Free Football Analysis: Patriots vs. Bills!

Here's some more free football betting advice from my site, DrBobSports.com. This is a big division rivalry and the first of two times these teams will meet this year. New England is giving Buffalo 4 points this Sunday and the total over/under is 50.5 points. I typically post this free sports analysis on Fridays after 10:00am Pacific Time. 

New England is 90-45-4 ATS with Tom Brady under center when not favored by 9 points or more, which includes 31-11-2 ATS against division opponents and 16-2 ATS recently after a loss. The Bills will likely be without RB C.J. Spiller, but Fred Jackson is scheduled to return after missing the last two games. Jackson is a very good running back with a 4.6 lifetime per run average, but Spiller has averaged has averaged 9.3 ypr so far this year, which is impossible to replace. Even a 100% healthy Spiller wouldn't be able to sustain that average, so the Bills are not likely to be as good offensively going forward as they've been the first 3 weeks (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). New England has not been as good offensively so far this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), but the Patriots have been good defensively, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team. My math favors New England by 5 points with a total of just 43 points and I like the team trends favoring the Patriots. I'll lean with New England and I like the Under here.

New England Patriots: SU: 14-3-0, ATS: 10-7-0

GAME LOGS 2011				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/12/11 @ Dolphins	38-24	-7.0 W	45.5 O	22/19	106/99	4.8/5.2	0/0	32/30	48/49	516/390	1/1	1/4	10.5/7.4	622/489	8.8/6.8
09/18/11 Chargers	35-21	-6.5 W	53.5 O	24/24	95/98	4.0/4.1	0/2	31/29	40/40	410/372	0/2	2/2	9.8/8.9	505/470	7.7/7.1
09/25/11 @ Bills	31-34	-7.5 L	53.5 O	26/19	109/80	4.2/4.2	0/0	30/27	45/40	386/369	4/2	0/0	8.6/9.2	495/449	7.0/7.6
10/02/11 @ Raiders	31-19	-4.0 W	55.0 U	29/27	184/160	6.3/5.9	0/0	16/25	30/39	226/344	0/2	1/0	7.3/8.8	410/504	6.8/7.6
10/09/11 Jets	30-21	-8.5 W	48.5 O	35/25	152/97	4.3/3.9	0/0	24/16	33/25	294/158	1/0	4/2	7.9/5.9	446/255	6.2/4.9
10/16/11 Cowboys	20-16	-6.5 L	55.5 U	25/24	101/77	4.0/3.2	2/1	27/27	41/41	270/300	2/1	3/2	6.1/7.0	371/377	5.4/5.6
10/30/11 @ Steelers	17-25	-3.0 L	52.5 U	12/22	43/99	3.6/4.5	0/0	24/36	35/50	170/329	0/1	3/5	4.5/6.0	213/428	4.3/5.6
11/06/11 Giants	20-24	-9.0 L	51.0 U	24/28	106/112	4.4/4.0	2/1	28/20	49/39	330/250	2/1	2/0	6.5/6.4	436/362	5.8/5.4
11/13/11 @ Jets	37-16	+1.5 W	47.5 O	27/24	61/111	2.3/4.6	0/1	26/20	39/39	329/268	0/2	0/5	8.4/6.1	390/379	5.9/5.6
11/21/11 Chiefs	34-3	-15.0 W	46.5 U	35/26	157/119	4.5/4.6	1/0	15/25	27/38	223/215	0/3	3/3	7.4/5.2	380/334	5.8/5.0
11/27/11 @ Eagles	38-20	-3.5 W	49.5 O	34/17	106/73	3.1/4.3	0/0	24/26	34/48	353/393	0/1	1/2	10.1/7.9	459/466	6.7/7.0
12/04/11 Colts	31-24	-20.5 L	48.0 O	23/30	74/100	3.2/3.3	0/1	29/30	38/37	289/338	0/1	1/2	7.4/8.7	363/438	5.9/6.3
12/11/11 @ Redskins	34-27	-8.0 L	48.0 O	19/34	80/170	4.2/5.0	0/1	22/19	37/32	352/244	1/1	1/2	9.3/7.2	432/414	7.6/6.1
12/18/11 @ Broncos	41-23	-7.5 W	46.0 O	35/31	142/252	4.1/8.1	0/3	23/11	33/23	310/161	0/0	2/4	8.9/6.0	452/413	6.5/7.1
12/24/11 Dolphins	27-24	-9.0 L	50.0 O	29/26	121/116	4.2/4.5	0/1	27/17	46/33	281/266	0/1	4/5	5.6/7.0	402/382	5.1/6.0
01/01/12 Bills	49-21	-10.5 W	50.0 O	26/19	141/100	5.4/5.3	0/0	24/29	36/46	342/296	1/4	4/2	8.6/6.2	483/396	7.3/5.9
01/14/12 Broncos	45-10	-13.5 W	50.0 O	30/39	146/145	4.9/3.7	1/1	26/9	34/26	363/108	1/0	0/5	10.7/3.5	509/253	8.0/3.6

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Patriots. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Patriots/Opponent.

