Free Analysis College Football: Stanford vs UCLA

 

Every Friday I update my free sports analysis. Today I will cover the game between Stanford and UCLA. I believe based on the previous games that Stanford has a better team. It should be an interesting game non-the less.

Stanford beat UCLA 35-17 in the Rose Bowl last week and the Cardinal should take care of business on the Farm tonight. Freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan has boosted the Stanford offense the last 3 weeks since taking over as the starting quarterback and Stanford has been 0.4 yards per play better with Hogan at quarterback (compensated for opposing defenses). The Cardinal are now 0.7 yppl better than average offensively with a good blend of run and pass (Hogan has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and that attack should perform with efficiency agaisnt a mediocre UCLA defense that's allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Stanford gained 404 yards at 5.9 yppl last week in L.A. and my math model projects 415 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Cardinal here in Palo Alto. 

The battle in this game is between UCLA's better than average offense (0.6 yppl better than average) against a very stingy Stanford defense that's been 1.5 yppl better than average this season (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team). Stanford has a significant edge in the season rating of the two units and the Cardinal held UCLA's Pistol attack to a modest 334 yards at 4.7 yppl last week. My math projects 326 yards at 4.4 yppl for UCLA this week on the road. 

These two teams actually played to expectations last week, as the yardage numbers were extremely close to projections, while the final 35-17 margin was higher than it should have been given the stats. Stanford is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Cardinal by 10 points in this game.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
UCLA-Offense	37.7	41	231	5.6	1.18	23	37	0.82	261	7.0	3.3	7.0	493	6.3
UCLA-Defense	25.0	32	166	5.0	1.18	23	41	1.36	255	6.1	3.5	6.1	421	5.6
League Average	27.4	35	179	4.9	0.83	19	33	0.92	212	6.3	2.0	6.3	391	5.6
Stanford-Offense	28.0	35	177	5.0	0.64	17	31	0.91	206	6.5	1.4	6.5	383	5.7
Stanford-Defense	16.9	25	100	3.9	1.00	25	46	1.09	231	5.0	4.0	5.0	331	4.6

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

UCLA: SU: 9-3-0, ATS: 7-5-0

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
08/30/12 @ Rice	49-24	-16.5 W	37/47	350/219	9.5/4.7	1/1	24/18	32/30	296/142	1/1	2/7	8.7/3.8	646/361	9.1/4.3
09/08/12 Nebraska	36-30	+5.5 W	54/36	362/278	6.7/7.7	1/1	22/17	38/31	296/161	0/1	3/2	7.2/4.9	658/439	6.9/6.4
09/15/12 Houston	37-6	-17.0 W	55/19	269/141	4.9/7.4	3/1	27/28	42/60	300/247	2/5	3/1	6.7/4.0	569/388	5.7/4.9
09/22/12 Oregon St.	20-27	-7.5 L	28/41	85/142	3.0/3.5	0/1	27/24	42/35	359/359	0/1	2/3	8.2/9.4	444/501	6.2/6.3
09/29/12 @ Colorado	42-14	-19.0 W	41/30	236/95	5.8/3.2	1/1	25/23	40/35	260/214	0/1	3/4	6.0/5.5	496/309	5.9/4.5
10/06/12 @ California	17-43	-2.5 L	34/42	176/206	5.2/4.9	2/2	31/25	47/30	215/275	4/1	6/4	4.1/8.1	391/481	4.5/6.3
10/13/12 Utah	21-14	-8.0 L	47/27	177/85	3.8/3.1	1/0	15/25	21/35	177/234	0/1	2/2	7.7/6.3	354/319	5.1/5.0
10/27/12 @ Arizona St.	45-43	+6.5 W	47/59	231/243	4.9/4.1	1/0	19/25	29/35	255/292	1/1	5/5	7.5/7.3	486/535	6.0/5.4
11/03/12 Arizona	66-10	-3.0 W	63/40	317/138	5.0/3.5	0/3	25/17	30/30	294/119	0/0	1/4	9.5/3.5	611/257	6.5/3.5
11/10/12 @ Washington St.	44-36	-15.5 L	35/30	110/103	3.1/3.4	2/2	18/37	21/57	229/421	1/1	4/6	9.2/6.7	339/524	5.7/5.6
11/17/12 USC	38-28	+3.5 W	49/30	231/177	4.7/5.9	1/1	22/23	30/41	195/336	0/2	5/1	5.6/8.0	426/513	5.1/7.1

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the UCLA. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or UCLA/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

