Football Analysis: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets!

Here is some free football analysis for the Bills and Jets game this Sunday.  Typically I post my free sports betting advice on Fridays after 10pm Pacific time.  

Both of these teams were winless in the preseason but both are expected to compete for the playoffs. The Jets are coming off a down season in which their offense went from bad to really bad (0.7 yppl worse than average) and the defense went from great to just good (0.5 yppl better than average). The Jets should rebound on offense and I expect the defense to be a bit better too, so they should find themselves in the running for a Wild Card spot.

The Bills were about the same as New York last season, except they were good on offense (0.2 yppl better than average) and bad on defense (0.4 yppl worse than average). The Bills’ offense should be at least as good and their defense should be better with the additions of defensive ends Mark Anderson (10 sacks last season) and Mario Williams, who is one of the NFL’s best defensive ends. Williams is a great pass rusher that is also very good defending the run and he’ll help shore up a poor run defense while the pass rush should be very good. Buffalo should be a bit better than average defensively this season and they’re a legitimate playoff contender if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick cuts down on his interceptions (he threw 23 picks last season).

The line on this game looks fair, but teams what won 1 or fewer preseason games are just 17-36-1 ATS in week 1 as a favorite, so I’ll lean with the Bills plus the points.

Buffalo Bills: SU: 6-10-0, ATS: 6-9-1

GAME LOGS 2011				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/11/11 @ Chiefs	41-7	+6.0 W	40.0 O	38/18	164/108	4.3/6.0	0/2	17/22	26/36	201/105	1/1	1/2	7.4/2.8	365/213	5.6/3.8
09/18/11 Raiders	38-35	-3.5 L	43.0 O	25/30	217/131	8.7/4.4	0/1	28/23	45/33	264/323	1/1	0/0	5.9/9.8	481/454	6.9/7.2
09/25/11 Patriots	34-31	+7.5 W	53.5 O	19/26	80/109	4.2/4.2	0/0	27/30	40/45	369/386	2/4	0/0	9.2/8.6	449/495	7.6/7.0
10/02/11 @ Bengals	20-23	-3.0 L	43.5 U	21/32	83/171	4.0/5.3	0/0	20/18	34/36	190/287	0/2	1/2	5.4/7.6	273/458	4.9/6.5
10/09/11 Eagles	31-24	+2.5 W	49.5 O	33/19	146/174	4.4/9.2	0/1	21/26	27/39	188/315	1/4	1/1	6.7/7.9	334/489	5.5/8.3
10/16/11 @ Giants	24-27	+3.0 T	50.0 O	23/30	155/123	6.7/4.1	0/0	21/21	30/32	219/292	2/0	3/0	6.6/9.1	374/415	6.7/6.7
10/30/11 Redskins	23-0	-6.0 W	45.5 U	32/11	139/26	4.3/2.4	1/0	21/20	26/33	252/152	1/2	2/10	9.0/3.5	391/178	6.5/3.3
11/06/11 Jets	11-27	-2.0 L	44.0 U	22/39	96/126	4.4/3.2	1/1	15/20	31/28	191/222	2/1	0/1	6.2/7.7	287/348	5.4/5.1
11/13/11 @ Cowboys	7-44	+5.0 L	48.0 O	17/32	135/165	7.9/5.2	1/0	20/23	31/26	136/270	3/0	1/0	4.3/10.4	271/435	5.5/7.5
11/20/11 @ Dolphins	8-35	+3.0 L	43.0 T	19/35	41/95	2.2/2.7	0/0	21/14	42/20	206/147	2/0	2/1	4.7/7.0	247/242	3.9/4.3
11/27/11 @ Jets	24-28	+9.5 W	41.5 O	28/23	86/138	3.1/6.0	0/1	26/17	39/35	250/180	0/1	3/0	6.0/5.1	336/318	4.8/5.5
12/04/11 Titans	17-23	-2.0 L	43.0 U	22/30	98/188	4.5/6.3	2/0	29/16	45/25	282/130	0/0	1/1	6.1/5.0	380/318	5.6/5.7
12/11/11 @ Chargers	10-37	+7.0 L	47.5 U	19/29	97/142	5.1/4.9	0/1	15/24	37/32	185/216	3/0	1/2	4.9/6.4	282/358	4.9/5.7
12/18/11 Dolphins	23-30	-1.5 L	41.0 O	19/38	113/254	5.9/6.7	0/3	31/10	47/20	293/194	3/0	3/2	5.9/8.8	406/448	5.9/7.5
12/24/11 Broncos	40-14	+3.0 W	43.0 O	27/34	161/134	6.0/3.9	0/0	15/13	27/30	191/160	0/4	1/3	6.8/4.8	352/294	6.4/4.4
01/01/12 @ Patriots	21-49	+10.5 L	50.0 O	19/26	100/141	5.3/5.4	0/0	29/24	46/36	296/342	4/1	2/4	6.2/8.6	396/483	5.9/7.3

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Bills. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Bills/Opponent.

