Free Football Analysis: Pitt vs. Virginia Tech

Here's some free college football analysis the the Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech game this Saturday.  I typically post my free analysis on Fridays after 10:00am and you can get my Best Bets packages for football on Thursdays. (although I'll occasionally release them earlier in the week if I think the line will move on a certain game before then) Enjoy!

#13 Virginia Tech (-10.0) 28 PITTSBURGH 14

Over/Under Total: 45.0

09:00 AM Pacific Time, Saturday, 15-Sep-2012

This isn’t what Pitt fans envisioned when former Wisconsin offensive coordinator Paul Chryst was brought in to be the head coach. The Panthers are 0-2 with a 14 point home loss to Youngstown State and a 24 point drubbing at Cincinnati and they’ve been out-played 5.7 yards per play to 6.8 yppl in those games. The offense hasn’t been bad but the bad defense is a surprise given the history of solid stop units that Pitt has had over the years. Particularly alarming is the 6.7 yards per rushing play that the Panthers are allowing, although a lot of that is due to big plays that have skewed the stats a bit. However, they gave up 5.1 yprp to Youngstown, so there is certainly something not right about the defensive line. Virginia Tech has struggled running the ball, as they averaged just 4.3 yprp against Georgia Tech and the 5.6 yprp they averaged against Austin Peay last week isn’t impressive considering how bad Austin Peay is against the run (they’d allow 5.7 yprp on the road to an average FBS team).

I suspect that the Hokies will have pretty good success running the ball in this game and their very strong defense should limit the Pitt attack. My ratings actually favor Virginia Tech by 10 points, so there isn’t line value here, but Pitt applies to a negative 21-60 ATS statistical indicator that is based on their bad run defense and I’ll lean with Virginia Tech based on that.

Virginia Tech: SU: 11-3-0, ATS: 4-9-1

GAME LOGS 2011			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/03/11 Appalachian State	66-13	0.0 W	41/36	265/123	6.5/3.4	0/1	15/9	28/26	259/170	0/3	1/1	8.9/6.3	524/293	7.5/4.7
09/10/11 @ East Carolina	17-10	-17.0 L	47/16	245/28	5.2/1.8	1/0	8/20	20/38	91/84	1/1	0/5	4.6/2.0	336/112	5.0/1.9
09/17/11 Arkansas St.	26-7	-24.0 L	38/31	143/86	3.8/2.8	0/0	21/16	33/36	286/183	2/2	2/3	8.2/4.7	429/269	5.9/3.8
09/24/11 @ Marshall	30-10	-20.5 L	41/24	215/31	5.2/1.3	1/1	22/17	33/33	229/220	1/1	0/5	6.9/5.8	444/251	6.0/4.0
10/01/11 Clemson	3-23	-7.0 L	39/35	165/128	4.2/3.7	1/0	15/13	27/32	94/195	1/1	4/1	3.0/5.9	259/323	3.7/4.8
10/08/11 Miami Fla	38-35	-7.5 L	38/38	182/252	4.8/6.6	1/0	23/14	25/22	300/267	0/0	1/3	11.5/10.7	482/519	7.5/8.2
10/15/11 @ Wake Forest	38-17	-6.5 W	40/31	207/94	5.2/3.0	0/0	17/20	32/36	266/226	0/1	1/4	8.1/5.7	473/320	6.5/4.5
10/22/11 Boston College	30-14	-20.5 L	39/29	215/104	5.5/3.6	0/1	22/13	36/30	268/168	0/1	0/4	7.4/4.9	483/272	6.4/4.3
10/29/11 @ Duke	14-10	-15.0 L	40/27	252/115	6.3/4.3	0/1	17/19	28/40	183/216	2/3	1/1	6.3/5.3	435/331	6.3/4.9
11/10/11 @ Georgia Tech	37-26	-1.0 W	50/49	271/279	5.4/5.7	1/0	7/5	13/10	207/61	0/0	1/5	14.8/4.1	478/340	7.5/5.3
11/17/11 North Carolina	24-21	-10.0 L	39/34	162/141	4.2/4.1	1/1	19/14	32/27	178/217	0/0	2/1	5.2/7.8	340/358	4.7/5.8
11/26/11 @ Virginia	38-0	-4.0 W	43/26	188/61	4.4/2.3	0/2	16/16	25/30	224/180	0/2	1/4	8.6/5.3	412/241	6.0/4.0
12/03/11 @ Clemson	10-38	-7.0 L	29/43	78/226	2.7/5.3	1/0	22/20	44/30	252/234	2/0	2/1	5.5/7.5	330/460	4.4/6.2

