Basketball Best Bets 205-189-5 for -13.2 Stars
I lost my 2-Star Best Bet on Miami -1 1/2 and my Strong Opinion on the Clippers-Spurs Over 194 lost by 1 point. I'm 8-6 on my playoff Best Bets (19-12 on Stars), 0-1 on my series bets for -1.0 Stars (Denver +165 against the Lakers), and 4-4 on my playoff Strong Opinions so far.
The
NBA regular season was frustrating to say the least (I won on my College Best Bets), but I am 320-257-13 (55.6%) lifetime on my NBA Playoff Best Bets and I picked up +13.7 Stars in the NBA playoffs last season (+5.8 this year). The strange scheduling during the regular season isn't likely to affect the normal playoff patterns, so I'm hoping to close the season strong.
I am now 205-189-5 on my Basketball Best Bets and 485-452-11 on a Star Basis (2-3 on 4-Stars, 71-68-1 on 3-Stars and 132-118-4 on 2-Stars) for -12.2 Stars at -1.10 odds and I'm -1.0 Stars on playoff series Bets. It's been a frustrating season, but I'm +487.5 Stars of profit the last 14 seasons and have averaged over 40 Stars of profit over my 24 years and thousands of Best Bets, which is more indicative of my future results than my 52% record so far this season.
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2010/2011 Season Results
Best Bets 442-375-16 on a Star Basis
I lost my 2-Star Best Bet on the Under but the win by Dallas resulted in a profit of +3.2 Stars on the series (2-Stars risked at +1.60 odds). My
sports analysis had Dallas rated as the best team in the NBA heading into the playoffs and that proved to be the case. In the playoffs I was 12-10 on Best Bets (despite losing a 5 point dog in OT), 14-9-2 on Strong Opinions, 16-21 on leans and 3-0 on Series Bets for +11.0 Stars (1 Star on Memphis over San Antonio for +3.3 Stars, 1.5 Stars on Dallas over the Lakers for +4.5 Stars, and 2 Stars on Dallas over the Heat for +3.2 Stars).
I had another profitable season of Basketball Best Bets despite losing more close games than I won (15-21 on Best Bets decided by 1 point or less). For the season I was 442-375-16 on a Star Basis (3-2 on 4-Stars, 59-53-2 on 3-Stars and 121-104-5 on 2-Stars and 3-0 on playoff series bets for +11.0 Stars) for a profit of +29.5 Stars at -1.10 odds. Had I gone 18-18 on those close games I would have profited another 14 Stars, so I'm satisfied with my level of handicapping despite not profiting as much as I usually do in Basketball.
Basketball Best Bets +500.7 Stars Last 13 Seasons!
My Basketball Best Bets are 6609-5553-265 on a Star Basis the last 13 seasons, for a profit of +500.7 Stars at -1.10 odds, and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 24 seasons.
Free Analysis
I post free
basketball handicapping analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.
I'm 11-8 on my free Best Bets and 115-105-7 on my free opinions this season.
Last season I was 12-6 on my free Best Bets and 105-88-2 on my free opinions and I am 38-30-1 on my Free Best Bets and 428-378-12 on my free opinions the previous 4 seasons.
Friday, May 18, 2012
PHILADELPHIA (-2) over Boston
Boston took back home court advantage in this series with a resounding 107-91 victory here in game 3, but result sets up the Sixers in a 71-30-2 ATS playoff bounce-back situation that is 15-3 ATS in game 4 of a series. My ratings favor Philadelphia by just 1 point, so the line is a bit high, but the situation is certainly good enough for me to side with the 76ers despite the negative line value. I’ll lean with Philadelphia minus the points. I have no opinion on the total.
Oklahoma City (+2 ½) vs L.A. LAKERS
The general pattern for teams down 2 games to 0 in a playoff series is to bounce back at home in game 3 (home teams are 94-76-5 ATS after losing the first two games) but the odds makers adjust for that pattern now (it’s 7-16-2 ATS since 2009) and my ratings favor the Lakers by 2 points after making the proper adjustment. That game 3 bounce-back pattern actually doesn’t apply to inferior teams (it’s just 61-61-4 ATS if the home team is not favored by more than 4 points) so there is nothing that favors the Lakers here, especially since the proper adjustment has been made to the line to reflect the situation. I have no opinion on the side of this game.
UNDER (190 ½) - Oklahoma City at L.A. LAKERS
The first two games in this series were played at a very slow pace and the success that the Lakers had in slowing game 2 down even more should convince the coaching staff to use the same tactics again tonight. Game 1 went over due to very high combined scoring efficiency, but the pace of that game was slower than expected. Game 2 had an even slower pace and lower than expected scoring efficiency and totaled just 152 total points. Overall the combined scoring efficiency in the first two games is right around projections but the pace is about 5 ½ possessions per team slower than expected and would result in a prediction of just 180 ½ total points if they played at the same pace with expected scoring efficiencies. The first two games of this series averaged just 180 ½ total points, so the pace could be a few possessions higher than it’s been and still go under the total. My math model would predict 191 points using all games this season (adjusted for the normal slower pace of playoff games), but using each team’s playoff games only compensated pace would result in 184 ½ total points since each team is playing their playoff games at a slower than expected pace. I’ll lean Under the total.
