better than average after accounting for opposing pass defenses faced (+2.6 yppp at Louisville and +2.6 yppp the last two years here). The offensive line isn't nearly as experienced as it was last year but the receiving corps is loaded with weapons, as the top 4 in receiving yards all return while star TE DJ Williams (the only loss) is being replaced by perhaps a better pass catcher (Chris Gragg). New quarterback Tyler Wilson played spectacularly off the bench against Auburn last season (322 yards on 36 pass plays) and he averaged 8.3 yppp on 51 pass plays against FBS foes that would combine to allow 5.5 yppp to an average QB. Wilson probably won't be as good as Mallett was last season with a less experienced offensive line, but the Arkansas pass attack will once again be among the best in the nation. Petrino's offense also has a great running tradition and the Hogs still have plenty of talent in the backfield despite the recent season ending injury to leading rusher Knile Davis (1322 at 6.5 ypr last year). Taking Davis' spot as the main ball carrier will likely be Ronnie Wingo, who has rushed for 572 yards at 6.4 ypr the last two seasons, and reports are that Dennis Johnson (609 yards at 6.0 ypr in his career) is in the best shape of his career after missing most of last season with an injury. Arkansas was a good running team last season (5.3 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) despite being dragged down early in the season by the ineffectiveness of Broderick Green's 3.5 ypr average (on 104 carries). It won't be easy replacing Davis' 6.5 ypr, but Arkansas also won't have Green averaging a pathetic 3.5 ypr either. Those two backs combined for 5.5 ypr, which should be at least matched by the new main ball carriers despite the less experienced offensive line. My ratings had Arkansas as the second best offense in the nation last season on a compensated yards per play basis and this year's attack, while probably not quite as good, should still be among the top 5 nationally.

If Arkansas wants to compete for a national championship it will have to be the defense that steps up. Arkansas wasn't bad defensively last season, allowing 5.5 yards per play to FBS teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team, but those numbers were not good by SEC standards. The Razorbacks return most of their top defenders from 2010 and the talent level is getting better through good recruiting. I expect continued improvement from the defense, which I rate at 0.7 yppl better than average to start the season - with potential to be even better. Arkansas is a legitimate top-10 team heading into this season (I have the Hogs rated 8th) but playing their game against Alabama in Tuscaloosa is a tough obstacle and will probably keep the Hogs out of the SEC Championship game.

LSU
(projected SEC record: 4.8 - 3.2, 3rd Place West)
LSU was 11-2 last season, but the Tigers weren't as good as their record, as they benefitted from a 6-1 record on games decided by 7 points or less (they probably should have been 9-4). This year's team should be better on both sides of the ball but they probably won't have as good of a record as last year's fortunate squad did. The Tigers' fate rests with the quarterback position, which has to improve and may face the suspension of starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson. LSU is going to have another strong defense despite losing stars DT Drake Nevis, LB Kelvin Sheppard, and CB Patrick Peterson, last year's top collegiate defensive back. The Tigers will also have a strong rushing attack with plenty of talented running backs and an experienced offensive line paving the way. The key to LSU's season will be the quarterback. Jordan Jefferson is slated as the starter once again, but his production has been mediocre at best in two seasons as the starter (5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB) despite having extremely talented receivers. Jefferson may be suspended for a few games to start the season due to some off field troubles but backup Jarrett Lee may actually be a better option throwing the ball and Jefferson's running ability (568 yards on 105 runs for 5.4 yards per rushing play) isn't going to be missed too much with such a good group of running backs to hand the ball off to. New offensive coordinator Steve Kragthorpe had to take a more limited role as quarterbacks coach due to being diagnosed with Parkinson's disease and Kragthorpe has a history of developing quarterbacks (but so did former OC Gary Crowton) and it's certainly possible that Jefferson and/or Lee puts it all together in his senior season to produce good numbers. My models project a slight 0.2 yppp improvement in the passing numbers with potential for a 1.0 yppp gain and the latter would make LSU a very good team. The Tigers will still be very good even if the quarterbacking remains average and they would be a Top-10 team if the pass attack shows top end improvement. However, the top-5 ranking that the Tigers enter the season with is ridiculous and is a function of last year's lucky 11-2 record and the expected improvement. However, matching last year's 11-2 record will be tough given the difficult schedule that starts with a neutral game against Oregon, includes a game at West Virginia, and then the tough SEC West. LSU is better this season but that isn't likely to show up in their win-loss record.