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Virginia Tech. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Virginia Tech/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

Pittsburgh: SU: 6-7-0, ATS: 8-5-0

GAME LOGS 2011			RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/03/11 Buffalo	35-16	-30.5 L	38/44	238/136	6.3/3.1	1/0	16/32	28/49	167/267	0/1	2/2	5.6/5.2	405/403	6.0/4.2
09/10/11 Maine	35-29	0.0 W	47/25	169/60	3.6/2.4	0/0	26/27	42/46	214/311	2/0	7/3	4.4/6.3	383/371	4.0/5.0
09/17/11 @ Iowa	27-31	+3.0 L	36/32	155/110	4.3/3.4	1/0	24/31	34/48	269/371	2/1	3/4	7.3/7.1	424/481	5.8/5.7
09/24/11 Notre Dame	12-15	+7.0 W	37/31	140/193	3.8/6.2	0/1	22/24	32/41	129/207	0/1	6/2	3.4/4.8	269/400	3.6/5.4
09/29/11 South Florida	44-17	+3.0 W	57/38	337/220	5.9/5.8	1/2	22/18	33/36	200/205	0/0	3/2	5.6/5.4	537/425	5.8/5.6
10/08/11 @ Rutgers	10-34	-7.0 L	34/37	192/113	5.6/3.1	0/1	16/11	33/24	81/166	4/0	6/1	2.1/6.6	273/279	3.7/4.5
10/15/11 Utah	14-26	-6.5 L	31/48	109/183	3.5/3.8	1/0	9/14	30/23	11/86	2/0	6/7	0.3/2.9	120/269	1.8/3.4
10/26/11 Connecticut	35-20	-10.0 W	28/37	127/154	4.5/4.2	0/0	30/18	43/34	402/162	0/0	3/6	8.7/4.1	529/316	7.1/4.1
11/05/11 Cincinnati	23-26	+3.5 W	37/36	205/170	5.5/4.7	1/0	24/19	38/32	192/198	1/2	3/2	4.7/5.8	397/368	5.1/5.3
11/12/11 @ Louisville	21-14	+2.5 W	45/29	223/129	5.0/4.4	2/1	16/18	23/26	173/151	0/1	3/3	6.7/5.2	396/280	5.6/4.8
11/25/11 @ West Virginia	20-21	+6.5 W	58/30	210/137	3.6/4.6	0/3	12/22	23/31	86/220	1/0	10/4	2.6/6.3	296/357	3.3/5.5
12/03/11 Syracuse	33-20	-10.0 W	35/35	97/135	2.8/3.9	0/4	25/23	35/32	236/210	1/2	4/3	6.1/6.0	333/345	4.5/4.9

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Pittsburgh. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Pittsburgh/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included.

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Football Analysis: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets!

Here is some free football analysis for the Bills and Jets game this Sunday.  Typically I post my free sports betting advice on Fridays after 10pm Pacific time.  

Both of these teams were winless in the preseason but both are expected to compete for the playoffs. The Jets are coming off a down season in which their offense went from bad to really bad (0.7 yppl worse than average) and the defense went from great to just good (0.5 yppl better than average). The Jets should rebound on offense and I expect the defense to be a bit better too, so they should find themselves in the running for a Wild Card spot.