Buffalo Bills: SU: 6-10-0, ATS: 6-9-1

GAME LOGS 2011				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/11/11 @ Chiefs	41-7	+6.0 W	40.0 O	38/18	164/108	4.3/6.0	0/2	17/22	26/36	201/105	1/1	1/2	7.4/2.8	365/213	5.6/3.8
09/18/11 Raiders	38-35	-3.5 L	43.0 O	25/30	217/131	8.7/4.4	0/1	28/23	45/33	264/323	1/1	0/0	5.9/9.8	481/454	6.9/7.2
09/25/11 Patriots	34-31	+7.5 W	53.5 O	19/26	80/109	4.2/4.2	0/0	27/30	40/45	369/386	2/4	0/0	9.2/8.6	449/495	7.6/7.0
10/02/11 @ Bengals	20-23	-3.0 L	43.5 U	21/32	83/171	4.0/5.3	0/0	20/18	34/36	190/287	0/2	1/2	5.4/7.6	273/458	4.9/6.5
10/09/11 Eagles	31-24	+2.5 W	49.5 O	33/19	146/174	4.4/9.2	0/1	21/26	27/39	188/315	1/4	1/1	6.7/7.9	334/489	5.5/8.3
10/16/11 @ Giants	24-27	+3.0 T	50.0 O	23/30	155/123	6.7/4.1	0/0	21/21	30/32	219/292	2/0	3/0	6.6/9.1	374/415	6.7/6.7
10/30/11 Redskins	23-0	-6.0 W	45.5 U	32/11	139/26	4.3/2.4	1/0	21/20	26/33	252/152	1/2	2/10	9.0/3.5	391/178	6.5/3.3
11/06/11 Jets	11-27	-2.0 L	44.0 U	22/39	96/126	4.4/3.2	1/1	15/20	31/28	191/222	2/1	0/1	6.2/7.7	287/348	5.4/5.1
11/13/11 @ Cowboys	7-44	+5.0 L	48.0 O	17/32	135/165	7.9/5.2	1/0	20/23	31/26	136/270	3/0	1/0	4.3/10.4	271/435	5.5/7.5
11/20/11 @ Dolphins	8-35	+3.0 L	43.0 T	19/35	41/95	2.2/2.7	0/0	21/14	42/20	206/147	2/0	2/1	4.7/7.0	247/242	3.9/4.3
11/27/11 @ Jets	24-28	+9.5 W	41.5 O	28/23	86/138	3.1/6.0	0/1	26/17	39/35	250/180	0/1	3/0	6.0/5.1	336/318	4.8/5.5
12/04/11 Titans	17-23	-2.0 L	43.0 U	22/30	98/188	4.5/6.3	2/0	29/16	45/25	282/130	0/0	1/1	6.1/5.0	380/318	5.6/5.7
12/11/11 @ Chargers	10-37	+7.0 L	47.5 U	19/29	97/142	5.1/4.9	0/1	15/24	37/32	185/216	3/0	1/2	4.9/6.4	282/358	4.9/5.7
12/18/11 Dolphins	23-30	-1.5 L	41.0 O	19/38	113/254	5.9/6.7	0/3	31/10	47/20	293/194	3/0	3/2	5.9/8.8	406/448	5.9/7.5
12/24/11 Broncos	40-14	+3.0 W	43.0 O	27/34	161/134	6.0/3.9	0/0	15/13	27/30	191/160	0/4	1/3	6.8/4.8	352/294	6.4/4.4
01/01/12 @ Patriots	21-49	+10.5 L	50.0 O	19/26	100/141	5.3/5.4	0/0	29/24	46/36	296/342	4/1	2/4	6.2/8.6	396/483	5.9/7.3

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Bills. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Bills/Opponent.

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Week 3 Football Analysis: Bengals vs. Redskins!

