Here's some free football analysis for this Thursday's Southeastern Conference match up- the South Carolina Gamecocks versus the Vanderbilt Commodores!
South Carolina (-7) 25 VANDERBILT 21
I don’t think South Carolina is worthy of their lofty ranking (9th) and Vanderbilt appears to be a bit underrated with an emerging offense and a solid defense. South Carolina certainly has the defense of a top-10 team, with imposing DE Jadeveon Clowney being unleashed on opponents this season after recording 8 sacks and earning 2nd Team All SEC honors as a freshman despite not being a starter. Clowney’s pass rushing skills will help out a rebuilding Gamecocks’ secondary that won’t be as good as last season’s unit but will still be tough to throw against (South Carolina allowed just 4.1 yards per pass play last season). Overall, the Gamecocks will be hard pressed to duplicate last year’s impressive defensive numbers (4.2 yards per play allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team) but they’ll still be among the best in the nation defensively.
The big question I have regarding the Gamecocks is an offense that has never averaged 30 points or more (against FBS competition) in any of Steve Spurrier’s 7 years as head coach (29.2 ppg last year). A lot is being made of RB Marcus Lattimore returning from injury to lead the offense but Lattimore is nothing special, as evidenced by his mediocre 4.9 career ypr average (4.9 yards per rushing play is the national average) and his inability to dominate SEC defenses (just 4.67 ypr in SEC games). South Carolina did have a better than average rushing attack the last two seasons after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses, but last year the Gamecocks averaged a modest 5.5 yards per play against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. That’s not very good for a team that is expected to be among the best teams in the nation. Quarterback Connor Shaw averaged just 5.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB), but he did get better as the season progressed last year and I expect him to be a solid, but unspectacular, quarterback this season. The South Carolina pass attack has been only 0.6 yards per pass play better than average (after adjusting for opposing defenses) in Spurrier’s 7 seasons as head coach and I rate Shaw at that same level heading into this season.
Overall, the South Carolina attack should be better than last season if Shaw improves as expected but Lattimore is not the superstar statistically that he is hyped up to be and the Gamecocks’ offense should go from average to only a bit better than average this season – which is not good enough for them to contend in the SEC unless their defense is as dominating as it was last season (not likely with a rebuilt secondary). South Carolina wasn’t as good as their 11-2 record last season (they were a lucky 4-1 in close games) and their record this season won’t be as good.
While South Carolina appears to be overrated the Commodores may be a bit underrated heading into this season. Vandy sported a solid defense last year, allowing just 22.3 points per game and 5.0 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense), and ‘Dores went from horrible offensively to better than average when Jordan Rodgers took over at quarterback midway through the season. Larry Smith was horrendous behind center as the starter the first 6 games of the season, averaging a pathetic 2.8 yards per pass play against FBS competition (and only 4.6 yppp against lowly Elon College). Rodgers was a better than average passer (6.2 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB) and the Commodores have a great back in Zac Stacy, who ran for 1193 yards at 5.9 ypr last season. Vanderbilt had a better than average offense after Rodgers took over at quarterback and this year they return their top 5 receivers while Stacy is reunited with running mate Warren Norman, who ran for 1242 yards at 5.6 ypr in in his first two seasons before red-shirting last season. Vanderbilt actually has two running backs that are better than Lattimore and Rodgers should be even better after an off-season working to improve his accuracy.
Vanderbilt averaged 31 points per game (27.0 ppg against 4 SEC teams) in 7 games with Rodgers as the starting quarterback (South Carolina averaged 25.7 ppg against SEC teams last season) and they were 5-2 ATS in those games. I still think the Commodores are underrated and South Carolina shouldn’t be favored by more than 3 points in this game. However, the Gamecocks do apply to a solid 71-25-3 ATS game 1 angle that will keep me from making Vandy a Best Bet or Strong Opinion in this game – although I’ll still lean with the home dog here.
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