Free Anaylsis Denver Broncos v Oakland Raiders

This should make for a fairly interesting game. The underdogs pose a significant challenge and it should be interesting to see who comes out on top. I post my free analysis everything Friday around 1 pm Pacific Standard time. If you happen to like my sports betting advice hopefully I'll see you again next Friday for another round of excellent games.

 

My math model favors Denver by 13 points but math doesn’t really matter with double-digit home underdogs. Home underdogs of 8 points or more are on a 23-2 ATS run, including 14-0 ATS more recently, and the Broncos struggled to win at Kansas City as a double-digit favorite a few weeks ago (won 17-9). NFL road favorites of 10 points or more are just 39% ATS since 1980 and the record is just 37-71-2 ATS if the road favorite is not off a loss (a loss would give them more incentive) and not off a bye (road favorites off a bye are good bets). The fact that the Raiders weren’t horrible defensively last week in their 17-20 home loss to Cleveland is also a good sign, as that 37-71-2 ATS mark becomes 17-46-2 ATS if the home dog allowed 30 points or fewer in their previous game. That becomes 8-35-1 ATS for the double-digit road favorite if the road team does not have the revenge motive on their side (Denver beat Oakland 37-6 in week 4). The only thing keeping this from being a slam dunk letdown is the fact that this game is nationally televised, as Thursday favorites of more than 7 points are 29-14 ATS (7-1 ATS for road favorites or more than 7). I’ll still lean with Oakland at +10 points or more.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
DEN-Offense	29.1	25	105	4.1	1.00	25	37	0.75	282	7.6	1.3	7.3	387	6.0
DEN-Defense	20.3	26	97	3.7	0.42	21	36	1.08	212	5.8	3.2	5.4	309	4.7
League Average	22.9	26	116	4.4	0.65	21	34	0.92	235	6.7	2.2	6.3	351	5.5
OAK-Offense	19.6	21	83	3.8	0.67	25	42	1.00	279	6.6	2.1	6.3	362	5.5
OAK-Defense	31.3	26	133	5.0	0.58	22	34	0.67	257	7.5	1.2	7.3	389	6.3

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Denver Broncos: SU: 9-3-0, ATS: 7-5-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 Steelers	31-19	-1.5 W	46.0 O	24/26	98/75	4.1/2.9	1/0	19/22	26/39	240/209	0/1	2/5	8.6/4.8	338/284	6.5/4.1
09/17/12 @ Falcons	21-27	+3.0 L	51.0 U	27/26	118/70	4.4/2.7	1/0	24/24	37/36	218/208	3/0	3/1	5.5/5.6	336/278	5.0/4.4
09/23/12 Texans	25-31	+1.5 L	44.5 O	21/34	59/152	2.8/4.5	0/1	25/17	50/30	286/284	0/1	3/1	5.4/9.2	345/436	4.7/6.7
09/30/12 Raiders	37-6	-7.0 W	49.0 U	36/16	167/56	4.6/3.5	1/0	30/19	39/34	338/181	0/0	0/3	8.7/4.9	505/237	6.7/4.5
10/07/12 @ Patriots	21-31	+6.5 L	52.5 U	19/51	71/254	3.7/5.0	3/1	31/23	44/31	332/193	0/0	2/4	7.2/5.5	403/447	6.2/5.2
10/15/12 @ Chargers	35-24	+1.0 W	49.5 O	19/27	59/90	3.1/3.3	2/2	24/25	30/41	309/218	1/4	0/4	10.3/4.8	368/308	7.5/4.3
10/28/12 Saints	34-14	-6.0 W	55.5 U	40/16	226/52	5.7/3.3	1/0	22/22	30/42	305/201	0/1	0/1	10.2/4.7	531/253	7.6/4.3
11/04/12 @ Bengals	31-23	-3.5 W	47.5 O	24/25	70/91	2.9/3.6	0/0	27/26	35/41	291/275	2/1	0/5	8.3/6.0	361/366	6.1/5.2
11/11/12 @ Panthers	36-14	-4.0 W	47.5 O	20/21	67/52	3.4/2.5	2/0	27/21	38/36	295/198	0/2	1/7	7.6/4.6	362/250	6.1/3.9
11/18/12 Chargers	30-23	-7.5 L	48.5 O	25/23	133/53	5.3/2.3	1/1	25/24	42/40	253/224	1/2	3/4	5.6/5.1	386/277	5.5/4.1
11/25/12 @ Chiefs	17-9	-10.5 L	44.0 U	22/30	99/149	4.5/5.0	0/0	22/13	37/26	273/116	1/0	2/2	7.0/4.1	372/265	6.1/4.6
12/02/12 Buccaneers	31-23	-7.0 W	50.5 O	29/21	91/71	3.1/3.4	0/0	27/18	38/39	242/235	1/1	0/1	6.4/5.9	333/306	5.0/5.0

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Broncos. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Broncos/Opponent.

Oakland Raiders: SU: 3-9-0, ATS: 3-9-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/10/12 Chargers	14-22	-1.0 L	46.0 U	18/19	45/34	2.5/1.8	1/0	32/24	46/33	276/226	0/0	3/1	5.6/6.6	321/260	4.8/4.9
09/16/12 @ Dolphins	13-35	-2.5 L	39.5 O	13/42	23/264	1.8/6.3	0/0	24/18	48/30	373/189	1/0	0/1	7.8/6.1	396/453	6.5/6.2
09/23/12 Steelers	34-31	+3.5 W	45.5 O	21/20	119/54	5.7/2.7	0/2	24/36	34/47	202/379	1/0	1/1	5.8/7.9	321/433	5.7/6.4
09/30/12 @ Broncos	6-37	+7.0 L	49.0 U	16/36	56/167	3.5/4.6	0/1	19/30	34/39	181/338	0/0	3/0	4.9/8.7	237/505	4.5/6.7
10/14/12 @ Falcons	20-23	+9.0 W	48.5 U	32/15	149/45	4.7/3.0	2/0	23/24	33/37	325/241	1/3	3/1	9.0/6.3	474/286	7.0/5.4
10/21/12 Jaguars	26-23	-4.0 L	44.0 O	25/25	70/55	2.8/2.2	2/1	26/17	45/32	282/155	1/0	2/3	6.0/4.4	352/210	4.9/3.5
10/28/12 @ Chiefs	26-16	+1.5 W	42.0 T	33/21	136/103	4.1/4.9	0/2	14/22	28/34	209/197	1/2	0/3	7.5/5.3	345/300	5.7/5.2
11/04/12 Buccaneers	32-42	-1.5 L	46.5 O	11/28	22/298	2.0/10.6	0/1	40/18	62/30	402/237	3/0	2/1	6.3/7.6	424/535	5.7/9.1
11/11/12 @ Ravens	20-55	+7.5 L	47.0 O	24/27	72/71	3.0/2.6	2/0	29/21	46/34	350/341	1/1	3/0	7.1/10.0	422/412	5.8/6.8
11/18/12 Saints	17-38	+5.0 L	55.0 T	26/26	120/153	4.6/5.9	0/0	22/21	40/28	284/229	2/0	3/0	6.6/8.2	404/382	5.9/7.1
11/25/12 @ Bengals	10-34	+8.0 L	50.5 U	23/31	99/224	4.3/7.2	1/0	19/16	34/30	119/194	0/0	4/2	3.1/6.1	218/418	3.6/6.6
12/02/12 Browns	17-20	+2.5 L	37.5 U	17/30	85/122	5.0/4.1	0/0	34/25	54/36	344/353	1/2	1/1	6.3/9.5	429/475	6.0/7.1

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Raiders. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Raiders/Opponent.