Free Analysis of New England vs. Washington

This may surprise some in the football handicapping industry, but New England’s total yards per game margin of +11.6 yards isn’t much better than Washington’s -8.5 yards per game margin and Washington has improved offensively in recent weeks with Roy Helu as the main running back and with WR Santana Moss back from injury. Helu’s 4.7 ypr average is significantly better than the combined average of Tim Hightower and Ryan Torain (3.7 ypr combined) and the good rushing attack has made it easier for the Redskins to score when they get close to goal line, which has been a problem most of the season.

Washington has averaged 22 points the last 3 games after averaging just 15 points the first 9 games and part of that is also due to Moss and quarterback Rex Grossman returning to the lineup. Unfortunately, the Redskins will be without star TE Fred Davis, who was suspended for the final 4 games. Davis led the team in receptions and averaged a very good 9.0 yards per pass thrown to him, which is easily the best on the team. Backup TE Logan Paulsen has averaged 8.6 ypa but that’s only on 11 passes thrown to him and I doubt he’ll be able to maintain that average. The sports analysis I've done on the Redskins says that if Davis’ attempts are spread out amongst the current receivers then Washington’s pass rating would drop by 0.44 yards per pass play, which is worth about 1 ½ points. The Redskins’ attack is still better than their season rating of -0.4 yards per play even without Davis, as having Moss back helps the pass attack some (it was horrible when he was out) and having Helu as the starting running back is significant. Washington is actually just 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively with their current lineup and the Redskins’ defense is 0.4 yppl better than average and has allowed just 4.6 yppl their last 4 games.

I took Washington as a Best Bet last week and the Redskins out-gained the Jets 304 yards at 4.3 yppl to 268 yards at 4.5 yppl and led the game with 5 minutes left before turnovers killed their chances. I think the Skins can compete in this game against an overrated Patriots team with a horrible defense that has been even worse lately with injuries to the secondary. Patriots’ CB Kyle Arrington should return this week but the Pats have really struggled without S Patrick Chung, who is listed as questionable. My math model actually projects Washington to out-gain the Patriots in this game but turnovers are an issue with Rex Grossman at quarterback (he’s projected to throw 0.9 more interceptions than Tom Brady is, which is 3.2 points).

Even with that being the case, my main math model favors the Patriots by only 2 points. That model assumes teams score at efficiencies based on their overall level of play but New England has out-scored their statistics by 4.1 points per game this season. The Patriots have actually out-played their stats by 2.8 points with Brady at quarterback over the years and the would give me a prediction of New England by 5 points. My adjusted point differential model has the Pats by 6 ½ points, so the line is too high regardless of how you look at it so with my sports investing capitol, I’ll take Washington plus the points.