Friday's Baseball Best Bets!

As most of you know, I don’t do handicapping for baseball because I like to take a break from my time preparing to handicap football, but I have discovered a great baseball handicapper that I respect that uses methods that are in line with my theories on finding value in other sports.

Free Baseball Plays from Gill Alexander for Friday, July 27th

1* Take Pittsburgh Pirates (Karstens) -154 @ Houston Astros (Lyles)
Don’t play above -155
8:05 ET

2* Take Detroit Tigers (Porcello) +107 @ Toronto Blue Jays (Villanueva)
Don’t play above -115
7:05 ET

2* Take Tampa Bay Rays (Cobb) +152 @ LA Angels (Haren)
Don’t play below +135
10:05 ET


Gill Alexander
Gill Alexander's sports betting advice uses advanced sabermetrics. He is known for his informative “Betting Dork” podcasts. I’ve had discussions with Gill on his methods and have been impressed with his approach to finding hidden value in baseball. I’ve never had another handicapper on my site, but I believe in Gill’s handicapping enough to start posting his baseball plays on my site (with his consent, of course).

Performance
Previous 4 Seasons TOTAL: 761-654 (54%) for +61.60 Units
2012 Through All-Star Break: 143- 122 (54%) for +33.60 Units
Total MLB Record: 904-776 (54%) for +95.20 Units

Gill is hitting the same percentage in his sports investments as in previous seasons but is winning with more underdogs this season and enters the 2nd half of the season on a 23-12 run. Most of Gill’s plays are 1-Star or 2-Star but he has an occasional 3-Star play.

Gill was 1-1 on Thursday for +1.10 Stars and is now -6.32 Stars since the All- Star Break and +27.28 Stars for the season. Gill was winning big before the All-Star break but dropped over 20 stars the first week posting on my site, but he’s now won 6 straight days.

Dr. Bob Bring's the Betting Dork On Board!

Free Baseball Betting Advice!

As I'm sure that most of you know, I don’t typically do baseball handicapping because I need a little break from my long hours and sleepless nights to get ready for football handicapping. Recently, though, I discovered a baseball expert that I respect who uses similar methods to mine regarding finding value from other sports.

Gill Alexander handicaps baseball using advanced sabermetrics and is known for his informative “Betting Dork” podcasts. I’ve had several in depth discussions with Gill on his methods and have been impressed with his approach to finding hidden value in baseball. This is a first for me, as I’ve never had another handicapper on my site, but I believe in Gill’s handicapping enough to start posting his baseball picks on DrBobSports.com (with his consent, of course).

I’m in the process of getting a baseball page up and working on my site but in the meantime I’m going to post Gill’s sports betting advice on my Free on my free basketball analysis page each day (usually by 10 am Pacific).

Here is Gill Alexander’s historical performance on his baseball plays.

Previous 4 Seasons TOTAL: 761-654 (54%) for +61.60 Stars
2012 Through All-Star Break: 143-122 (54%) for +33.60 Stars
Total MLB Record: 904-776 (54%) for +95.20 Stars

Gill is hitting the same percentage as in previous seasons but is winning with more underdogs this season and enters the 2nd half of the season on a 23-12 run. Most of Gill’s plays are 1-Star or 2-Star but he has an occasional 3-Star play.

Gill was 1-3 on Thursday for -2.65 Stars and is now -12.59 Stars since the All-Star Break and +21.01 Stars for the season.

Free Baseball Plays from Gill Alexander for Friday, July 20th

2* Take Philadelphia Phillies (Worley) -125 v San Francisco Giants (Lincecum)
Don’t play above -140
7:05 ET

2* Take Chicago White Sox (Peavy) +162 @ Detroit Tigers (Verlander)
Don’t play below +145
7:05 ET

3* Take Milwaukee Brewers (Estrada) +125 @ Cincinnati Reds (Bailey)
Don’t play below +100
7:10 ET

1* Take Texas Rangers (Holland) +136 @ LA Angels (Weaver)
Don’t play below +125
10:05 ET

Image source: http://www.mlb-sportsbooks.com/

Check Out My Sports Handicapping Stats!

Here are some charts that go over the stats on my sports betting service since 1999! 

I currently recommend wagering 2.0% of your initial bankroll per Star on my Football Best Bets, 1.5% of your initial bankroll per Star in Basketball, and wagering 1.6% in Football and 1.4% in Basketball when using the Combo Package (from 1999-00 through 2008-09 I recommended 1.2% per star in basketball with the combo package and the return on investment percentages for those years reflect that). Over the last twelve years, my Football / Basketball Sports Handicapping Combo package has averaged a 60.5% return on investment with a standard deviation of 90.2%.

