Free College Football Analysis: Temple vs. Cincinnati!

Check out this week's football analysis for Temple versus Cincinnati! The over and under this week is 53.5 points and Cinci is giving away 9.5 points.

Temple has lost their last 3 games by margins of 25, 30, and 28 points but the Owls aren’t as bad as those scores make them appear to be and Cincinnati isn’t as good as their 6-2 record. Temple certainly wasn’t good either but being -7 in turnovers in those 3 big losses added to their problems and supplies us with some line value today.

Temple is having a disappointing season and the Owls 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively but that’s actually good enough to compete with an overrated Cincinnati team. The Bearcats have outgained their 8 opponents 6.5 yppl to 5.4 yppl but they’ve played a very easy schedule of teams that would get outgained 5.5 yppl to 6.3 yppl by an average team – so Cincy is only 0.3 yppl better than average after compensating for their opposition. The Bearcats also have an interception prone quarterback in Munchie Legaux, who has thrown 9 interceptions on just 230 pass attempts this season (3.9%, which is well above the national average of 2.9%). Temple’s Chris Coyer has only thrown 3 interceptions on 200 career pass attempts (1.5%), so the Owls’ recent turnover problems are clearly random and my math model projects Temple with a 0.5 edge in turnovers in this game.

There is talk that Cincinnati will replace Legaux with senior Brenden Kay, who came off the bench last week and sparked the offense. That would be fine with me since Kay hasn’t been good enough in 4 years to crack the starting lineup and his 7.3 yards per attempt in his 13 career passes is less than Legaux’s 7.6 ypa and Kay doesn’t run as well. If Kay were a better quarterback then he’d have won the job at some point during his 4 year career and talk of a change probably isn’t doing much for Legaux’s confidence.

The fair line on this game is actually 8 points and Temple applies to a 64-21-2 ATS contrary situation that plays on home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 3 games against a road favorite off 2 or more spread wins. I’d consider Temple a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
Cincinnati-Offense	34.3	39	233	5.9	0.88	15	30	1.13	221	7.2	0.9	7.2	454	6.5
Cincinnati-Defense	19.9	30	151	4.9	1.00	22	41	1.00	241	5.8	2.8	5.8	392	5.4
League Average	27.2	35	178	4.9	0.82	19	33	0.92	211	6.3	2.0	6.3	390	5.6
Temple-Offense	22.4	39	200	5.1	1.38	10	22	0.38	108	4.8	2.1	4.8	308	5.0
Temple-Defense	29.9	36	182	5.1	1.13	18	32	0.50	240	7.4	2.5	7.4	422	6.2

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Cincinnati: SU: 6-2-0, ATS: 7-1-0

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/06/12 Pittsburgh	34-10	-4.0 W	31/42	271/179	8.7/4.3	0/1	14/24	28/37	193/236	0/1	1/6	6.7/5.5	464/415	7.7/4.9
09/15/12 Delaware State	23-7	0.0 W	49/25	275/126	5.6/5.0	4/1	20/18	27/36	192/138	2/1	2/2	6.6/3.6	467/264	6.0/4.2
09/29/12 @ Virginia Tech	27-24	+6.5 W	32/34	111/169	3.5/5.0	1/1	20/17	43/30	384/233	1/2	1/1	8.7/7.5	495/402	6.5/6.2
10/06/12 Miami Ohio	52-14	-19.5 W	50/19	272/79	5.4/4.2	0/1	13/27	23/53	157/300	0/3	0/3	6.8/5.4	429/379	5.9/5.1
10/13/12 Fordham	49-17	0.0 W	33/29	217/86	6.6/3.0	0/1	15/31	24/42	255/230	0/0	1/3	10.2/5.1	472/316	8.1/4.3
10/20/12 @ Toledo	23-29	-6.5 L	35/42	251/249	7.2/5.9	0/1	15/13	37/24	227/107	2/0	0/3	6.1/4.0	478/356	6.6/5.2
10/26/12 @ Louisville	31-34	+3.5 W	41/37	200/122	4.9/3.3	0/0	13/24	28/41	153/402	3/1	1/3	5.3/9.1	353/524	5.0/6.5
11/03/12 Syracuse	35-24	-4.0 W	52/41	270/199	5.2/4.9	2/2	16/23	27/47	206/280	1/0	1/1	7.4/5.8	476/479	6.0/5.4

