Tough Year For NFL Handicappers

Well it's been a tough year for my professional football analysis this year and it seems to me that I'm dealing with a big case of our familiar friend variance! For those who don't know, variance refers to the random up and down streaks that every bettor faces in their lives.

In the NFL, variance happens mostly because of turnovers, and no sports betting service in the world can predict those! It all boils down to bad luck. I still haven’t had any lucky wins in this season and I’m an unlucky 3-6 on Best Bets decided by less than 7 points (with one of those wins being the Dallas at New England game that was really not a close win since the Pats were down by 3 points before scoring late to win straight up).

That said, I am really just 13-14-1 on my NFL Best Bets (27-30-2 on Stars) and 21-6 on my Strong Opinions, which is still a winning record when combined. (34-20-1) This means my sports investing is paying off and obviously working well overall- which is a good sign going forward.

While there has been a ton of variance and I should be up much further than I am, in reality I’ve had a good grasp on the NFL overall this season given that I’m actually 101-63-5 ATS picking every NFL side (adding in my Free Analysis picks which are 72-47-5 ATS)

For the rest of the season, I'm just gonna continue what I'm doing, but focus mostly on which games to make my "Best Bets". Probably I'll take a slightly more conservative approach on this.