Auburn
(projected SEC record: 3.8 - 4.2, 4th Place West)
Auburn won the National Championship last season despite being the 4th best team in the nation. But, combining the 4th best team with 1st best luck is enough to go undefeated and winning 5 games by 3 points or less is pretty lucky. Auburn will probably not be so lucky this season and they won't have Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton or most of their key defensive players from last season. The Tigers also have to deal with a brutal schedule, so this will be a very different season than last year. Auburn will certainly be worse offensively without Newton, who averaged an astounding 8.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) while also running for 1625 yards on 241 runs. There has never been a quarterback that had a better combination of passing and running than Cam Newton had last season and the offense will digress in 2011. However, Auburn was very good offensively in 2009 without Newton (0.9 yards per play better than average and 33.3 points per game) and this year's attack should be better than the '09 version, which was the first under offensive guru Gus Malzahn. The new quarterback should post good numbers and the rushing attack, while not as good without Newton's contributions, will still be among the best in the nation with running backs Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb, who combined for 1903 yards at 6.9 ypr last season. Auburn may not have the best offense in the nation this season (as I rated them last season) but they should still have about the 10th best attack regardless of who wins the quarterback job (I rate their attack 12th heading into the season).

Auburn's defense allowed a mediocre 5.5 yards per play last season against FBS teams, but that's not bad considering that they faced teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average stop unit. The defense was better than people thought last year, but it won't be as good this season with just 3 returning starters and the loss of Lombardi Award DT Nick Fairley, who registered 11.5 sacks and 12.5 additional tackles for loss. There is a lot of young talent on this edition of the Tigers' defense but there is also a lot of inexperienced players and I rate Auburn's defense at just 0.3 yppl better than average.

Auburn won't win the National Championship again but the Tigers are still be a Top-20 team in talent. However, playing in the tough SEC West and drawing the 3 best teams from the East (at South Carolina, at Georgia and home against Florida) could result in a 5 or 6 loss season if the Tigers start losing close games instead of winning those tossups.

Mississippi State
(projected SEC record: 2.6 - 5.4, 5th Place West)
Mississippi State went from 5-7 in 2009 to 9-4 last season in coach Dan Mullen's 2nd year at the helm and now they find themselves as the 20th ranked team in the polls heading into this season. The Bulldogs should continue to improve and I project them to be a better team than they were last season, but I just don't think they're a top-25 team and they'll have a disappointing season trying to navigate through an improves SEC conference. Mississippi State actually finished last season ranked 20th in a model based on compensated point differential but the Bulldogs were 32nd in my ratings from the line of scrimmage and had worse than average special teams, so finishing 20th in points was mostly good fortune (allowing 19.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play is an aberration).

Miss State's offense was better than average last season (5.6 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack), but that's not very good by SEC standards. The rushing attack should be better than last year's slightly better than average production (4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) with all the backs returning to run behind a solid offensive line and quarterback Chris Relf should continue to improve after being just 0.4 yards per pass play better than average last season (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp). Backup quarterback Tyler Russell is actually a more dynamic quarterback and he averaged an incredible 9.3 yppp on 68 pass plays against FBS foes, but Russell also threw 6 interceptions on just 67 pass attempts. But, it's still nice to have a quarterback than can spark the offense if Relf continues to be inconsistent (he was relatively worse against better defensive teams).

The Bulldogs' defense was good last season, allowing 5.3 yards per play against FBS teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average stop unit, and I expect similar numbers this season on a compensated yards per play basis. However, Miss State isn't likely to give up just 20 points per game again based on that defensive rating. An average team uses 14.1 yards per point but Mississippi State made their opponents use 17.8 yards for each point last season, which is mostly just random luck. If the Bulldogs would have averaged 14.1 yards per point allowed they would have been about 5 points per game worse last season and it's unrealistic to expect Miss State to be so fortunate again this year. That's the reason why Mississippi State is likely to be a better team this season but not as good on the scoreboard as they were last season.