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Cincinnati. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Cincinnati/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

Temple: SU: 3-5-0, ATS: 3-5-0

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
08/31/12 Villanova	41-10	0.0 W	47/43	301/250	6.4/5.8	0/1	5/11	11/24	61/119	0/1	0/4	5.5/4.3	362/369	6.2/5.2
09/08/12 Maryland	27-36	-10.0 L	37/45	121/181	3.3/4.0	2/4	7/11	18/21	153/159	1/0	3/4	7.3/6.4	274/340	4.7/4.9
09/22/12 @ Penn St.	13-24	+7.0 L	28/40	133/175	4.8/4.4	0/0	13/24	26/36	104/318	0/1	3/0	3.6/8.8	237/493	4.2/6.5
10/06/12 South Florida	37-28	+3.5 W	47/44	254/180	5.4/4.1	0/2	16/18	20/31	159/204	0/1	1/2	7.6/6.2	413/384	6.1/5.0
10/13/12 @ Connecticut	17-14	+5.5 W	49/40	223/112	4.6/2.8	1/1	13/22	26/39	111/271	1/0	4/6	3.7/6.0	334/383	4.2/4.5
10/20/12 Rutgers	10-35	+5.5 L	42/29	130/147	3.1/5.1	2/1	8/17	17/27	61/225	1/1	1/1	3.4/8.0	191/372	3.2/6.5
10/27/12 @ Pittsburgh	17-47	+6.5 L	40/36	143/217	3.6/6.0	2/0	18/20	28/28	181/311	0/0	3/1	5.8/10.7	324/528	4.6/8.1
11/03/12 @ Louisville	17-45	+16.0 L	40/31	292/196	7.3/6.3	4/0	6/22	16/33	36/314	0/0	2/2	2.0/9.0	328/510	5.7/7.7

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Temple. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Temple/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

I try to post this sports betting advice on my site every Friday around 10 am Pacific Time. Visit www.drbobsports.com for more!

Week 9 Anaylsis: Cougars vs Pirates

Here is some football handicapping advice for the Cougars and Pirates game this weekend. I post this analysis around 10 in the morning every Friday! I consider Houston a strong contender in this game. They have had a run in with some bad luck, but I believe the Pirates will have a tough time competing with their offense.

Houston has had a couple of deceiving final scores the last two weeks, as the Cougars lost 42-72 to SMU and beat UTEP 45-35 as a 13 ½ point favorite. Houston’s 30 point loss to SMU was worse than it should have been because the Cougars were -7 in turnovers, which is a heavy dose of negative variance. Houston averaged 5.7 yppl and gave up 6.2 yppl, so they certainly weren’t as bad as the final score would indicate and starting quarterback David Piland has thrown 1 or fewer interceptions in 6 of the 8 games this season, so the Cougars aren’t really turnover prone. Last week’s 45-35 win over UTEP was actually a 45-7 blowout win that turned into a spread loss after Houston put their backup defense in and gave up 4 touchdowns. The Cougars did benefit from a +4 turnover margin but they averaged 5.8 yppl while their starting defensive unit allowed just 3.8 yppl.

The misleading results from the last two weeks appears to have given us some line value in favor of Houston. Houston’s offense is 0.1 yppl worse than average for the season but that unit has been 0.1 yppl better than average since firing their offensive coordinator after a week 1 loss to Texas State. The Cougars have been particularly good recently, scoring 35 points or more in 5 straight games, and they should continue to thrive against a sub-par East Carolina defense that’s allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average team.

