Free Football Analysis: Atlanta vs. Oakland!

Here is some more free football analysis for week six of the 2012 NFL season. Oakland is a nine point dog in this matchup and rightfully so, as they are facing a tough undefeated Atlanta squad. The over/under in this one is 48.5 points.

Bad teams like Oakland usually play well coming out of their bye week, as the week off gives a struggling team time to stop the bleeding and tends to renew dampened spirits. In fact, teams with a win percentage of less than .300 are 77-42 ATS as an underdog or pick after their bye week (from week 5 on), including 49-22 ATS against a team coming off a win. The Raiders also apply to an early season 68-24-6 ATS early season contrary angle and this game is certainly contrary given the Raiders’ struggled and the Falcons’ perfect record. However, Atlanta has a bye week next week and big home favorites have done very well heading into their bye weeks and the Falcons apply to a 34-9 ATS situation that is based on that premise. The bad team after the bye and the big home favorite before their bye angles have actually intersected one time and the big road dog covered easily in that one game (not that that means much). Overall the technical analysis does favor Oakland but my math model favors the Falcons by 13 points after adjusting for the Raiders’ horrible pass defense the last two games without both starting cornerbacks. I’ll lean slightly with Atlanta but I wouldn’t suggest betting this game (although I did use Atlanta in my survivor pool).

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
OAK-Offense	16.8	17	61	3.6	0.25	24	40	0.50	258	6.4	1.8	6.1	319	5.4
OAK-Defense	31.3	29	130	4.4	0.75	27	37	0.00	283	7.6	0.8	7.4	413	6.1
League Average	23.0	26	112	4.2	0.67	21	34	0.96	240	6.8	2.3	6.4	352	5.5
ATL-Offense	29.6	24	95	3.9	0.20	27	39	0.60	282	7.1	2.4	6.7	377	5.7
ATL-Defense	18.6	26	143	5.5	1.00	19	31	1.80	203	6.5	2.6	6.0	346	5.8

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Oakland Raiders: SU: 1-3-0, ATS: 1-3-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/10/12 Chargers	14-22	-1.0 L	46.0 U	18/19	45/34	2.5/1.8	1/0	32/24	46/33	276/226	0/0	3/1	5.6/6.6	321/260	4.8/4.9
09/16/12 @ Dolphins	13-35	-2.5 L	39.5 O	13/42	23/264	1.8/6.3	0/0	24/18	48/30	373/189	1/0	0/1	7.8/6.1	396/453	6.5/6.2
09/23/12 Steelers	34-31	+3.5 W	45.5 O	21/20	119/54	5.7/2.7	0/2	24/36	34/47	202/379	1/0	1/1	5.8/7.9	321/433	5.7/6.4
09/30/12 @ Broncos	6-37	+7.0 L	49.0 U	16/36	56/167	3.5/4.6	0/1	19/30	34/39	181/338	0/0	3/0	4.9/8.7	237/505	4.5/6.7

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Raiders. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Raiders/Opponent.

Atlanta Falcons: SU: 5-0-0, ATS: 4-1-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Chiefs	40-24	-2.5 W	43.5 O	23/32	84/153	3.7/4.8	0/1	23/21	31/33	292/241	0/2	1/3	9.1/6.7	376/394	6.8/5.8
09/17/12 Broncos	27-21	-3.0 W	51.0 U	26/27	70/118	2.7/4.4	0/1	24/24	36/37	208/218	0/3	1/3	5.6/5.5	278/336	4.4/5.0
09/23/12 @ Chargers	27-3	+3.0 W	47.5 U	26/16	119/117	4.6/7.3	0/2	30/21	40/38	265/164	1/2	2/1	6.3/4.2	384/281	5.6/5.1
09/30/12 Panthers	30-28	-7.0 L	48.0 O	19/35	121/199	6.4/5.7	0/1	25/15	40/25	305/205	1/0	7/3	6.5/7.3	426/404	6.5/6.4
10/07/12 @ Redskins	24-17	-3.0 W	51.5 U	28/21	83/129	3.0/6.1	1/0	34/15	52/24	338/187	1/2	1/3	6.4/6.9	421/316	5.2/6.6

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Falcons. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Falcons/Opponent.

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