Notes for charts below:
• All records shown as Win-Loss-Push.
• Opinions ("Strong Opinions") are not included in Total Stars Calculations.
• Total Stars is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.
• Win% is Stars Won/(Stars Won + Stars Lost)
• Net Stars is Stars Won - 1.1 * Stars Lost + Props/Futures

College Football Records

NCAA FB	5-Star	4-Star	3-Star	2-Star	Opinions	Total Stars	Win%	Props/Futures	Net Stars
1999-00	0-0-0	1-0-0	23-9-0	25-22-1	0-0-0	123-71-2	63.4	0.0	+ 44.9
2000-01	0-0-0	2-1-0	16-8-0	29-16-0	0-0-0	114-60-0	65.5	0.0	+ 48.0
2001-02	0-0-0	0-2-0	13-7-0	22-19-0	38-31-2	83-67-0	55.3	0.0	+ 9.3
2002-03	0-0-0	3-1-0	17-20-1	29-23-2	36-38-3	121-110-7	52.4	0.0	-0.0
2003-04	0-0-0	1-2-0	16-17-1	29-36-1	43-29-1	110-131-5	45.6	0.0	-34.1
2004-05	0-0-0	0-1-0	21-17-0	34-16-1	44-24-0	131-87-2	60.1	0.0	+ 35.3
2005-06	1-0-0	5-2-0	21-3-1	24-16-1	39-27-0	136-49-5	73.5	0.0	+ 82.1
2006-07	1-0-0	7-3-0	18-15-1	19-16-2	37-39-1	125-89-7	58.4	0.0	+ 27.1
2007-08	0-0-0	1-5-0	12-17-1	19-20-0	43-48-0	78-111-3	41.3	0.0	-44.1
2008-09	0-0-0	2-0-0	22-16-3	19-15-1	47-30-1	112-78-11	58.9	0.0	+ 26.2
2009-10	0-0-0	2-3-0	16-16-1	17-14-1	44-34-0	90-88-5	50.6	+4.0	-2.8
2010-11	0-0-0	3-2-0	15-14-0	28-18-1	37-44-2	113-86-2	56.8	+0.9	+ 19.3
2011-12	0-0-0	0-2-0	14-16-0	28-23-1	36-37-0	98-102-2	49.0	+12.9	-1.3
L13 Years	2-0-0	27-24-0	224-175-9	322-254-12	444-381-10	1434-1129-51	56.0	+17.8	+209.9

NFL Records

NFL	4-Star	3-Star	2-Star	Opinions	Total Stars	Win%	Props/Futures	Net Stars
1999-00	2-2-0	18-8-0	25-30-1	0-0-0	112-92-2	54.9	0.0	+ 10.8
2000-01	4-2-1	15-11-1	22-19-1	0-0-0	105-79-9	57.1	0.0	+ 18.1
2001-02	1-1-1	17-12-1	17-13-2	28-18-0	89-66-11	57.4	0.0	+ 16.4
2002-03	3-1-0	20-12-2	25-31-1	25-14-1	122-102-8	54.5	0.0	+ 9.8
2003-04	3-1-0	16-23-1	18-19-0	16-17-0	96-111-3	46.4	0.0	-26.1
2004-05	1-1-1	21-10-0	14-16-1	30-23-2	95-66-6	59.0	0.0	+ 22.4
2005-06	2-0-0	12-20-1	13-17-1	19-29-0	70-94-5	42.7	0.0	-33.4
2006-07	2-2-0	14-17-2	13-15-1	22-15-1	76-89-8	46.1	0.0	-21.9
2007-08	1-0-0	11-8-1	12-14-0	24-20-0	61-52-3	54.0	0.0	+ 3.8
2008-09	1-0-0	12-8-0	6-12-0	20-10-2	52-48-0	52.0	+5.3	+ 4.5
2009-10	0-0-0	4-2-0	8-9-0	23-26-1	28-24-0	53.8	+2.0	+ 3.6
2010-11	0-0-0	5-8-0	10-14-0	20-21-1	35-52-0	40.2	0.0	-22.2
2011-12	0-0-0	4-3-0	14-17-1	28-10-0	40-43-2	48.2	0.0	-7.3
L13 Years	20-10-3	169-142-9	197-226-9	255-203-8	981-918-57	51.7	+7.3	-21.5

College Basketball Records

NCAA BB	4-Star	3-Star	2-Star	Opinions	Total Stars	Win%	Props/Futures	Net Stars
1999-00	8-5-0	47-35-4	52-54-2	0-0-0	277-233-16	54.3	0.0	+ 20.7
2000-01	1-1-0	45-53-0	92-61-3	0-0-0	323-285-6	53.1	0.0	+ 9.5
2001-02	2-2-0	48-29-2	102-85-3	0-0-0	356-265-12	57.3	0.0	+ 64.5
2002-03	5-5-0	74-68-4	85-80-5	0-0-0	412-384-22	51.8	0.0	-10.4
2003-04	5-4-1	76-48-4	114-86-5	0-0-0	476-332-26	58.9	0.0	+110.8
2004-05	8-11-1	68-61-2	79-79-3	0-0-0	394-385-16	50.6	0.0	-29.5
2005-06	2-8-0	76-47-1	85-59-1	0-0-0	406-291-5	58.2	0.0	+ 85.9
2006-07	10-10-0	62-46-1	51-57-1	0-0-0	328-292-5	52.9	0.0	+ 6.8
2007-08	4-6-1	61-58-4	55-64-3	0-0-0	309-326-22	48.7	0.0	-49.6
2008-09	2-2-0	55-41-3	60-64-1	0-0-0	293-259-11	53.1	0.0	+ 8.1
2009-10	1-1-0	42-41-1	79-59-2	0-0-0	288-245-7	54.0	0.0	+ 18.5
2010-11	2-2-0	40-40-2	81-56-2	0-0-0	290-240-10	54.7	0.0	+ 26.0
2011-12	2-3-0	59-56-1	97-77-3	0-0-0	379-334-9	53.2	0.0	+ 11.6
L13 Years	52-60-3	753-623-29	1032-881-34	0-0-0	4531-3871-167	53.9	0.0	+272.9