It will be tough for East Carolina to keep up with an offense that is 0.3 yppl worse than average in 7 games with Shane Carden as the starting quarterback (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team). Houston’s defense is only 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively when their first team offense is on the field, so they’re a bit better than the Pirates’ offense.

Overall my math model projects 486 yards at 6.1 yppl for Houston and 410 yards at 5.6 yppl for ECU and the Cougars have a special teams advantage. My math model gives the Cougars a 55.3% chance of covering at -3 points and I’d consider Houston a Strong Opinion at -3 or less.


Sign up for my sports betting advice packages!

Week 9 Anaylsis: Bears v Huskies

Here is some football handicapping advice for the Huskies and Bears game this weekend. I post this analysis around 10 in the morning every Friday! The Bears seem to be the better team, but they suffer from horrible play calling on the 3rd downs. It should be an interesting game!

The Bears are only 2-6 against Division 1A teams but they’ve only been outgained by an average of 48 yards by a tough schedule of teams and have actually averaged 5.7 yards per play (with starting QB Maynard in the game) while their solid defense has allowed just 5.5 yppl to a schedule that would outgain an average team 6.0 yppl to 5.2 yppl. So, Cal is actually 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively. Cal doesn’t perform well on 3rd downs on offense thanks to horrible play calling, so they do run 10 fewer plays per game than their opponents. Cal’s star WR Keenan Allen is going to shut down for a few weeks to rest his aching knees and that hurts Cal’s pass attack. I do like the young receivers on this team, and Zach Maynard tends to focus too much on throwing to his talented half-brother, so it may not be as much of a drop in the pass attack without Allen if it forces Maynard to look for the open receiver instead of locking in on Allen (which opponents are wise to). In fact, Allen has been thrown to 90 times this season for 737 yards, which is 8.2 yards per pass attempt. All the other Cal wide receivers and tight ends have been thrown to 121 times for 998 yards, which is also 8.2 yards per pass. So, there is no evidence that Cal’s pass attack will be any worse, although the defenders usually double teaming Allen can double someone else or be used in run support – so there should be some residual affect from Allen not playing.

My math model projects Washington to run 10 more plays than the Bears in this game but actually projects Cal with 23 more total yards because Washington is a below average team from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average on offense (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average attack) and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense).


Click here to sign up for my sports betting advice packages!

Free Football Analysis for Week 8: Lions vs. Seahawks!

Here is some more free football analysis for week 8 of the 2012 NFL Season! The Lions are giving Seattle 2.5 points and the over/under is 43 total points. I usually post this analysis every Friday around 10:00 AM (PST). Be sure to check out my Facebook and Twitter accounts as well, as I run a lot of contests and giveaways!

The Lions are much better than their 2-4 record, out-gaining a tough schedule of opponents 399 yards at 5.6 yards per play to 320 yards at 5.1 yppl. Detroit’s opponents would out-gain an average team by 0.5 yppl and the Lions are actually one of the better teams in the league in compensated yards per play differential. However, the Lions have been horrible in special teams, which have cost them 3.2 points per game, and they’re -5 in turnover margin. The good news for Lions’ fans is that turnovers and special teams are subject to a lot of variance and it’s unlikely that those things will continue to haunt them to the degree they have so far. Seattle is a good team, rating at 0.8 yards per play better than average defensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively, so this is not a game that the Lions are likely to dominate. However, my math model does favor Detroit by 3 ½ points and I have situations favoring both sides in this game. I lean with Detroit at -3 or less.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
SEA-Offense	16.6	32	134	4.2	0.57	14	24	1.00	158	6.4	2.0	5.9	293	5.0
SEA-Defense	15.1	22	86	3.8	0.57	21	36	0.86	212	5.8	2.7	5.4	298	4.8
League Average	23.0	26	114	4.3	0.67	21	34	0.99	240	6.8	2.3	6.4	354	5.5
DET-Offense	22.2	24	100	4.1	0.83	28	45	1.00	299	6.6	2.0	6.3	399	5.6
DET-Defense	25.0	26	110	4.2	0.67	21	33	0.33	210	6.2	2.7	5.8	320	5.1