Stanford: SU: 10-2-0, ATS: 6-4-2

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
08/31/12 San Jose St.	20-17	-24.0 L	39/27	162/89	4.2/3.3	0/1	16/24	26/35	121/199	0/1	1/3	4.5/5.2	283/288	4.3/4.4
09/08/12 Duke	50-13	-15.0 W	23/23	104/44	4.5/1.9	0/1	18/42	33/63	272/341	1/3	1/2	8.0/5.2	376/385	6.6/4.4
09/15/12 USC	21-14	+9.0 W	36/28	201/47	5.6/1.7	0/1	15/20	32/41	215/233	2/2	0/4	6.7/5.2	416/280	6.1/3.8
09/27/12 @ Washington	13-17	-6.5 L	27/31	80/165	3.0/5.3	1/0	18/19	37/37	157/153	1/1	2/3	4.0/3.8	237/318	3.6/4.5
10/06/12 Arizona	54-48	-10.0 L	43/34	260/143	6.0/4.2	1/0	21/45	34/69	357/474	0/1	1/3	10.2/6.6	617/617	7.9/5.8
10/13/12 @ Notre Dame	13-20	+7.0 T	39/43	152/190	3.9/4.4	0/3	12/16	25/28	122/160	2/0	1/4	4.7/5.0	274/350	4.2/4.7
10/20/12 @ California	21-3	-2.5 W	46/28	253/27	5.5/1.0	1/2	17/19	32/31	222/190	1/1	1/4	6.7/5.4	475/217	6.0/3.4
10/27/12 Washington St.	24-17	-24.0 L	37/23	131/48	3.5/2.1	0/0	7/43	15/60	125/337	0/1	3/10	6.9/4.8	256/385	4.7/4.1
11/03/12 @ Colorado	48-0	-27.5 W	37/20	217/31	5.9/1.6	0/2	25/12	34/23	223/51	0/1	2/7	6.2/1.7	440/82	6.0/1.6
11/10/12 Oregon St.	27-23	-4.0 T	35/28	180/107	5.1/3.8	2/1	22/23	29/39	243/205	2/0	2/3	7.8/4.9	423/312	6.4/4.5
11/17/12 @ Oregon	17-14	+20.5 W	44/40	208/204	4.7/5.1	2/0	25/21	36/37	206/201	1/1	1/1	5.6/5.3	414/405	5.1/5.2

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Stanford. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Stanford/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

Free Analysis College Football: Arkansas vs Mississippi

Every Friday I update my free sports analysis. This week is the Arkansas Hogs vs the Mississippi Bull Dogs. The game is on Saturday Nov 17th. I predict the over/under to be 55.5 with the Hogs being favored to win. It should be a good game nonetheless.

I realize that I haven’t had success going with Arkansas in recent weeks but the average spread in those games was +1/2 a point (-5 against Ole’ Miss, -7 ½ against Tulsa, and +14 against South Carolina) and the Razorbacks have outgained those 3 teams 411 yards at 5.8 yppl to 361 yards at 5.1 yppl. The fact that Arkansas outplayed those teams from the line of scrimmage and failed to cover in all 3 games is random as far as I’m concern. While I may not have gotten the results I wanted going with the underrated Razorbacks, I have had good results going against the overrated Bulldogs with Best Bet winners on Alabama (they lost by 31) and Texas A&M (lost by 25), and the only reason I didn’t have a Best Bet against them last week was because they were in a number of very strong bounce-back situations. My math model had LSU as a math play with a 58% chance of covering, so the math against the Bulldogs was stronger than the situations in their favor.

Mississippi State built their 7-0 record by beating a schedule of bad teams and I couldn’t wait to go against them when they started playing decent teams. The Bulldogs aren’t a bad team, but I had them rated at #31 in my ratings when they were 7-0 and ranked #9 in the nation in the polls. I actually have the Bulldogs rated at #28 currently, so they’re the same team after their 3 straight losses as they were when they were 7-0. I have Arkansas rated two spots higher than Mississippi State and my math model gives the Hogs a profitable 54.5% chance of covering in this game at +7 points. Don’t consider this a play on Arkansas, since that hasn’t worked out even though they’ve outplayed their last 3 opponents, but rather as a play against Mississippi State. I’d consider Arkansas a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
Arkansas-Offense	25.5	29	137	4.7	1.10	21	39	1.30	288	7.4	1.7	7.4	425	6.2
Arkansas-Defense	30.0	33	145	4.3	0.50	22	38	0.60	269	7.1	2.4	7.1	413	5.8
League Average	27.3	35	179	4.9	0.82	19	33	0.93	211	6.3	2.0	6.3	390	5.6
Mississippi St.-Offense	29.4	31	155	4.9	0.70	19	33	0.40	229	6.9	1.0	6.9	384	6.0
Mississippi St.-Defense	21.4	35	177	4.9	1.00	20	34	1.20	203	6.0	1.5	6.0	380	5.4

