Free Football Analysis for Week 8: Lions vs. Seahawks!

Here is some more free football analysis for week 8 of the 2012 NFL Season! The Lions are giving Seattle 2.5 points and the over/under is 43 total points. I usually post this analysis every Friday around 10:00 AM (PST). Be sure to check out my Facebook and Twitter accounts as well, as I run a lot of contests and giveaways!

The Lions are much better than their 2-4 record, out-gaining a tough schedule of opponents 399 yards at 5.6 yards per play to 320 yards at 5.1 yppl. Detroit’s opponents would out-gain an average team by 0.5 yppl and the Lions are actually one of the better teams in the league in compensated yards per play differential. However, the Lions have been horrible in special teams, which have cost them 3.2 points per game, and they’re -5 in turnover margin. The good news for Lions’ fans is that turnovers and special teams are subject to a lot of variance and it’s unlikely that those things will continue to haunt them to the degree they have so far. Seattle is a good team, rating at 0.8 yards per play better than average defensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively, so this is not a game that the Lions are likely to dominate. However, my math model does favor Detroit by 3 ½ points and I have situations favoring both sides in this game. I lean with Detroit at -3 or less.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
SEA-Offense	16.6	32	134	4.2	0.57	14	24	1.00	158	6.4	2.0	5.9	293	5.0
SEA-Defense	15.1	22	86	3.8	0.57	21	36	0.86	212	5.8	2.7	5.4	298	4.8
League Average	23.0	26	114	4.3	0.67	21	34	0.99	240	6.8	2.3	6.4	354	5.5
DET-Offense	22.2	24	100	4.1	0.83	28	45	1.00	299	6.6	2.0	6.3	399	5.6
DET-Defense	25.0	26	110	4.2	0.67	21	33	0.33	210	6.2	2.7	5.8	320	5.1

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Seattle Seahawks: SU: 4-3-0, ATS: 5-2-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Cardinals	16-20	-2.5 L	40.5 U	33/19	115/44	3.5/2.3	1/1	18/20	34/36	139/210	1/1	3/1	3.8/5.7	254/254	3.6/4.5
09/16/12 Cowboys	27-7	+3.0 W	42.5 U	41/15	182/50	4.4/3.3	0/1	15/23	20/40	133/247	0/1	2/1	6.0/6.0	315/297	5.0/5.3
09/24/12 Packers	14-12	+3.5 W	46.5 U	29/21	127/84	4.4/4.0	0/0	9/26	20/39	87/184	0/0	1/8	4.1/3.9	214/268	4.3/3.9
09/30/12 @ Rams	13-19	-2.5 L	39.0 U	34/25	179/77	5.3/3.1	0/0	17/16	25/29	140/209	3/1	2/2	5.2/6.7	319/286	5.2/5.1
10/07/12 @ Panthers	16-12	+3.0 W	43.5 U	33/19	117/82	3.5/4.3	1/2	19/12	25/29	212/108	2/0	2/4	7.9/3.3	329/190	5.5/3.7
10/14/12 Patriots	24-23	+3.5 W	44.5 O	25/26	85/87	3.4/3.3	2/0	16/36	27/58	283/388	0/2	2/1	9.8/6.6	368/475	6.8/5.6
10/18/12 @ 49ers	6-13	+7.5 W	37.5 U	29/32	136/175	4.7/5.5	0/0	9/14	23/23	115/138	1/1	2/2	4.6/5.5	251/313	4.6/5.5

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Seahawks. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Seahawks/Opponent.

Detroit Lions: SU: 2-4-0, ATS: 2-4-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 Rams	27-23	-7.5 L	45.5 O	18/26	83/79	4.6/3.0	0/0	32/17	47/25	346/169	3/0	1/3	7.2/6.0	429/248	6.5/4.6
09/16/12 @ 49ers	19-27	+6.5 L	46.5 U	25/24	83/151	3.3/6.3	0/1	19/20	32/31	214/201	1/0	2/3	6.3/5.9	297/352	5.0/6.1
09/23/12 @ Titans	41-44	-3.5 L	46.5 O	36/19	141/59	3.9/3.1	1/2	42/29	53/42	396/378	0/0	1/0	7.3/9.0	537/437	6.0/7.2
09/30/12 Vikings	13-20	-4.5 L	47.0 U	20/28	55/127	2.8/4.5	1/0	30/16	50/26	286/100	0/0	5/2	5.2/3.6	341/227	4.5/4.1
10/14/12 @ Eagles	26-23	+3.5 W	47.5 O	28/29	138/71	4.9/2.4	0/1	22/28	45/46	311/286	1/2	0/3	6.9/5.8	449/357	6.2/4.6
10/22/12 @ Bears	7-13	+6.5 W	47.0 U	18/32	99/171	5.5/5.3	3/0	28/17	46/32	241/125	1/0	3/5	4.9/3.4	340/296	5.1/4.3

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Lions. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Lions/Opponent.

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