Mississippi
(projected SEC record: 2.6 - 5.4, 6th Place West)
Mississippi was great in coach Houston Nutt's first season, taking a 3-9 team and turning the Rebels into a surprising 9-4 squad in 2008. Nutt repeated that 9-4 record in 2009 while once against putting a team on the field that was good on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Last season was expected to be a bit of a rebuilding year, but nobody expected the Rebels to fall apart defensively the way they did. Ole' Miss started the season with a shocking 48-49 home loss to Jacksonville State and the defense continued to struggle. Mississippi went from being 1.0 yards per play better than average defensively in 2009 (13th best in my ratings) to ranking 93rd in my defensive ratings at 0.7 yppl worse than average (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team). Defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix should be able to oversee significant improvement even with just 4 returning starters but the Rebels simply don't have the defensive talent that they had in Nutt's first two seasons (when he used former coach Ed Orgeron's talent to win). I project Mississippi to be just average (on a national scale) defensively, which is not good by SEC standards. However, the Rebels should be even better offensively than they were last season (5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was not the savior that some expected when he transferred from Oregon, where he ran a superior system, so his numbers won't be hard to replace, and the rushing attack should be very good again this season with top backs Brandon Bolden (976 yards at 6.0 ypr) and Jeff Scott (429 yards at 6.5 ypr) returning to run behind an offensive line that returns all 5 of last year's starters. I rate Ole' Miss as being 9 points better than they were last season (when they were 1-7 in SEC play), but they should still be the worst team in the very tough SEC West and will only win 2 or 3 games in conference because they are fortunate enough to draw the SEC East's two worst teams (Kentucky and Vanderbilt).

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Dr. Bob SEC East Preview

I'm excited for the start of another football season and I've spent the last month doing a team by team analysis and rating of all 120 Division 1A (aka FBS) teams. My early season ratings have proven more accurate than the Vegas odds makers and last year I pegged Stanford as the 9th best team heading into the season (they were unranked), Oklahoma State rated 19th (also unranked) and had Texas (#5 ranked in the polls) as my 34th rated team. I've used my early season ratings to give me an edge over Las Vegas over the years and this year I want to share some conference previews with you. I will also have free sports betting handicapping analysis of almost every College game in the free analysis section at drbobsports.com.

I'll start my previews with the SEC East and I'll post my analysis of the exciting SEC West later this week.

Georgia
(Projected SEC record 5.5 - 2.5, 1st Place East)
Georgia was much better last season than their 6-7 record suggests and the Bulldogs are my slight favorite to win the SEC East. The Bulldogs out-gained their opponents 6.3 yards per play to 5.5 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that was 0.6 yppl better than average. Georgia was also +10 in turnover margin and had great special teams play, so going 6-7 while out-scoring your opponents by 10.0 points per game was a complete fluke aided by an 0-4 record on games decided by 7 points or less. Georgia's offense will be led by sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray, who emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation while being named 1st Team Freshman All-American.

Murray will have to adjust to life without star WR A.J. Green, who lifted the Georgia passing game from very good to great when he returned to the lineup after missing the first 4 games due to suspension. Murray was very good in the 4 games without Green, averaging 7.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback). Murray averaged 8.2 yppp (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp) in 8 FBS games with Green in the lineup, so he'll certainly miss his former star receiver.

I expect Murray to be a better quarterback this season but his numbers will probably be less impressive without Green's dynamic playmaking ability. Georgia could get a boost in the running game with highly touted true freshman RB Isaiah Crowell as the main back thanks to the absence of last year's top 2 rushers (Washaun Ealey transferred and Caleb King is out for the season with an injury). The Georgia defense hasn't been too much better than average in recent years but this year's stop unit has 7 returning starters and two major additions in run-stuffing DT Jonathan Jenkins (a JC transfer) and USC transfer Jarvis Jones. Georgia should improve significantly on the defensive side of the ball and their special teams will be among the best in the nation. The Bulldogs should be improved while being very likely to improve on their record in close games. Georgia will go from a losing team to a team that will be a major player in the hunt for an SEC Championship.

South Carolina
(projected SEC record 5.3 - 2.7, 2rd Place East)
South Carolina looks like the most well-rounded team in the SEC East from the line of scrimmage, but the Gamecocks will have to improve upon their horrible special teams if they want to return to the SEC Championship game. With their second game of the season being at Georgia, who has among the best special teams units in the nation, the Gamecocks will need to get it together soon if they want a leg up in the division race. There are no problems with South Carolina's offense or defense, as the Gamecocks return the nucleus of last year's strong attack (6.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.1 yppl to an average team) with QB Stephen Garcia coming back for his 4th year as the starter, sophomore RB Marcus Lattimore back after a very good frosh campaign (1197 yards at 4.8 ypr and 17 TDs) and 1st Team All-American WR Alshon Jeffery also returning after hauling in passes for 1517 yards at 17.2 yards per catch. Garcia can be turnover prone (14 interceptions last season), but South Carolina's offense should be very good again this season.