Here is some free football betting advice for the upcoming Bengals and Redskins matchup this Sunday.  The Redskins are giving 3 points to the Bengals and the over/under is 49 points. I typically post my free football analysis after 10am on Fridays and you can sign up for my paid Best Bets subscription as well! 

Washington has certainly played better than Cincinnati through the first two weeks, but the Redskins apply to some negative early season indicators. Washington has averaged an impressive 6.5 yards per play with Robert Griffin III out-performing expectations but the Redskins’ defense has allowed 6.5 yppl. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has averaged a modest 5.4 yppl on offense but the Bengals have surrendered 7.3 yppl. These teams have played similar schedule strengths so Washington has been the better team through 2 weeks and my updated ratings favor the Skins by 5 ½ points. However, Washington applies to a negative 28-81-3 ATS early season indicator and a teams that open the season with 2 road games are just 30-52-1 ATS in their home opener in game 3 and they apply to a 0-15 ATS subset of that angle. Washington does apply to a decent 116-72-3 ATS bounce-back situation but that angle is 0-2 ATS when intersecting with the 28-81-3 ATS situation that they also apply to. I’ll pass on this game.

Cincinnati Bengals: SU: 9-8-0, ATS: 8-7-2

GAME LOGS 2011				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/11/11 @ Browns	27-17	+6.5 W	35.5 O	31/25	139/84	4.5/3.4	0/0	15/19	27/40	155/202	0/1	4/2	5.0/4.8	294/286	4.7/4.3
09/18/11 @ Broncos	22-24	+3.5 W	40.0 O	19/35	74/133	3.9/3.8	0/2	27/15	41/25	310/187	0/0	2/2	7.2/6.9	384/320	6.2/5.2
09/25/11 49ers	8-13	-2.5 L	40.5 U	20/28	79/68	4.0/2.4	1/1	17/20	32/30	149/176	2/0	1/5	4.5/5.0	228/244	4.3/3.9
10/02/11 Bills	23-20	+3.0 W	43.5 U	32/21	171/83	5.3/4.0	0/0	18/20	36/34	287/190	2/0	2/1	7.6/5.4	458/273	6.5/4.9
10/09/11 @ Jaguars	30-20	+2.0 W	36.5 O	31/26	77/97	2.5/3.7	0/2	21/14	33/27	162/180	1/0	2/3	4.6/6.0	239/277	3.6/4.9
10/16/11 Colts	27-17	-7.0 W	41.0 O	29/23	95/94	3.3/4.1	0/2	25/23	32/34	264/179	0/1	0/1	8.3/5.1	359/273	5.9/4.7
10/30/11 @ Seahawks	34-12	-2.5 W	37.5 O	27/20	92/61	3.4/3.1	0/1	18/25	29/47	160/350	2/1	1/4	5.3/6.9	252/411	4.4/5.8
11/06/11 @ Titans	24-17	+2.5 W	42.0 U	29/20	110/78	3.8/3.9	0/1	22/24	39/40	210/250	0/0	1/2	5.3/6.0	320/328	4.6/5.3
11/13/11 Steelers	17-24	+3.0 L	41.5 U	26/27	109/107	4.2/4.0	0/0	15/21	30/33	170/223	2/1	0/5	5.7/5.9	279/330	5.0/5.1
11/20/11 @ Ravens	24-31	+7.0 T	40.5 O	30/26	119/107	4.0/4.1	0/0	24/17	46/27	364/268	3/1	2/1	7.6/9.6	483/375	6.2/6.9
11/27/11 Browns	23-20	-7.0 L	37.5 O	31/30	133/134	4.3/4.5	1/0	21/16	31/34	257/140	0/1	2/2	7.8/3.9	390/274	6.1/4.2
12/04/11 @ Steelers	7-35	+6.5 L	42.5 U	22/30	104/138	4.7/4.6	1/0	14/15	30/23	128/159	1/0	3/3	3.9/6.1	232/297	4.2/5.3
12/11/11 Texans	19-20	-3.0 L	38.0 O	29/27	101/145	3.5/5.4	2/3	16/26	28/42	184/268	0/1	1/5	6.3/5.7	285/413	4.9/5.6
12/18/11 @ Rams	20-13	-7.0 T	38.5 U	32/23	112/96	3.5/4.2	0/0	15/25	26/36	173/210	1/0	1/3	6.4/5.4	285/306	4.8/4.9
12/24/11 Cardinals	23-16	-4.5 W	41.0 U	34/18	165/59	4.9/3.3	2/0	18/23	31/43	136/257	0/3	2/5	4.1/5.4	301/316	4.5/4.8
01/01/12 Ravens	16-24	+2.0 L	38.5 O	23/32	106/221	4.6/6.9	1/0	22/15	44/19	231/126	0/0	1/1	5.1/6.3	337/347	5.0/6.7
01/07/12 @ Texans	10-31	+4.0 L	38.5 O	19/34	76/190	4.0/5.6	0/0	27/11	42/20	224/152	3/0	4/2	4.9/6.9	300/342	4.6/6.1

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Bengals. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Bengals/Opponent.

