Free Analysis: ATLANTA Falcons VS. NY Giants

This game will be close because both teams aren't favored over the other, but by my math Atlanta has the advantage. I post my free analysis everything Friday around 1 pm Pacific Standard time. If you happen to like my sports betting advice hopefully I’ll see you again next Friday for another round of excellent games.

The 11-2 Falcons are clearly not as good as their record, as they've out-gained opponents by only 16 yards per game while averaging 5.9 yards per play and allowing 5.9 yppl, but I do respect their coaching staff for getting the most out of this team and finding ways to win most of their close games. I also respect the fact that Atlanta is an incredible 19-3 straight up and 17-4-1 ATS after a loss under coach Smith with all 3 losses coming in games in which they were an underdog of more than 6 points. The Falcons are 19-0 straight up after a loss when not a dog of more than 6 points and they covered the spread in those 3 losses, which means that they've either won straight up or covered in all 22 games following a loss (they’re 12-0 ATS after a loss when not laying more than 4 points). That bodes well for the Falcons today, as does the fact that the Giants apply to a negative 49-114-4 ATS road letdown situation and a completely independent 69-137-3 ATS (those situations have only overlapped twice and the record is 0-2 ATS). 

The Giants aren't that impressive from the line of scrimmage either, as they've actually been out-gained by 4 yards per game while averaging 6.0 yppl and allowing 6.2 yppl. The Giants do apply to a 128-80-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator but that indicator is not that strong and the situations and teams trends favoring Atlanta are very strong. My math model favors the Giants and my other model, which takes into account more intangibles (which the Falcons have in their favor), favors the Falcons by 1 point. I like the Falcons here and I’d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion at -1 or better.

Over/Under Total: 51.0

10:00 AM Pacific Time, Sunday, 16-Dec-2012

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
NYG-Offense	28.7	25	117	4.6	0.38	21	35	1.00	257	7.2	1.2	7.0	374	6.0
NYG-Defense	20.8	25	125	4.9	1.08	20	33	1.54	253	7.6	2.4	7.1	377	6.2
League Average	22.9	26	116	4.4	0.64	21	34	0.92	234	6.7	2.2	6.3	350	5.5
ATL-Offense	25.9	22	88	4.0	0.31	26	39	1.08	289	7.4	1.8	7.0	378	5.9
ATL-Defense	19.9	25	127	4.9	0.62	20	33	1.15	234	7.0	2.2	6.6	361	5.9

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

New York Giants: SU: 8-5-0, ATS: 6-6-1

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/05/12 Cowboys	17-24	-3.5 L	45.5 U	19/23	82/148	4.3/6.4	1/0	21/22	32/29	187/290	0/1	3/2	5.3/9.4	269/438	5.0/8.1
09/16/12 Buccaneers	41-34	-7.0 T	44.5 O	23/22	96/79	4.2/3.6	0/0	31/15	51/28	510/228	3/2	0/2	10.0/7.6	606/307	8.2/5.9
09/20/12 @ Panthers	36-7	+2.5 W	49.0 U	29/20	125/60	4.3/3.0	0/2	28/19	37/33	280/267	0/3	2/2	7.2/7.6	405/327	6.0/5.9
09/30/12 @ Eagles	17-19	+1.5 L	47.5 U	19/35	57/192	3.0/5.5	0/0	24/19	42/30	309/231	1/0	0/2	7.4/7.2	366/423	6.0/6.3
10/07/12 Browns	41-27	-8.5 W	44.0 O	32/19	244/84	7.6/4.4	1/1	25/22	37/35	259/291	1/2	0/0	7.0/8.3	503/375	7.3/6.9
10/14/12 @ 49ers	26-3	+6.5 W	45.5 U	35/17	152/80	4.3/4.7	0/0	15/23	28/37	193/234	0/3	0/6	6.9/5.4	345/314	5.5/5.2
10/21/12 Redskins	27-23	-6.0 L	51.0 U	18/38	65/248	3.6/6.5	0/3	26/20	40/28	329/232	2/1	1/3	8.0/7.5	394/480	6.7/7.0
10/28/12 @ Cowboys	29-24	-2.0 W	47.5 O	28/16	103/20	3.7/1.3	1/2	15/36	29/61	190/415	1/4	1/4	6.3/6.4	293/435	5.1/5.4
11/04/12 Steelers	20-24	-3.5 L	47.5 U	22/32	68/164	3.1/5.1	0/1	10/21	24/29	114/191	1/1	2/4	4.4/5.8	182/355	3.8/5.5
11/11/12 @ Bengals	13-31	-3.5 L	49.0 U	20/26	129/78	6.5/3.0	2/1	29/21	46/30	189/199	2/0	4/0	3.8/6.6	318/277	4.5/4.9
11/25/12 Packers	38-10	-3.0 W	50.5 U	30/26	148/116	4.9/4.5	0/1	16/15	30/27	243/201	0/1	1/5	7.8/6.3	391/317	6.4/5.5
12/03/12 @ Redskins	16-17	-3.0 L	51.0 U	29/30	117/208	4.0/6.9	0/1	20/13	33/21	273/163	0/0	1/0	8.0/7.8	390/371	6.2/7.3
12/09/12 Saints	52-27	-5.0 W	53.0 O	27/24	135/142	5.0/5.9	0/2	22/26	35/43	259/345	2/2	0/1	7.4/7.8	394/487	6.4/7.2

