Free Analysis: Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee v.  Jacksonville 

 

 

Every Friday I post my free sports betting advice on my site. I wanted to Favor Jacksonville this time around, but struggled to find them winning in the statistics considering their injuries. It should be an interesting game and I look forward to seeing the results.

 

 

Over/Under Total: 42.0

10:00 AM Pacific Time, Sunday, 30-Dec-2012

I would have been tempted to play Jacksonville as a Best Bet if big play WR Cecil Shorts wasn’t through the season with a concussion. Shorts is the only real weapon in the Jaguars’ pass attack, as he tallied 906 yards and averaged an impressive 9.2 yards per pass thrown to him. Justin Blackmon is emerging as a decent receiver but he averages just 6.6 yards per target and the rest of the Jags’ receivers combine to average about 5 yards per target, so the pass attack will be significantly down without Shorts, although not much worse than their season rating since Chad Henne is better than Blaine Gabbert was at quarterback. The Jaguars’ defense has improved in recent weeks since picking up Pro-Bowl DE Jason Babin and inserting CB Mike Harris into the starting lineup in week 13. In 4 games with Babin and Harris in the starting lineup the Jaguars have allowed only 5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Some of that can probably be attributed to variance but there is no doubt that Jacksonville is playing their best defense of the season right now and holding Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 4.9 yppl last week was a great effort. Tennessee’s offensive line is down 3 starters and Jake Locker has been sacked 18 times in the last 4 games, so the Titans are worse now than they’ve been over the course of the season. My math still favors Tennessee by 3 ½ points but the Titans apply to a 27-65 ATS situation that plays against home favorites that allowed more than 35 points in their last game and Jacksonville applies to a 184-98-6 ATS road underdog situation that plays on bad teams after a close, spread covering loss. It’s too bad that Shorts is out but I still like the Jaguars.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
JAC-Offense	15.7	21	83	3.8	0.60	20	36	0.80	212	5.8	2.9	5.4	295	4.8
JAC-Defense	27.1	32	146	4.5	0.73	22	34	0.73	246	7.1	1.2	6.9	392	5.7
League Average	22.7	26	116	4.4	0.66	21	34	0.92	232	6.7	2.3	6.3	348	5.5
TEN-Offense	19.5	22	108	4.8	0.80	20	35	1.00	212	6.0	2.5	5.7	319	5.3
TEN-Defense	30.1	29	129	4.4	0.33	23	34	1.07	244	7.0	2.1	6.6	372	5.6

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Jacksonville Jaguars: SU: 2-13-0, ATS: 7-8-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Vikings	23-26	+3.5 W	39.5 O	33/29	114/123	3.5/4.2	1/1	23/20	39/27	249/266	0/0	2/2	6.1/9.2	363/389	4.9/6.7
09/16/12 Texans	7-27	+7.0 L	41.0 U	13/46	65/219	5.0/4.8	1/0	9/26	21/35	52/195	0/0	3/0	2.2/5.6	117/414	3.2/5.1
09/23/12 @ Colts	22-17	+3.0 W	42.0 U	32/29	185/124	5.8/4.3	0/0	10/22	21/44	148/313	0/1	1/0	6.7/7.1	333/437	6.2/6.0
09/30/12 Bengals	10-27	+2.5 L	43.5 U	18/31	69/141	3.8/4.5	1/1	23/20	34/31	143/244	1/1	6/0	3.6/7.9	212/385	3.7/6.2
10/07/12 Bears	3-41	+5.0 L	41.0 O	16/33	61/214	3.8/6.5	1/0	17/23	33/39	129/287	2/1	3/1	3.6/7.2	190/501	3.7/6.9
10/21/12 @ Raiders	23-26	+4.0 W	44.0 O	25/25	55/70	2.2/2.8	1/2	17/26	32/45	155/282	0/1	3/2	4.4/6.0	210/352	3.5/4.9
10/28/12 @ Packers	15-24	+14.5 W	45.5 U	20/25	62/67	3.1/2.7	1/1	27/22	49/36	279/172	0/0	2/2	5.5/4.5	341/239	4.8/3.8
11/04/12 Lions	14-31	+4.0 L	44.0 O	20/32	64/151	3.2/4.7	0/0	27/22	38/33	215/285	2/0	1/1	5.5/8.4	279/436	4.7/6.6
11/08/12 Colts	10-27	+3.5 L	43.0 U	12/29	37/146	3.1/5.0	1/1	28/18	47/26	300/221	2/1	4/2	5.9/7.9	337/367	5.3/6.4
11/18/12 @ Texans	37-43	+15.0 W	40.5 O	29/35	86/136	3.0/3.9	1/1	18/43	35/55	372/504	0/2	2/2	10.1/8.8	458/640	6.9/7.0
11/25/12 Titans	24-19	+4.0 W	44.5 U	24/29	100/110	4.2/3.8	0/0	17/23	26/40	221/251	1/1	7/1	6.7/6.1	321/361	5.6/5.2
12/02/12 @ Bills	18-34	+6.0 L	44.0 O	17/45	51/233	3.0/5.2	1/1	18/9	41/17	186/112	0/1	4/0	4.1/6.6	237/345	3.8/5.6
12/09/12 Jets	10-17	+3.0 L	38.5 U	24/41	123/167	5.1/4.1	0/2	21/12	42/19	168/104	1/0	3/1	3.7/5.2	291/271	4.2/4.4
12/16/12 @ Dolphins	3-24	+7.5 L	37.5 U	21/33	86/182	4.1/5.5	0/1	18/22	34/29	213/209	0/0	2/1	5.9/7.0	299/391	5.2/6.2
12/23/12 Patriots	16-23	+14.0 W	50.5 U	23/27	93/103	4.0/3.8	0/0	29/24	51/41	343/246	3/2	1/3	6.6/5.6	436/349	5.8/4.9

