Free Analysis: Miami over Indiana

Indiana has covered the spread in 3 of 4 games in this series but Miami has outscored the Pacers by 8 points overall despite 24 points of negative variance. Miami simply hasn’t shot the ball from 3-point range nearly as well as expected in this series. I realize that Indiana has the NBA’s best 3-point defense (allowing 33.0% to a schedule of teams that combine to average 36.1% from 3-point range on offense), but Miami’s 3-point shooting offense is actually slightly better than Indiana’s 3-point defense as the Heat have made 38.9% of their 3-point shots against teams that combine to allow 35.6% defensively. Based on those numbers Miami should be making 36.0% of their 3-points shots in this series but they’ve made only 30.9% (21 of 68). Indiana, meanwhile, has made 39.7% of their 3-point shots rather than the 33.3% that is expected based on their poor season to date offensive 3-point shooting numbers (34.2% against teams that allow 35.9%) and Miami’s good 3-point defense (34.6% allowed to teams that average 35.4%). Indiana is also making 77.0% from the line (better than their 74.8% season average) while Miami has made just 75.0% from the free throw stripe (75.5% for the season). Overall, the 3-point and free throw shooting variance in this series has been 24 points in favor of the Pacers, which makes Miami’s 8 point margin in scoring even more impressive. Without the variance the Heat would be outscoring Indiana by 8 points per game. Miami’s shooters aren’t likely to keep missing their 3-point shots (Ray Allen and Shane Battier, Miami’s main two 3-point shooters are a combined 11 for 46 from long range in this series) and Indiana isn’t likely to keep making 40% of their shots from beyond the arc. 

My ratings favor Miami by 8 points in this game based on season data and adjusted for playoff rotations (that favors Indiana by 0.5 points more than it favors Miami) and I also get 8 points using each team’s playoff games only (adjusted for George Hill missing one game for Indiana). The line in game 1 here in Miami was also 8 points and Miami has actually played better than expected in this series if you factor out the negative variance. There are a few technical situations that go both ways, but the stronger situations favor Miami and I like that more than 60% of the public is betting Indiana. I’ll lean with Miami at -8 or less and I’d consider the Heat a Strong Opinion at -7 or less. 

UNDER (185 ½) – Indiana at MIAMI
All 4 games in this series have gone over the total despite the number of possessions per game being below expectations. Game 4 was actually the slowest paced game of the series but these teams continue to be much more efficient offensively (points per possession) than expected. I still contend that the scoring efficiency of these teams in this series is not likely to continue, although using playoff games only for both teams would predict a slightly higher expected efficiency than using compensated statistics from the entire season. Using the average pace of this series with the expected scoring efficiencies based on each team’s playoff games only would yield a prediction of 181.7 total points. There have been only 4 playoff series since 1992 that have had the total go over in each of the first 4 games of the series and game 5 of those series have gone under 3 out of 4 times with the one game that went over totaling just 179 points (the total was 171). I’ll lean UNDER 184 points or higher.

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