Washington Redskins: SU: 5-11-0, ATS: 7-9-0

GAME LOGS 2011				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/11/11 Giants	28-14	+3.0 W	37.0 O	25/20	52/75	2.1/3.8	1/0	21/18	34/32	258/240	0/1	4/4	6.8/6.7	310/315	4.9/5.6
09/18/11 Cardinals	22-21	-3.5 L	44.5 U	31/15	177/93	5.7/6.2	0/1	25/17	43/30	283/231	2/1	1/3	6.4/7.0	460/324	6.1/6.8
09/26/11 @ Cowboys	16-18	+4.5 W	45.5 U	22/25	65/126	3.0/5.0	1/1	22/22	36/36	233/250	1/1	3/1	6.0/6.8	298/376	4.9/6.1
10/02/11 @ Rams	17-10	-2.5 W	43.5 U	38/17	198/45	5.2/2.6	0/1	15/20	29/43	143/127	2/0	0/7	4.9/2.5	341/172	5.1/2.6
10/16/11 Eagles	13-20	+1.5 L	47.0 U	14/35	42/195	3.0/5.6	0/0	17/18	37/32	245/230	4/2	2/2	6.3/6.8	287/425	5.4/6.2
10/23/11 @ Panthers	20-33	+2.5 L	43.5 O	22/35	93/177	4.2/5.1	2/0	22/18	37/23	261/232	1/0	3/4	6.5/8.6	354/409	5.7/6.6
10/30/11 @ Bills	0-23	+6.0 L	45.5 U	11/32	26/139	2.4/4.3	0/1	20/21	33/26	152/252	2/1	10/2	3.5/9.0	178/391	3.3/6.5
11/06/11 49ers	11-19	+3.5 L	37.5 U	15/30	52/140	3.5/4.7	2/1	30/17	46/24	251/188	1/0	1/2	5.3/7.2	303/328	4.9/5.9
11/13/11 @ Dolphins	9-20	+4.0 L	37.5 U	16/33	61/103	3.8/3.1	0/1	21/20	32/29	185/200	2/1	3/2	5.3/6.5	246/303	4.8/4.7
11/20/11 Cowboys	24-27	+7.5 W	41.5 O	24/30	60/91	2.5/3.0	1/0	25/23	38/37	276/264	1/0	3/4	6.7/6.4	336/355	5.2/5.0
11/27/11 @ Seahawks	23-17	+3.5 W	37.5 O	25/30	114/124	4.6/4.1	0/0	26/14	35/30	306/126	2/1	1/2	8.5/3.9	420/250	6.9/4.0
12/04/11 Jets	19-34	+3.0 L	38.5 O	23/28	100/103	4.3/3.7	2/1	19/19	46/32	204/165	1/0	2/0	4.3/5.2	304/268	4.3/4.5
12/11/11 Patriots	27-34	+8.0 W	48.0 O	34/19	170/80	5.0/4.2	1/0	19/22	32/37	244/352	1/1	2/1	7.2/9.3	414/432	6.1/7.6
12/18/11 @ Giants	23-10	+6.5 W	46.5 U	39/18	124/91	3.2/5.1	0/0	15/23	24/40	177/233	2/3	1/3	7.1/5.4	301/324	4.7/5.3
12/24/11 Vikings	26-33	-7.0 L	44.0 O	24/38	141/241	5.9/6.3	1/0	26/12	40/18	256/148	1/0	3/2	6.0/7.4	397/389	5.9/6.7
01/01/12 @ Eagles	10-34	+8.0 L	46.0 U	25/19	130/75	5.2/3.9	0/1	22/24	45/39	247/315	1/1	1/2	5.4/7.7	377/390	5.3/6.5

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Redskins. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Redskins/Opponent. Click this link to sign up for my sports handicapping advice!