Free Football Analysis for Week 8: Lions vs. Seahawks!

Here is some more free football analysis for week 8 of the 2012 NFL Season! The Lions are giving Seattle 2.5 points and the over/under is 43 total points. I usually post this analysis every Friday around 10:00 AM (PST). Be sure to check out my Facebook and Twitter accounts as well, as I run a lot of contests and giveaways!

The Lions are much better than their 2-4 record, out-gaining a tough schedule of opponents 399 yards at 5.6 yards per play to 320 yards at 5.1 yppl. Detroit’s opponents would out-gain an average team by 0.5 yppl and the Lions are actually one of the better teams in the league in compensated yards per play differential. However, the Lions have been horrible in special teams, which have cost them 3.2 points per game, and they’re -5 in turnover margin. The good news for Lions’ fans is that turnovers and special teams are subject to a lot of variance and it’s unlikely that those things will continue to haunt them to the degree they have so far. Seattle is a good team, rating at 0.8 yards per play better than average defensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively, so this is not a game that the Lions are likely to dominate. However, my math model does favor Detroit by 3 ½ points and I have situations favoring both sides in this game. I lean with Detroit at -3 or less.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
SEA-Offense	16.6	32	134	4.2	0.57	14	24	1.00	158	6.4	2.0	5.9	293	5.0
SEA-Defense	15.1	22	86	3.8	0.57	21	36	0.86	212	5.8	2.7	5.4	298	4.8
League Average	23.0	26	114	4.3	0.67	21	34	0.99	240	6.8	2.3	6.4	354	5.5
DET-Offense	22.2	24	100	4.1	0.83	28	45	1.00	299	6.6	2.0	6.3	399	5.6
DET-Defense	25.0	26	110	4.2	0.67	21	33	0.33	210	6.2	2.7	5.8	320	5.1

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Seattle Seahawks: SU: 4-3-0, ATS: 5-2-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Cardinals	16-20	-2.5 L	40.5 U	33/19	115/44	3.5/2.3	1/1	18/20	34/36	139/210	1/1	3/1	3.8/5.7	254/254	3.6/4.5
09/16/12 Cowboys	27-7	+3.0 W	42.5 U	41/15	182/50	4.4/3.3	0/1	15/23	20/40	133/247	0/1	2/1	6.0/6.0	315/297	5.0/5.3
09/24/12 Packers	14-12	+3.5 W	46.5 U	29/21	127/84	4.4/4.0	0/0	9/26	20/39	87/184	0/0	1/8	4.1/3.9	214/268	4.3/3.9
09/30/12 @ Rams	13-19	-2.5 L	39.0 U	34/25	179/77	5.3/3.1	0/0	17/16	25/29	140/209	3/1	2/2	5.2/6.7	319/286	5.2/5.1
10/07/12 @ Panthers	16-12	+3.0 W	43.5 U	33/19	117/82	3.5/4.3	1/2	19/12	25/29	212/108	2/0	2/4	7.9/3.3	329/190	5.5/3.7
10/14/12 Patriots	24-23	+3.5 W	44.5 O	25/26	85/87	3.4/3.3	2/0	16/36	27/58	283/388	0/2	2/1	9.8/6.6	368/475	6.8/5.6
10/18/12 @ 49ers	6-13	+7.5 W	37.5 U	29/32	136/175	4.7/5.5	0/0	9/14	23/23	115/138	1/1	2/2	4.6/5.5	251/313	4.6/5.5

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Seahawks. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Seahawks/Opponent.

Detroit Lions: SU: 2-4-0, ATS: 2-4-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 Rams	27-23	-7.5 L	45.5 O	18/26	83/79	4.6/3.0	0/0	32/17	47/25	346/169	3/0	1/3	7.2/6.0	429/248	6.5/4.6
09/16/12 @ 49ers	19-27	+6.5 L	46.5 U	25/24	83/151	3.3/6.3	0/1	19/20	32/31	214/201	1/0	2/3	6.3/5.9	297/352	5.0/6.1
09/23/12 @ Titans	41-44	-3.5 L	46.5 O	36/19	141/59	3.9/3.1	1/2	42/29	53/42	396/378	0/0	1/0	7.3/9.0	537/437	6.0/7.2
09/30/12 Vikings	13-20	-4.5 L	47.0 U	20/28	55/127	2.8/4.5	1/0	30/16	50/26	286/100	0/0	5/2	5.2/3.6	341/227	4.5/4.1
10/14/12 @ Eagles	26-23	+3.5 W	47.5 O	28/29	138/71	4.9/2.4	0/1	22/28	45/46	311/286	1/2	0/3	6.9/5.8	449/357	6.2/4.6
10/22/12 @ Bears	7-13	+6.5 W	47.0 U	18/32	99/171	5.5/5.3	3/0	28/17	46/32	241/125	1/0	3/5	4.9/3.4	340/296	5.1/4.3

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Lions. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Lions/Opponent.