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Seattle Seahawks: SU: 4-3-0, ATS: 5-2-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Cardinals	16-20	-2.5 L	40.5 U	33/19	115/44	3.5/2.3	1/1	18/20	34/36	139/210	1/1	3/1	3.8/5.7	254/254	3.6/4.5
09/16/12 Cowboys	27-7	+3.0 W	42.5 U	41/15	182/50	4.4/3.3	0/1	15/23	20/40	133/247	0/1	2/1	6.0/6.0	315/297	5.0/5.3
09/24/12 Packers	14-12	+3.5 W	46.5 U	29/21	127/84	4.4/4.0	0/0	9/26	20/39	87/184	0/0	1/8	4.1/3.9	214/268	4.3/3.9
09/30/12 @ Rams	13-19	-2.5 L	39.0 U	34/25	179/77	5.3/3.1	0/0	17/16	25/29	140/209	3/1	2/2	5.2/6.7	319/286	5.2/5.1
10/07/12 @ Panthers	16-12	+3.0 W	43.5 U	33/19	117/82	3.5/4.3	1/2	19/12	25/29	212/108	2/0	2/4	7.9/3.3	329/190	5.5/3.7
10/14/12 Patriots	24-23	+3.5 W	44.5 O	25/26	85/87	3.4/3.3	2/0	16/36	27/58	283/388	0/2	2/1	9.8/6.6	368/475	6.8/5.6
10/18/12 @ 49ers	6-13	+7.5 W	37.5 U	29/32	136/175	4.7/5.5	0/0	9/14	23/23	115/138	1/1	2/2	4.6/5.5	251/313	4.6/5.5

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Seahawks. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Seahawks/Opponent.

Detroit Lions: SU: 2-4-0, ATS: 2-4-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 Rams	27-23	-7.5 L	45.5 O	18/26	83/79	4.6/3.0	0/0	32/17	47/25	346/169	3/0	1/3	7.2/6.0	429/248	6.5/4.6
09/16/12 @ 49ers	19-27	+6.5 L	46.5 U	25/24	83/151	3.3/6.3	0/1	19/20	32/31	214/201	1/0	2/3	6.3/5.9	297/352	5.0/6.1
09/23/12 @ Titans	41-44	-3.5 L	46.5 O	36/19	141/59	3.9/3.1	1/2	42/29	53/42	396/378	0/0	1/0	7.3/9.0	537/437	6.0/7.2
09/30/12 Vikings	13-20	-4.5 L	47.0 U	20/28	55/127	2.8/4.5	1/0	30/16	50/26	286/100	0/0	5/2	5.2/3.6	341/227	4.5/4.1
10/14/12 @ Eagles	26-23	+3.5 W	47.5 O	28/29	138/71	4.9/2.4	0/1	22/28	45/46	311/286	1/2	0/3	6.9/5.8	449/357	6.2/4.6
10/22/12 @ Bears	7-13	+6.5 W	47.0 U	18/32	99/171	5.5/5.3	3/0	28/17	46/32	241/125	1/0	3/5	4.9/3.4	340/296	5.1/4.3

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Lions. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Lions/Opponent.

To sign up for my best bets sports betting advice visit: www.drbobsports.com

Free Football Analysis for Week 7: Steelers vs. Bengals!

Here's this week's free sports betting advice! Cincinnati is a one point dog and the over/under is forty five and a half points. I post my football analysis on Fridays around 10am so check the site early and often if you want to get your bets in before they change the lines.