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Giants. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Giants/Opponent.

Atlanta Falcons: SU: 11-2-0, ATS: 7-5-1

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Chiefs	40-24	-2.5 W	43.5 O	23/32	84/153	3.7/4.8	0/1	23/21	31/33	292/241	0/2	1/3	9.1/6.7	376/394	6.8/5.8
09/17/12 Broncos	27-21	-3.0 W	51.0 U	26/27	70/118	2.7/4.4	0/1	24/24	36/37	208/218	0/3	1/3	5.6/5.5	278/336	4.4/5.0
09/23/12 @ Chargers	27-3	+3.0 W	47.5 U	26/16	119/117	4.6/7.3	0/2	30/21	40/38	265/164	1/2	2/1	6.3/4.2	384/281	5.6/5.1
09/30/12 Panthers	30-28	-7.0 L	48.0 O	19/35	121/199	6.4/5.7	0/1	25/15	40/25	305/205	1/0	7/3	6.5/7.3	426/404	6.5/6.4
10/07/12 @ Redskins	24-17	-3.0 W	51.5 U	26/21	85/129	3.3/6.1	1/0	34/15	52/24	338/187	1/2	1/3	6.4/6.9	423/316	5.4/6.6
10/14/12 Raiders	23-20	-9.0 L	48.5 U	15/32	45/149	3.0/4.7	0/2	24/23	37/33	241/325	3/1	1/3	6.3/9.0	286/474	5.4/7.0
10/28/12 @ Eagles	30-17	+2.5 W	45.0 O	37/24	146/92	3.9/3.8	0/0	22/21	29/35	246/164	0/0	2/3	7.9/4.3	392/256	5.8/4.1
11/04/12 Cowboys	19-13	-4.0 W	47.5 U	26/18	123/65	4.7/3.6	0/0	24/25	34/35	330/312	0/0	3/1	8.9/8.7	453/377	7.2/7.0
11/11/12 @ Saints	27-31	-2.5 L	53.5 O	18/28	46/149	2.6/5.3	0/0	34/21	52/32	408/292	1/1	1/1	7.7/8.8	454/441	6.4/7.2
11/18/12 Cardinals	23-19	-9.5 L	44.0 U	21/26	61/137	2.9/5.3	1/1	28/11	46/27	296/41	5/0	1/3	6.3/1.4	357/178	5.3/3.2
11/25/12 @ Buccaneers	24-23	-1.0 T	51.0 U	22/21	87/50	4.0/2.4	1/0	26/20	32/31	345/276	1/0	1/2	10.5/8.4	432/326	7.9/6.0
11/29/12 Saints	23-13	-3.5 W	54.5 U	20/23	126/101	6.3/4.4	1/0	18/28	33/50	159/335	0/4	1/1	4.7/6.6	285/436	5.3/5.9
12/09/12 @ Panthers	20-30	-3.5 L	48.0 O	11/32	35/195	3.2/6.1	0/0	34/23	49/35	327/280	1/0	2/1	6.4/7.8	362/475	5.8/7.0

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Falcons. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Falcons/Opponent.