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Free Football Analysis for Week 7: Steelers vs. Bengals!

Here's this week's free sports betting advice! Cincinnati is a one point dog and the over/under is forty five and a half points. I post my football analysis on Fridays around 10am so check the site early and often if you want to get your bets in before they change the lines.

Pittsburgh is out-gaining their opponents by 64 yards per game but they’re having trouble turning that yardage advantage into a points advantage (just +0.2 points margin). That’s discrepancy between yards and points isn't likely to continue and the Steelers are a good team. Winning on the road has been an issue for the Steelers, who have already lost at Denver, at Oakland, and at Tennessee this season but they should be able to squeak by a sub-par Bengals team that is 3-3 despite playing an easy schedule. The Bengals are okay from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.1 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense but the Steelers are average offensively and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively and are likely to run significantly more plays with their new ball control offense (they average 9 more plays per game than their opponents). My math model favors Pittsburgh by 3 ½ points but the Steelers apply to a negative 49-93-6 ATS statistical indicator that is based on their high penalty count (8.2 penalties per game). I think passing on this game is the best option.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
PIT-Offense	23.2	25	77	3.0	0.40	25	38	0.40	283	7.3	2.0	7.0	361	5.5
PIT-Defense	23.0	22	96	4.3	0.80	19	32	0.40	201	6.2	2.2	5.8	297	5.2
League Average	23.2	26	112	4.3	0.65	21	34	1.02	242	6.9	2.3	6.4	355	5.6
CIN-Offense	24.8	24	100	4.1	0.83	23	35	1.50	271	7.6	2.8	7.0	371	5.9
CIN-Defense	27.2	27	120	4.4	0.83	21	31	0.33	226	7.1	3.5	6.4	346	5.5

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Pittsburgh Steelers: SU: 2-3-0, ATS: 1-4-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Broncos	19-31	+1.5 L	46.0 O	26/24	75/98	2.9/4.1	0/1	22/19	39/26	209/240	1/0	5/2	4.8/8.6	284/338	4.1/6.5
09/16/12 Jets	27-10	-5.0 W	41.5 U	28/22	66/90	2.4/4.1	0/1	24/10	31/27	265/129	0/0	3/2	7.8/4.4	331/219	5.3/4.3
09/23/12 @ Raiders	31-34	-3.5 L	45.5 O	20/21	54/119	2.7/5.7	2/0	36/24	47/34	379/202	0/1	1/1	7.9/5.8	433/321	6.4/5.7
10/07/12 Eagles	16-14	-3.5 L	43.0 U	31/23	136/78	4.4/3.4	0/2	21/20	36/30	207/168	0/0	0/3	5.8/5.1	343/246	5.1/4.4
10/11/12 @ Titans	23-26	-6.0 L	44.0 O	22/22	56/94	2.5/4.3	0/0	24/25	40/44	356/265	1/1	1/3	8.7/5.6	412/359	6.5/5.2

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Steelers. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Steelers/Opponent.

Cincinnati Bengals: SU: 3-3-0, ATS: 3-3-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/10/12 @ Ravens	13-44	+7.0 L	41.5 O	27/22	129/123	4.8/5.6	1/0	22/23	37/32	193/308	1/0	4/3	4.7/8.8	322/431	4.7/7.6
09/16/12 Browns	34-27	-6.5 W	38.5 O	24/23	81/130	3.4/5.7	0/1	24/26	31/37	295/309	1/0	6/2	8.0/7.9	376/439	6.2/7.1
09/23/12 @ Redskins	38-31	+3.0 W	49.0 O	27/34	94/213	3.5/6.3	1/1	19/21	27/33	312/168	1/0	2/6	10.8/4.3	406/381	7.3/5.2
09/30/12 @ Jaguars	27-10	-2.5 W	43.5 U	31/18	141/69	4.5/3.8	1/1	20/23	31/34	244/143	1/1	0/6	7.9/3.6	385/212	6.2/3.7
10/07/12 Dolphins	13-17	-3.0 L	45.0 U	19/31	80/72	4.2/2.3	1/2	26/17	43/26	218/211	2/0	3/2	4.7/7.5	298/283	4.6/4.8
10/14/12 @ Browns	24-34	-2.0 L	44.0 O	20/34	76/111	3.8/3.3	1/0	31/17	46/29	362/218	3/1	2/2	7.5/7.0	438/329	6.4/5.1

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Bengals. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Bengals/Opponent.