South Carolina's defense should be the unit that makes the difference this season, as the Gamecocks should fix some of the leaks in the secondary that allowed good quarterbacks to expose them last season. Overall, South Carolina was very good defensively in 2010, as the 5.4 yppl that unit allowed against FBS competition came against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense. The Gamecocks should be even better this season defensively with all of their key components back and with the addition of the top rated freshman defensive linemen (DE Jadeveon Clowney) and the return of LB Shaq Wilson, who led the team in tackles in 2009 but played just 1 game last season due to injury. South Carolina should be among the better teams in the nation from the line of scrimmage and they should improve their special teams enough to make a run at defending their SEC East championship. I actually have South Carolina rated as 1 point better than Georgia, but the Gamecocks face a tougher SEC schedule having to play at Georgia and having to visit Arkansas out of the West (Georgia's tough SEC West opponent is their home game with Auburn, which is not nearly as tough).

Florida
(projected SEC record 4.5 - 3.5, 3rd Place East)
I expected Florida to be a very good team last season despite the absence of Tim Tebow, but the quarterback play was the worst in Urban Meyer's coaching career, including his days at Bowling Green and Utah (even after compensating for level of opposing defenses faced). John Brantley was the top rated quarterback of his high school class and had two years in the system as a backup to Tebow, but Brantley was horrible in his first year as the starter. Brantley did connect on a better than average 61 percent of his passes, but the large majority of those completions were short passes (10.3 yards per completion is very low) and his 5.5 yards per pass play (including sacks) was well below even the lowest expectations (6.2 yppp is average). Overall the Gators averaged just 5.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average FBS team) and the poor attack was too much to overcome, even with a very good defense (4.7 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and great special teams.

The Gators start a new regime with former Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp as the head coach, highly regarded offensive coordinator Charlie Weis as the OC and former NFL defensive assistant Dan Quinn taking over the defense (although Muschamp will no doubt has a strong influence on that side of the ball). Florida still has elite talent and I expect the offense to be much improved while the defense comes close to last year's standards despite returning just 4 starters on that side of the ball. I have Florida rated only 2 points worse than South Carolina and just 1 point worse than Georgia, but the Gators have the toughest SEC schedule of those 3 teams and that will make it tough for them to win the East.

Tennessee
(projected SEC record 2.6 - 5.4, 4th Place East)
Tennessee will be better on both sides of the ball in year 2 of coach Derek Dooley's tenure, but getting back to a bowl game after last year's 6-7 season will not be easy. The Volunteers' offense will be led by sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray, who played the last 8 games as a freshman and averaged an impressive 7.3 yards per pass play while facing teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB. I expect a slight drop in Bray's production with the loss of his top 3 receivers, including Denarius Moore, who averaged 20.9 yards per catch, but Brey was much better than Matt Simms last season and overall the Tennessee passing numbers should be better.

The Vols were just mediocre running the ball last season, averaging 4.5 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) but I expect a slight improvement in the rushing numbers and the offense will be good if Bray cuts down on his interceptions (10 on just 224 pass attempts). The Tennessee defense allowed 5.7 yards per play (against teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team) but that unit should be improved despite having just 5 returning starters. The run defense is still likely to be mediocre, but all 4 defensive backs return and the pass defense should be solid. Tennessee should be a few points better in 2011 than they were in 2010, but they're another year away from contending for an SEC title and they will likely have to win all 4 of their non-conference games, or pull off an SEC upset, to make it back to a bowl game this season thanks to a brutal SEC schedule (they have to play the SEC West's 3 toughest teams and two of those are on the road).

Kentucky
(projected SEC record 2.1 - 5.9, 5th Place East)
Kentucky has played in 5 consecutive bowl games, but I think that streak will end this season unless new quarterback Morgan Newton is much better than I expect him to be. Newton averaged just 4.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) on 145 pass plays as freshman in 09 and he was 0.4 yppp worse than average as the starter in Kentucky's bowl game against Pittsburgh last season (4.9 yppp against a Pitt defense that would allow 5.3 yppp to an average QB). Without last year's top receivers Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews I don't see Newton being better than average on a compensated yards per pass play basis. The good news is that Newton has thrown only 3 interceptions on 191 career pass plays, as he usually tucks the ball and runs with it rather than forcing throws into traffic.

