Free College Football Analysis: Temple vs. Cincinnati!

Check out this week's football analysis for Temple versus Cincinnati! The over and under this week is 53.5 points and Cinci is giving away 9.5 points.

Temple has lost their last 3 games by margins of 25, 30, and 28 points but the Owls aren’t as bad as those scores make them appear to be and Cincinnati isn’t as good as their 6-2 record. Temple certainly wasn’t good either but being -7 in turnovers in those 3 big losses added to their problems and supplies us with some line value today.

Temple is having a disappointing season and the Owls 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively but that’s actually good enough to compete with an overrated Cincinnati team. The Bearcats have outgained their 8 opponents 6.5 yppl to 5.4 yppl but they’ve played a very easy schedule of teams that would get outgained 5.5 yppl to 6.3 yppl by an average team – so Cincy is only 0.3 yppl better than average after compensating for their opposition. The Bearcats also have an interception prone quarterback in Munchie Legaux, who has thrown 9 interceptions on just 230 pass attempts this season (3.9%, which is well above the national average of 2.9%). Temple’s Chris Coyer has only thrown 3 interceptions on 200 career pass attempts (1.5%), so the Owls’ recent turnover problems are clearly random and my math model projects Temple with a 0.5 edge in turnovers in this game.

There is talk that Cincinnati will replace Legaux with senior Brenden Kay, who came off the bench last week and sparked the offense. That would be fine with me since Kay hasn’t been good enough in 4 years to crack the starting lineup and his 7.3 yards per attempt in his 13 career passes is less than Legaux’s 7.6 ypa and Kay doesn’t run as well. If Kay were a better quarterback then he’d have won the job at some point during his 4 year career and talk of a change probably isn’t doing much for Legaux’s confidence.

The fair line on this game is actually 8 points and Temple applies to a 64-21-2 ATS contrary situation that plays on home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 3 games against a road favorite off 2 or more spread wins. I’d consider Temple a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

Average Team Stats for 2012

		Rushing Stats				Passing Stats							Total
	Pts	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Int	Yds	Ypp	Sack	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
Cincinnati-Offense	34.3	39	233	5.9	0.88	15	30	1.13	221	7.2	0.9	7.2	454	6.5
Cincinnati-Defense	19.9	30	151	4.9	1.00	22	41	1.00	241	5.8	2.8	5.8	392	5.4
League Average	27.2	35	178	4.9	0.82	19	33	0.92	211	6.3	2.0	6.3	390	5.6
Temple-Offense	22.4	39	200	5.1	1.38	10	22	0.38	108	4.8	2.1	4.8	308	5.0
Temple-Defense	29.9	36	182	5.1	1.13	18	32	0.50	240	7.4	2.5	7.4	422	6.2

Ypp = Yards per pass attempt
Yppp = Yards per pass play (attempts + sacks)
Yppl = Yards per play (rushes + passes + sacks)

Cincinnati: SU: 6-2-0, ATS: 7-1-0

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/06/12 Pittsburgh	34-10	-4.0 W	31/42	271/179	8.7/4.3	0/1	14/24	28/37	193/236	0/1	1/6	6.7/5.5	464/415	7.7/4.9
09/15/12 Delaware State	23-7	0.0 W	49/25	275/126	5.6/5.0	4/1	20/18	27/36	192/138	2/1	2/2	6.6/3.6	467/264	6.0/4.2
09/29/12 @ Virginia Tech	27-24	+6.5 W	32/34	111/169	3.5/5.0	1/1	20/17	43/30	384/233	1/2	1/1	8.7/7.5	495/402	6.5/6.2
10/06/12 Miami Ohio	52-14	-19.5 W	50/19	272/79	5.4/4.2	0/1	13/27	23/53	157/300	0/3	0/3	6.8/5.4	429/379	5.9/5.1
10/13/12 Fordham	49-17	0.0 W	33/29	217/86	6.6/3.0	0/1	15/31	24/42	255/230	0/0	1/3	10.2/5.1	472/316	8.1/4.3
10/20/12 @ Toledo	23-29	-6.5 L	35/42	251/249	7.2/5.9	0/1	15/13	37/24	227/107	2/0	0/3	6.1/4.0	478/356	6.6/5.2
10/26/12 @ Louisville	31-34	+3.5 W	41/37	200/122	4.9/3.3	0/0	13/24	28/41	153/402	3/1	1/3	5.3/9.1	353/524	5.0/6.5
11/03/12 Syracuse	35-24	-4.0 W	52/41	270/199	5.2/4.9	2/2	16/23	27/47	206/280	1/0	1/1	7.4/5.8	476/479	6.0/5.4

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Cincinnati. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Cincinnati/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

Temple: SU: 3-5-0, ATS: 3-5-0

GAME LOGS 2012			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
08/31/12 Villanova	41-10	0.0 W	47/43	301/250	6.4/5.8	0/1	5/11	11/24	61/119	0/1	0/4	5.5/4.3	362/369	6.2/5.2
09/08/12 Maryland	27-36	-10.0 L	37/45	121/181	3.3/4.0	2/4	7/11	18/21	153/159	1/0	3/4	7.3/6.4	274/340	4.7/4.9
09/22/12 @ Penn St.	13-24	+7.0 L	28/40	133/175	4.8/4.4	0/0	13/24	26/36	104/318	0/1	3/0	3.6/8.8	237/493	4.2/6.5
10/06/12 South Florida	37-28	+3.5 W	47/44	254/180	5.4/4.1	0/2	16/18	20/31	159/204	0/1	1/2	7.6/6.2	413/384	6.1/5.0
10/13/12 @ Connecticut	17-14	+5.5 W	49/40	223/112	4.6/2.8	1/1	13/22	26/39	111/271	1/0	4/6	3.7/6.0	334/383	4.2/4.5
10/20/12 Rutgers	10-35	+5.5 L	42/29	130/147	3.1/5.1	2/1	8/17	17/27	61/225	1/1	1/1	3.4/8.0	191/372	3.2/6.5
10/27/12 @ Pittsburgh	17-47	+6.5 L	40/36	143/217	3.6/6.0	2/0	18/20	28/28	181/311	0/0	3/1	5.8/10.7	324/528	4.6/8.1
11/03/12 @ Louisville	17-45	+16.0 L	40/31	292/196	7.3/6.3	4/0	6/22	16/33	36/314	0/0	2/2	2.0/9.0	328/510	5.7/7.7

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Temple. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Temple/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

I try to post this sports betting advice on my site every Friday around 10 am Pacific Time. Visit www.drbobsports.com for more!