Free Football Analysis for Week 7: Steelers vs. Bengals!

Here's this week's free sports betting advice! Cincinnati is a one point dog and the over/under is forty five and a half points. I post my football analysis on Fridays around 10am so check the site early and often if you want to get your bets in before they change the lines.

Pittsburgh is out-gaining their opponents by 64 yards per game but they’re having trouble turning that yardage advantage into a points advantage (just +0.2 points margin). That’s discrepancy between yards and points isn't likely to continue and the Steelers are a good team. Winning on the road has been an issue for the Steelers, who have already lost at Denver, at Oakland, and at Tennessee this season but they should be able to squeak by a sub-par Bengals team that is 3-3 despite playing an easy schedule. The Bengals are okay from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.1 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense but the Steelers are average offensively and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively and are likely to run significantly more plays with their new ball control offense (they average 9 more plays per game than their opponents). My math model favors Pittsburgh by 3 ½ points but the Steelers apply to a negative 49-93-6 ATS statistical indicator that is based on their high penalty count (8.2 penalties per game). I think passing on this game is the best option.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
PIT-Offense	23.2	25	77	3.0	0.40	25	38	0.40	283	7.3	2.0	7.0	361	5.5
PIT-Defense	23.0	22	96	4.3	0.80	19	32	0.40	201	6.2	2.2	5.8	297	5.2
League Average	23.2	26	112	4.3	0.65	21	34	1.02	242	6.9	2.3	6.4	355	5.6
CIN-Offense	24.8	24	100	4.1	0.83	23	35	1.50	271	7.6	2.8	7.0	371	5.9
CIN-Defense	27.2	27	120	4.4	0.83	21	31	0.33	226	7.1	3.5	6.4	346	5.5

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Pittsburgh Steelers: SU: 2-3-0, ATS: 1-4-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Broncos	19-31	+1.5 L	46.0 O	26/24	75/98	2.9/4.1	0/1	22/19	39/26	209/240	1/0	5/2	4.8/8.6	284/338	4.1/6.5
09/16/12 Jets	27-10	-5.0 W	41.5 U	28/22	66/90	2.4/4.1	0/1	24/10	31/27	265/129	0/0	3/2	7.8/4.4	331/219	5.3/4.3
09/23/12 @ Raiders	31-34	-3.5 L	45.5 O	20/21	54/119	2.7/5.7	2/0	36/24	47/34	379/202	0/1	1/1	7.9/5.8	433/321	6.4/5.7
10/07/12 Eagles	16-14	-3.5 L	43.0 U	31/23	136/78	4.4/3.4	0/2	21/20	36/30	207/168	0/0	0/3	5.8/5.1	343/246	5.1/4.4
10/11/12 @ Titans	23-26	-6.0 L	44.0 O	22/22	56/94	2.5/4.3	0/0	24/25	40/44	356/265	1/1	1/3	8.7/5.6	412/359	6.5/5.2

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Steelers. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Steelers/Opponent.

Cincinnati Bengals: SU: 3-3-0, ATS: 3-3-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/10/12 @ Ravens	13-44	+7.0 L	41.5 O	27/22	129/123	4.8/5.6	1/0	22/23	37/32	193/308	1/0	4/3	4.7/8.8	322/431	4.7/7.6
09/16/12 Browns	34-27	-6.5 W	38.5 O	24/23	81/130	3.4/5.7	0/1	24/26	31/37	295/309	1/0	6/2	8.0/7.9	376/439	6.2/7.1
09/23/12 @ Redskins	38-31	+3.0 W	49.0 O	27/34	94/213	3.5/6.3	1/1	19/21	27/33	312/168	1/0	2/6	10.8/4.3	406/381	7.3/5.2
09/30/12 @ Jaguars	27-10	-2.5 W	43.5 U	31/18	141/69	4.5/3.8	1/1	20/23	31/34	244/143	1/1	0/6	7.9/3.6	385/212	6.2/3.7
10/07/12 Dolphins	13-17	-3.0 L	45.0 U	19/31	80/72	4.2/2.3	1/2	26/17	43/26	218/211	2/0	3/2	4.7/7.5	298/283	4.6/4.8
10/14/12 @ Browns	24-34	-2.0 L	44.0 O	20/34	76/111	3.8/3.3	1/0	31/17	46/29	362/218	3/1	2/2	7.5/7.0	438/329	6.4/5.1

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Bengals. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Bengals/Opponent.

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