Pittsburgh is out-gaining their opponents by 64 yards per game but they’re having trouble turning that yardage advantage into a points advantage (just +0.2 points margin). That’s discrepancy between yards and points isn't likely to continue and the Steelers are a good team. Winning on the road has been an issue for the Steelers, who have already lost at Denver, at Oakland, and at Tennessee this season but they should be able to squeak by a sub-par Bengals team that is 3-3 despite playing an easy schedule. The Bengals are okay from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.1 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense but the Steelers are average offensively and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively and are likely to run significantly more plays with their new ball control offense (they average 9 more plays per game than their opponents). My math model favors Pittsburgh by 3 ½ points but the Steelers apply to a negative 49-93-6 ATS statistical indicator that is based on their high penalty count (8.2 penalties per game). I think passing on this game is the best option.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
PIT-Offense	23.2	25	77	3.0	0.40	25	38	0.40	283	7.3	2.0	7.0	361	5.5
PIT-Defense	23.0	22	96	4.3	0.80	19	32	0.40	201	6.2	2.2	5.8	297	5.2
League Average	23.2	26	112	4.3	0.65	21	34	1.02	242	6.9	2.3	6.4	355	5.6
CIN-Offense	24.8	24	100	4.1	0.83	23	35	1.50	271	7.6	2.8	7.0	371	5.9
CIN-Defense	27.2	27	120	4.4	0.83	21	31	0.33	226	7.1	3.5	6.4	346	5.5

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Pittsburgh Steelers: SU: 2-3-0, ATS: 1-4-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/09/12 @ Broncos	19-31	+1.5 L	46.0 O	26/24	75/98	2.9/4.1	0/1	22/19	39/26	209/240	1/0	5/2	4.8/8.6	284/338	4.1/6.5
09/16/12 Jets	27-10	-5.0 W	41.5 U	28/22	66/90	2.4/4.1	0/1	24/10	31/27	265/129	0/0	3/2	7.8/4.4	331/219	5.3/4.3
09/23/12 @ Raiders	31-34	-3.5 L	45.5 O	20/21	54/119	2.7/5.7	2/0	36/24	47/34	379/202	0/1	1/1	7.9/5.8	433/321	6.4/5.7
10/07/12 Eagles	16-14	-3.5 L	43.0 U	31/23	136/78	4.4/3.4	0/2	21/20	36/30	207/168	0/0	0/3	5.8/5.1	343/246	5.1/4.4
10/11/12 @ Titans	23-26	-6.0 L	44.0 O	22/22	56/94	2.5/4.3	0/0	24/25	40/44	356/265	1/1	1/3	8.7/5.6	412/359	6.5/5.2

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Steelers. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Steelers/Opponent.

Cincinnati Bengals: SU: 3-3-0, ATS: 3-3-0

GAME LOGS 2012				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/10/12 @ Ravens	13-44	+7.0 L	41.5 O	27/22	129/123	4.8/5.6	1/0	22/23	37/32	193/308	1/0	4/3	4.7/8.8	322/431	4.7/7.6
09/16/12 Browns	34-27	-6.5 W	38.5 O	24/23	81/130	3.4/5.7	0/1	24/26	31/37	295/309	1/0	6/2	8.0/7.9	376/439	6.2/7.1
09/23/12 @ Redskins	38-31	+3.0 W	49.0 O	27/34	94/213	3.5/6.3	1/1	19/21	27/33	312/168	1/0	2/6	10.8/4.3	406/381	7.3/5.2
09/30/12 @ Jaguars	27-10	-2.5 W	43.5 U	31/18	141/69	4.5/3.8	1/1	20/23	31/34	244/143	1/1	0/6	7.9/3.6	385/212	6.2/3.7
10/07/12 Dolphins	13-17	-3.0 L	45.0 U	19/31	80/72	4.2/2.3	1/2	26/17	43/26	218/211	2/0	3/2	4.7/7.5	298/283	4.6/4.8
10/14/12 @ Browns	24-34	-2.0 L	44.0 O	20/34	76/111	3.8/3.3	1/0	31/17	46/29	362/218	3/1	2/2	7.5/7.0	438/329	6.4/5.1

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Bengals. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Bengals/Opponent.

I have a few different packages available for my sports betting service. Also, check out my Facebook and Twitter pages for info about contests that I'm running (or just to chat sports!)