NBA Basketball Records

NBA	4-Star	3-Star	2-Star	Opinions	Total Stars	Win%	Props/Futures	Net Stars
1999-00	2-4-0	35-29-3	71-46-2	0-0-0	255-195-13	56.7	0.0	+ 40.5
2000-01	2-3-0	22-16-3	76-64-3	0-0-0	226-188-15	54.6	0.0	+ 19.2
2001-02	1-2-0	23-15-1	55-39-2	0-0-0	183-131-7	58.3	0.0	+ 38.9
2002-03	2-1-0	31-29-1	38-55-1	0-0-0	177-201-5	46.8	0.0	-44.1
2003-04	2-1-0	24-21-1	54-42-4	0-0-0	188-151-11	55.5	0.0	+ 21.9
2004-05	2-1-0	28-24-3	38-29-0	0-0-0	168-134-9	55.6	0.0	+ 20.6
2005-06	3-1-1	20-21-1	48-31-2	0-0-0	168-129-11	56.6	0.0	+ 26.1
2006-07	2-0-0	22-25-2	24-24-0	0-0-0	122-123-6	49.8	0.0	-13.3
2007-08	0-2-0	29-18-0	32-20-0	0-0-0	151-102-0	59.7	0.0	+ 38.8
2008-09	2-0-0	19-18-0	27-33-0	0-0-0	119-120-0	49.8	0.0	-13.0
2009-10	0-0-0	20-18-1	39-28-0	0-0-0	138-110-3	55.6	0.0	+ 17.0
2010-11	1-0-0	19-13-0	40-48-3	0-0-0	141-135-6	51.1	+11.0	+ 3.5
2011-12	0-0-0	12-14-0	36-42-1	0-0-0	108-126-2	46.2	-1.8	-32.4
L13 Years	19-15-1	304-261-16	578-501-18	0-0-0	2144-1845-88	53.7	+9.2	+123.7

Summary

FOOTBALL TOTALS Year Net Stars ROI 1999-00 (1) + 55.7 +111.4% 2000-01 (2) + 66.1 +132.2% 2001-02 (3) + 25.7 + 51.4% 2002-03 (4) + 9.8 + 19.6% 2003-04 (5) -60.2 -120.4% 2004-05 (6) + 57.7 +115.4% 2005-06 (7) + 48.7 + 97.4% 2006-07 (8) + 5.2 + 10.4% 2007-08 (9) -40.3 -80.6% 2008-09 (10) + 30.7 + 61.4% 2009-10 (11) + 0.8 + 1.6% 2010-11 (12) -2.9 -5.8% 2011-12 (13) -8.6 -17.2% Total +188.4 +376.8% Average + 14.5 + 29.0%

BASKETBALL TOTALS Year Net Stars ROI 1999-00 + 61.2 + 91.8% 2000-01 + 28.7 + 43.0% 2001-02 +103.4 +155.1% 2002-03 -54.5 -81.8% 2003-04 +132.7 +199.0% 2004-05 -8.9 -13.4% 2005-06 +112.0 +168.0% 2006-07 -6.5 -9.8% 2007-08 -10.8 -16.2% 2008-09 -4.9 -7.4% 2009-10 + 35.5 + 53.2% 2010-11 + 29.5 + 44.2% 2011-12 -20.8 -31.2% Total +396.6 +594.9% Average + 30.5 + 45.8%

BB+FB COMBINED TOTALS Year Net Stars ROI 1999-00 +116.9 +162.6% 2000-01 + 94.8 +140.2% 2001-02 +129.1 +165.2% 2002-03 -44.7 -49.7% 2003-04 + 72.5 + 62.9% 2004-05 + 48.8 + 81.6% 2005-06 +160.7 +212.3% 2006-07 -1.3 + 0.5% 2007-08 -51.1 -77.4% 2008-09 + 25.8 + 43.2% 2009-10 + 36.3 + 51.0% 2010-11 + 26.6 + 36.7% 2011-12 -29.4 -42.9% Total +585.0 +786.2% Average + 45.0 + 60.5%