Last season's rushing attack was way down even with 4 returning linemen and stars Derrick Locke (887 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Randall Cobb (424 yards at 7.7 ypr) combing for 1311 yards at 5.9 ypr. Overall the Wildcats were only slightly better than average running the ball in 2010 (4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) and they were 0.4 yprp worse than average without Cobb's contribution running as a Wildcat quarterback. This season's top returning back, Raymond Sanders, ran for just 254 yards at 3.7 ypr as a freshman last season and the Wildcats look like a below average rushing team even with 4 returning starters on offensive line. While I think Kentucky's offense will go from 0.6 yards per play better than average to a bit worse than average, the defense should be much, much better with the loss of only one full-time starter from last year's team. The Wildcats allowed 5.9 yards per play in 2010 (against teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive unit) but I project Kentucky at 0.3 yppl better than average this season. Overall, I don't see Kentucky being much better than an average FBS team, and that's not nearly good enough to compete in the SEC.

Vanderbilt
(projected SEC record 1.9 - 6.1, 5th Place East)
New head coach James Franklin insists he's going to turn Vanderbilt's football fortunes around and he has plenty of experience to work with (19 returning starters plus both kickers), but the Commodores need to greatly improve their pass attack if they have a chance at respectability this season. Incumbent QB Larry Smith was horrible as a sophomore, rating at 2.2 yards per pass play worse than average (3.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) and he was equally horrible last season (3.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp). Smith runs the ball pretty well (429 yards on 76 runs last season), but he's simply not accurate enough (47.6 percent career completions) to lead the offense to much success.

There was hope that Jordan Rodgers could take over, but Rodgers hasn't looked good in scrimmages, completing just 7 of 16 passes for a paltry 43 yards and 2 interceptions in the 1st scrimmage and he also struggled last Saturday in the final scrimmage. It looks like Smith will be back at quarterback and it doesn't appear as if he's gotten any better either based on the two scrimmages. Overall Vandy QB's combined to complete just 23 of 48 for just 264 yards in first scrimmage and were even worse last Saturday. Vanderbilt does have two proven running backs in Warren Norman and Zac Stacy, who combined for 790 yards at 5.5 ypr last season, but the offense will only work if the quarterback play vastly improves. Vanderbilt's defense should go from slightly worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl) to better than average against both the run and the pass with a much more experienced unit (8 returning starters this year and just 4 last year) and a good secondary. Vanderbilt gets Kentucky at home and that's their chance to get out of the SEC East basement.

Follow Bob Stoll on Twitter: www.twitter.com/drbobsports 

Tuesday Baseball Analysis Wrap Up

Tuesday, April 26 

Current Season Results

Best Bets 415-357-16 on a Star Basis

I didn't have any Basketball Analysis Best Bets on Monday, but I was 2-0-1 on my 3 Strong Opinions, winning with Memphis and the Portland-Dallas Under and pushing the Thunder-Nuggets under 205 points, as those teams combined for 14 points in the final 70 seconds to land on 205 points. I'm now 5-2 on Best Bets, 6-3-1 on Strong Opinions and 6-7 on leans so far in the playoffs.

The last month has been down but the difference between most winning streaks and losing streaks is the results on close games. When I win more close games than I lose I'm usually up big and my losing streaks are usually during periods when I lose more close games than I win - and I've lost a lot of close games in the past couple of weeks. I'm just 8-19-5 on games decided by 3 points or less the last 5 weeks (44-36 on Best Bets decided by more than 3 points). I'll continue to bounce back (I always do) as long as I'm at least splitting the close ones (which I should do in the long run). Earlier this season I went from +40 Stars down to +15 Stars then won 37 Stars over the next 3 weeks, so things can turn around quickly.

For the season I am 415-357-16 on a Star Basis (3-2 on 4-Stars, 57-51-2 on 3-Stars and 116-98-5 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +22.3 Stars at -1.10 odds.

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My Basketball Best Bets are 6167-5178-249 on a Star Basis the last 12 seasons, for a profit of +471.2 Stars at - 1.10 odds, and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 23 seasons.

Free Basketball Analysis
I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

My Friday lean on New York -3 1/2 lost. I'm 12-6 on my free Best Bets and 103-87-2 on my free opinions this season.

I was 26-24-1 on my Free Best Bets and 323-290-12 on my free opinions the previous 3 seasons.

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