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Arkansas: SU: 4-6-0, ATS: 3-7-0

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/01/12 Jacksonville State	49-24	0.0 W	35/44	170/139	4.9/3.2	3/1	23/18	34/37	394/183	0/0	1/3	11.3/4.6	564/322	8.1/3.8
09/08/12 UL Monroe	31-34	-30.5 L	26/35	112/162	4.3/4.6	0/0	17/42	40/68	265/388	2/1	1/3	6.5/5.5	377/550	5.6/5.2
09/15/12 Alabama	0-52	+20.0 L	36/44	109/229	3.0/5.2	3/0	11/14	25/20	59/213	2/0	4/0	2.0/10.7	168/442	2.6/6.9
09/22/12 Rutgers	26-35	-9.5 L	19/37	80/144	4.2/3.9	0/0	20/25	39/35	412/385	2/0	1/1	10.3/10.7	492/529	8.3/7.2
09/29/12 @ Texas A&M	10-58	+14.5 L	39/31	152/220	3.9/7.1	1/0	29/34	59/47	363/498	2/0	1/0	6.1/10.6	515/718	5.2/9.2
10/06/12 @ Auburn	24-7	+7.5 W	32/32	133/120	4.2/3.8	2/2	21/22	28/35	239/201	0/3	1/8	8.2/4.7	372/321	6.1/4.3
10/13/12 Kentucky	49-7	-18.5 W	27/25	161/80	6.0/3.2	0/0	23/4	34/15	372/90	0/0	0/2	10.9/5.3	533/170	8.7/4.0
10/27/12 Mississippi	27-30	-5.0 L	37/37	192/103	5.2/2.8	0/1	24/29	43/37	272/252	2/1	3/3	5.9/6.3	464/355	5.6/4.6
11/03/12 Tulsa	19-15	-8.0 L	32/34	143/130	4.5/3.8	1/1	21/22	31/37	266/214	1/0	1/1	8.3/5.6	409/344	6.4/4.8
11/10/12 @ South Carolina	20-38	+14.0 L	27/41	121/121	4.5/3.0	1/0	26/15	41/25	239/262	2/1	4/3	5.3/9.4	360/383	5.0/5.6

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Arkansas. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Arkansas/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

Mississippi St.: SU: 7-3-0, ATS: 5-5-0

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/01/12 Jackson State	56-9	0.0 W	37/21	194/125	5.2/6.0	0/1	16/20	27/38	183/140	0/2	0/2	6.8/3.5	377/265	5.9/4.3
09/08/12 Auburn	28-10	-3.0 W	35/38	175/105	5.0/2.8	1/2	20/13	29/22	215/113	0/3	1/2	7.2/4.7	390/218	6.0/3.5
09/15/12 @ Troy	30-24	-16.5 L	32/40	216/223	6.8/5.6	0/2	11/34	26/47	244/349	0/2	0/0	9.4/7.4	460/572	7.9/6.6
09/22/12 South Alabama	30-10	-32.0 L	37/30	161/128	4.4/4.3	0/1	14/22	29/43	195/219	1/2	1/1	6.5/5.0	356/347	5.3/4.7
10/06/12 @ Kentucky	27-14	-10.0 W	38/34	162/108	4.3/3.2	2/0	23/15	39/27	265/120	0/0	1/3	6.6/4.0	427/228	5.5/3.6
10/13/12 Tennessee	41-31	-3.0 W	41/34	160/213	3.9/6.3	0/1	25/13	39/24	290/148	0/1	2/0	7.1/6.2	450/361	5.5/6.2
10/20/12 Middle Tenn St	45-3	-19.5 W	33/41	241/157	7.3/3.8	1/1	20/20	26/32	205/148	0/2	1/3	7.6/4.2	446/305	7.4/4.0
10/27/12 @ Alabama	7-38	+23.5 L	21/39	55/202	2.6/5.2	2/0	19/17	36/24	201/214	1/0	1/2	5.4/8.2	256/416	4.4/6.4
11/03/12 Texas A&M	13-38	+6.0 L	27/58	104/370	3.9/6.4	0/1	19/32	30/39	206/323	1/0	1/1	6.6/8.1	310/693	5.3/7.1
11/10/12 @ LSU	17-37	+14.5 L	23/38	77/135	3.3/3.6	1/1	27/19	39/30	289/257	1/0	2/1	7.0/8.3	366/392	5.7/5.7

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Mississippi St.. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Mississippi St./Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

I expect Arkansas to come up on top in this battle. I'll post more Sports Investing Advice every Friday from Dr. Bobs!