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Jaguars. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Jaguars/Opponent.

Tennessee Titans: SU: 5-10-0, ATS: 6-9-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 Patriots	13-34	+5.0 L	47.0 T	16/34	20/163	1.3/4.8	1/0	29/23	43/31	264/228	1/0	2/1	5.9/7.1	284/391	4.7/5.9
09/16/12 @ Chargers	10-38	+6.0 L	43.0 O	10/39	38/148	3.8/3.8	0/0	15/24	30/32	174/268	1/1	0/4	5.8/7.4	212/416	5.3/5.5
09/23/12 Lions	44-41	+3.5 W	46.5 O	19/36	59/141	3.1/3.9	2/1	29/42	42/53	378/396	0/0	0/1	9.0/7.3	437/537	7.2/6.0
09/30/12 @ Texans	14-38	+12.0 L	45.0 O	28/29	159/97	5.7/3.3	1/0	17/20	27/28	167/202	2/0	4/0	5.4/7.2	326/299	5.5/5.2
10/07/12 @ Vikings	7-30	+5.5 L	44.0 U	18/30	53/176	2.9/5.9	1/0	29/25	48/35	215/258	1/2	2/1	4.3/7.2	268/434	3.9/6.6
10/11/12 Steelers	26-23	+6.0 W	44.0 O	22/22	94/56	4.3/2.5	0/0	25/24	44/40	265/356	1/1	3/1	5.6/8.7	359/412	5.2/6.5
10/21/12 @ Bills	35-34	+3.5 W	46.5 O	26/24	199/166	7.7/6.9	0/1	22/27	33/35	193/216	0/1	2/1	5.5/6.0	392/382	6.4/6.4
10/28/12 Colts	13-19	-3.5 L	47.0 U	25/33	112/172	4.5/5.2	0/0	22/26	29/38	227/286	0/1	2/2	7.3/7.2	339/458	6.1/6.3
11/04/12 Bears	20-51	+3.5 L	43.5 O	18/33	159/163	8.8/4.9	4/1	20/19	35/26	174/198	1/0	2/3	4.7/6.8	333/361	6.1/5.8
11/11/12 @ Dolphins	37-3	+6.0 W	44.0 U	34/14	180/55	5.3/3.9	0/1	9/23	22/39	116/201	0/3	1/2	5.0/4.9	296/256	5.2/4.7
11/25/12 @ Jaguars	19-24	-4.0 L	44.5 U	29/24	110/100	3.8/4.2	0/0	23/17	40/26	251/221	1/1	1/7	6.1/6.7	361/321	5.2/5.6
12/02/12 Texans	10-24	+7.0 L	47.0 U	17/32	89/128	5.2/4.0	3/0	21/21	45/35	265/207	3/0	6/0	5.2/5.9	354/335	5.2/5.0
12/09/12 @ Colts	23-27	+5.5 W	46.5 O	24/27	97/100	4.0/3.7	0/0	22/16	35/34	259/171	2/2	1/4	7.2/4.5	356/271	5.9/4.2
12/17/12 Jets	14-10	-2.0 W	41.5 U	29/30	168/146	5.8/4.9	0/1	13/13	22/29	127/107	0/4	4/4	4.9/3.2	295/253	5.4/4.0
12/23/12 @ Packers	7-55	+12.5 L	44.5 O	22/35	79/117	3.6/3.3	0/0	13/28	30/40	101/343	2/0	7/1	2.7/8.4	180/460	3.1/6.1

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Titans. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Titans/Opponent.