Dr. Bob Basketball for This Week

Dr. Bob Basketball
Free Basketball Analysis by Dr. Bob

Both of my Sunday opinions lost. I am 18-16-2 for the season on Free Best Bets, and I am 70-60-4 for Free Opinions. Free Opinions and the free analysis has been really good lately after a horrible start to the season.
I am 74-56-2 on my Free Best Bets and 614-566-24 on my Free Opinion for the previous 6 seasons.

Sorry, but there is no Free Analysis available at this time but see the links below for the matchup stats.

For Basketball Handicapping, click <a href="http://drbobsports.com">HERE</a>.

Free Basketball Analysis

<strong>Dr. Bob Basketball</strong><p>
My  Florida State -3 Wednesday Opinion pushed because of 2 missed free throws in the last seconds). I am 18-15-2 for the season on my Free Best Bets and for Free Opinions, 68-56-4. The free analysis has been really good lately after a really bad start to the season.</p>
For the last 6 seasons I am 74-56-2 on my Free Best Bets and 614-566-24 on my Free Opinion.

For more info, check out http://www.drbobsports.com/

Cal Over Arkansas

Dr. Bob Basketball

Free Basketball Analysis by Dr. Bob

My Monday Opinion on Cal over Arkansas won. I am 18-15-2 for the season on my Free Best Bets and for my Free Opinions I am 68-56-3. The free analysis has been really good lately after a not-so-great start to the season.

I am 74-56-2 on my Free Best Bets and 614-566-24 on my Free Opinion in the previous 6 seasons.

Follow my analysis blog here.

Free Analysis: NCAA Tournament

Dr. Bob Basketball

Free Basketball Analysis by Dr. Bob

My Monday Free Best Bet on Boston +12 over Dallas won. So far this season I am 15-14-2 on my Free Best Bets and 58-52-2 on my Free Opinions and the free analysis has been winning lately after a horrible start to the season.

I am 74-56-2 in the previous 6 seasons on my Free Best Bets and 614-566-24 for Free Opinion.

I ran my NIT situations and some games popped up but I have tons to do for NCAA Tournament analysis, so I’m not going to spend time getting into those games.

2 games in the NIT apply to a 49-18-1 ATS NIT first round situation and those teams are St. Mary's (pick) and Belmont (+7).

2 games apply to a not as significant 19-3-1 ATS NIT situation and those teams are Clemson (-6) and Arkansas (-9 1/2).

I'll consider those 4 teams as opinions.

The analysis of tonight's two NCAA Tournament games is below, neither of which are even opinions.

Mount St. Mary’s (+2) vs Albany

03:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 531

These two are opposite teams, as Mount St. Mary’s is pretty good offensively (99th in compensated points per possession) and horrible defensively (292nd in compensated defense) while Albany is a pretty solid defensively (they rank in the top half of the nation in compensated points per possession allowed) but the Great Danes are a horrible offensive team (230th in compensated offensive efficiency). My ratings favor Albany overall by 2.8 points, but Mount St. Mary’s was destroyed by good teams, losing to Villanova by 31 point), to BYU by 32 points, and to Michigan State by 33 points. The Mountaineers even lost by an average of 20.5 points to Penn State and Texas Tech, the next two best teams they faced. Mt. St. Mary’s was relatively better against worse teams and my ratings, excluding each team’s games against good teams, favors Albany by just 1 ½ points (with a total of 142.3 points). That’s not enough line value to make a wager on, but I think the line is a little higher than it should be.

Xavier (-3 ½) vs North Carolina State

06:10 PM Pacific Rotation: 534

These teams both like to do their work inside the 3-point arc and neither team is particularly good at defending the paint (both allow 47% on 2-point shots) so I expect both teams to operate offensively pretty well. Xavier has the advantage of playing this game only 44 miles from home, but that has already been worked into the line and ratings favor the Musketeers by 4 points (with a total of 141.5 points). I don’t see any value in playing this game.

You can follow my free analysis blog here.

[NBA] Guru Weekly Best Bets

Season Results

The NBA Guru was 1-1 on his Tuesday Best Bets, losing 2-Stars on Cleveland +2 for the 1st half and winning 2-Stars with Chicago -2 (won by 4). The NBA Guru is now 29-17-1 on Best Bets and 62-37-2 on Stars since January 24th. 

The NBA Guru is 114-97-5 for the season on his Best Bets (43-33-2 on Sides, 40-48 on totals, 20-9-3 on 1st half sides and 11-7 on 1st half totals) and 251-214-11 on a Star Basis (23-20-1 on 3-Stars and 91-77-4 on 2-Stars) for +15.6 Stars at -110 odds. Although it proved a very rough beginning to the season (a low of -24.7 Stars) but things have turned around as hoped.

NBA Guru Last Season

Best Bets 148-115-2 (315-243-4 on a Star Basis) for +47.7 Stars

The NBA Guru finished a solid first season with Dr. Bob Sports by cashing in on 2 Best Bet winners in game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Guru had a 2-Star Best Bet win on San Antonio +3 for the 1st half (down by 2 at half) and a 2-Star Best Bet win on Under 188 1/2 points.

The NBA Guru ends the season at 148-115-2 on his Best Bets (81-63-1 on totals, 38-31 on sides, 18-13 on 1st half sides and 11-8-1 on 1st half totals) and 315-243-4 on Stars (19-13 on 3-Stars, 129-102-2 on 2-Stars) for +47.7 Stars of profit at -1.10 odds.

 

NBA Guru Past Performance

I concentrate on picking sides and spend little time evaluating totals, as most of my longer term clients already know, . I realize that totals can offer a lot of value and I have been following a handicapper in recent years whose strength is NBA Totals. Fresh off a good 2012-12 season, The NBA Guru has had a great year.

In the last 3 seasons the NBA Guru has posted a 568-467-16 (55%) record on all NBA plays rated 2-Stars or higher, which is all he released to his clients at Dr. Bob Sports this past season (he formerly had 1-Star plays). Part of that record includes 2nd half plays and quarter lines, which are only 110-98-7, and were not part of his service with Dr. Bob Sports. That is definitely not a bad record but it is not good enough to justify the inconvenience that goes along with playing in game lines. So, in game bets are not part of his service anymore.

The NBA Guru has been particularly good at full game and first half plays (sides and totals), which are now 458-369-11 (55.4%) winners, and those are the plays being offered with this service at Dr. Bob Sport

Image courtesy espn.com

[NFL] Championship Games and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s only Best Bet last week was a 2-Star Best Bet on Seattle -4 over San Franicsco and the Seahawks won by 6 points in a game that could have gone either way.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 38-32-5 and +2.2 Stars but his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (326-234-18). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 47% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Wild Card and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s only Wild Card week Best Bet was a push, as he had a 2-Star Best Bet on Green Bay +3 against the 49ers, a game the Niners won with a field goal as time expired.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 37-32-4 and +0.2 Stars but his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (325-234-17). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 47% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 37-32-4 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.

Week 19 NFL Playoff Analysis Available Friday