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Free Football Analysis: Atlanta vs. Oakland!

Here is some more free football analysis for week six of the 2012 NFL season. Oakland is a nine point dog in this matchup and rightfully so, as they are facing a tough undefeated Atlanta squad. The over/under in this one is 48.5 points.

Bad teams like Oakland usually play well coming out of their bye week, as the week off gives a struggling team time to stop the bleeding and tends to renew dampened spirits. In fact, teams with a win percentage of less than .300 are 77-42 ATS as an underdog or pick after their bye week (from week 5 on), including 49-22 ATS against a team coming off a win. The Raiders also apply to an early season 68-24-6 ATS early season contrary angle and this game is certainly contrary given the Raiders’ struggled and the Falcons’ perfect record. However, Atlanta has a bye week next week and big home favorites have done very well heading into their bye weeks and the Falcons apply to a 34-9 ATS situation that is based on that premise. The bad team after the bye and the big home favorite before their bye angles have actually intersected one time and the big road dog covered easily in that one game (not that that means much). Overall the technical analysis does favor Oakland but my math model favors the Falcons by 13 points after adjusting for the Raiders’ horrible pass defense the last two games without both starting cornerbacks. I’ll lean slightly with Atlanta but I wouldn’t suggest betting this game (although I did use Atlanta in my survivor pool).

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
OAK-Offense	16.8	17	61	3.6	0.25	24	40	0.50	258	6.4	1.8	6.1	319	5.4
OAK-Defense	31.3	29	130	4.4	0.75	27	37	0.00	283	7.6	0.8	7.4	413	6.1
League Average	23.0	26	112	4.2	0.67	21	34	0.96	240	6.8	2.3	6.4	352	5.5
ATL-Offense	29.6	24	95	3.9	0.20	27	39	0.60	282	7.1	2.4	6.7	377	5.7
ATL-Defense	18.6	26	143	5.5	1.00	19	31	1.80	203	6.5	2.6	6.0	346	5.8

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Oakland Raiders: SU: 1-3-0, ATS: 1-3-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/10/12 Chargers	14-22	-1.0 L	46.0 U	18/19	45/34	2.5/1.8	1/0	32/24	46/33	276/226	0/0	3/1	5.6/6.6	321/260	4.8/4.9
09/16/12 @ Dolphins	13-35	-2.5 L	39.5 O	13/42	23/264	1.8/6.3	0/0	24/18	48/30	373/189	1/0	0/1	7.8/6.1	396/453	6.5/6.2
09/23/12 Steelers	34-31	+3.5 W	45.5 O	21/20	119/54	5.7/2.7	0/2	24/36	34/47	202/379	1/0	1/1	5.8/7.9	321/433	5.7/6.4
09/30/12 @ Broncos	6-37	+7.0 L	49.0 U	16/36	56/167	3.5/4.6	0/1	19/30	34/39	181/338	0/0	3/0	4.9/8.7	237/505	4.5/6.7

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Raiders. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Raiders/Opponent.

Atlanta Falcons: SU: 5-0-0, ATS: 4-1-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Chiefs	40-24	-2.5 W	43.5 O	23/32	84/153	3.7/4.8	0/1	23/21	31/33	292/241	0/2	1/3	9.1/6.7	376/394	6.8/5.8
09/17/12 Broncos	27-21	-3.0 W	51.0 U	26/27	70/118	2.7/4.4	0/1	24/24	36/37	208/218	0/3	1/3	5.6/5.5	278/336	4.4/5.0
09/23/12 @ Chargers	27-3	+3.0 W	47.5 U	26/16	119/117	4.6/7.3	0/2	30/21	40/38	265/164	1/2	2/1	6.3/4.2	384/281	5.6/5.1
09/30/12 Panthers	30-28	-7.0 L	48.0 O	19/35	121/199	6.4/5.7	0/1	25/15	40/25	305/205	1/0	7/3	6.5/7.3	426/404	6.5/6.4
10/07/12 @ Redskins	24-17	-3.0 W	51.5 U	28/21	83/129	3.0/6.1	1/0	34/15	52/24	338/187	1/2	1/3	6.4/6.9	421/316	5.2/6.6

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Falcons. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Falcons/Opponent.

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