New York Jets: SU: 8-8-0, ATS: 7-9-0

GAME LOGS 2011				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/11/11 Cowboys	27-24	-5.0 L	40.5 O	16/25	45/65	2.8/2.6	1/2	26/23	44/36	315/336	1/1	4/4	6.6/8.4	360/401	5.6/6.2
09/18/11 Jaguars	32-3	-8.5 W	39.5 U	32/27	101/112	3.2/4.1	0/0	17/11	24/25	182/91	2/4	1/2	7.3/3.4	283/203	5.0/3.8
09/25/11 @ Raiders	24-34	-3.5 L	41.0 O	25/31	100/235	4.0/7.6	1/0	27/18	43/26	339/149	1/0	4/1	7.2/5.5	439/384	6.1/6.6
10/02/11 @ Ravens	17-34	+3.0 L	42.0 O	19/37	38/115	2.0/3.1	3/2	11/10	35/31	112/155	1/1	2/2	3.0/4.7	150/270	2.7/3.9
10/09/11 @ Patriots	21-30	+8.5 L	48.5 O	25/35	97/152	3.9/4.3	0/0	16/24	25/33	158/294	0/1	2/4	5.9/7.9	255/446	4.9/6.2
10/17/11 Dolphins	24-6	-7.0 W	42.5 U	29/25	104/118	3.6/4.7	1/1	14/16	25/34	192/190	0/2	2/4	7.1/5.0	296/308	5.3/4.9
10/23/11 Chargers	27-21	+2.0 W	43.5 O	30/25	163/96	5.4/3.8	1/0	18/16	32/32	156/172	1/2	2/1	4.6/5.2	319/268	5.0/4.6
11/06/11 @ Bills	27-11	+2.0 W	44.0 U	39/22	126/96	3.2/4.4	1/1	20/15	28/31	222/191	1/2	1/0	7.7/6.2	348/287	5.1/5.4
11/13/11 Patriots	16-37	-1.5 L	47.5 O	24/27	111/61	4.6/2.3	1/0	20/26	39/39	268/329	2/0	5/0	6.1/8.4	379/390	5.6/5.9
11/17/11 @ Broncos	13-17	-6.0 L	40.0 U	28/34	83/125	3.0/3.7	1/1	24/9	39/21	235/104	1/0	3/1	5.6/4.7	318/229	4.5/4.1
11/27/11 Bills	28-24	-9.5 L	41.5 O	23/28	138/86	6.0/3.1	1/0	17/26	35/39	180/250	1/0	0/3	5.1/6.0	318/336	5.5/4.8
12/04/11 @ Redskins	34-19	-3.0 W	38.5 O	28/23	103/100	3.7/4.3	1/2	19/19	32/46	165/204	0/1	0/2	5.2/4.3	268/304	4.5/4.3
12/11/11 Chiefs	37-10	-10.5 W	36.5 O	42/21	159/65	3.8/3.1	1/0	13/16	21/32	155/156	0/1	3/5	6.5/4.2	314/221	4.8/3.8
12/18/11 @ Eagles	19-45	+2.5 L	44.0 O	27/31	94/162	3.5/5.2	2/3	16/15	29/20	147/260	2/1	4/3	4.5/11.3	241/422	4.0/7.8
12/24/11 Giants	14-29	-3.0 L	47.0 U	25/25	105/116	4.2/4.6	1/0	30/9	59/27	226/217	2/1	5/2	3.5/7.5	331/333	3.7/6.2
01/01/12 @ Dolphins	17-19	+2.5 W	41.0 U	27/24	129/84	4.8/3.5	0/0	22/22	33/32	245/128	3/2	2/1	7.0/3.9	374/212	6.0/3.7

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Jets. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Jets/Opponent.

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