The Bills were about the same as New York last season, except they were good on offense (0.2 yppl better than average) and bad on defense (0.4 yppl worse than average). The Bills’ offense should be at least as good and their defense should be better with the additions of defensive ends Mark Anderson (10 sacks last season) and Mario Williams, who is one of the NFL’s best defensive ends. Williams is a great pass rusher that is also very good defending the run and he’ll help shore up a poor run defense while the pass rush should be very good. Buffalo should be a bit better than average defensively this season and they’re a legitimate playoff contender if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick cuts down on his interceptions (he threw 23 picks last season).

The line on this game looks fair, but teams what won 1 or fewer preseason games are just 17-36-1 ATS in week 1 as a favorite, so I’ll lean with the Bills plus the points.

Buffalo Bills: SU: 6-10-0, ATS: 6-9-1

GAME LOGS 2011				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/11/11 @ Chiefs	41-7	+6.0 W	40.0 O	38/18	164/108	4.3/6.0	0/2	17/22	26/36	201/105	1/1	1/2	7.4/2.8	365/213	5.6/3.8
09/18/11 Raiders	38-35	-3.5 L	43.0 O	25/30	217/131	8.7/4.4	0/1	28/23	45/33	264/323	1/1	0/0	5.9/9.8	481/454	6.9/7.2
09/25/11 Patriots	34-31	+7.5 W	53.5 O	19/26	80/109	4.2/4.2	0/0	27/30	40/45	369/386	2/4	0/0	9.2/8.6	449/495	7.6/7.0
10/02/11 @ Bengals	20-23	-3.0 L	43.5 U	21/32	83/171	4.0/5.3	0/0	20/18	34/36	190/287	0/2	1/2	5.4/7.6	273/458	4.9/6.5
10/09/11 Eagles	31-24	+2.5 W	49.5 O	33/19	146/174	4.4/9.2	0/1	21/26	27/39	188/315	1/4	1/1	6.7/7.9	334/489	5.5/8.3
10/16/11 @ Giants	24-27	+3.0 T	50.0 O	23/30	155/123	6.7/4.1	0/0	21/21	30/32	219/292	2/0	3/0	6.6/9.1	374/415	6.7/6.7
10/30/11 Redskins	23-0	-6.0 W	45.5 U	32/11	139/26	4.3/2.4	1/0	21/20	26/33	252/152	1/2	2/10	9.0/3.5	391/178	6.5/3.3
11/06/11 Jets	11-27	-2.0 L	44.0 U	22/39	96/126	4.4/3.2	1/1	15/20	31/28	191/222	2/1	0/1	6.2/7.7	287/348	5.4/5.1
11/13/11 @ Cowboys	7-44	+5.0 L	48.0 O	17/32	135/165	7.9/5.2	1/0	20/23	31/26	136/270	3/0	1/0	4.3/10.4	271/435	5.5/7.5
11/20/11 @ Dolphins	8-35	+3.0 L	43.0 T	19/35	41/95	2.2/2.7	0/0	21/14	42/20	206/147	2/0	2/1	4.7/7.0	247/242	3.9/4.3
11/27/11 @ Jets	24-28	+9.5 W	41.5 O	28/23	86/138	3.1/6.0	0/1	26/17	39/35	250/180	0/1	3/0	6.0/5.1	336/318	4.8/5.5
12/04/11 Titans	17-23	-2.0 L	43.0 U	22/30	98/188	4.5/6.3	2/0	29/16	45/25	282/130	0/0	1/1	6.1/5.0	380/318	5.6/5.7
12/11/11 @ Chargers	10-37	+7.0 L	47.5 U	19/29	97/142	5.1/4.9	0/1	15/24	37/32	185/216	3/0	1/2	4.9/6.4	282/358	4.9/5.7
12/18/11 Dolphins	23-30	-1.5 L	41.0 O	19/38	113/254	5.9/6.7	0/3	31/10	47/20	293/194	3/0	3/2	5.9/8.8	406/448	5.9/7.5
12/24/11 Broncos	40-14	+3.0 W	43.0 O	27/34	161/134	6.0/3.9	0/0	15/13	27/30	191/160	0/4	1/3	6.8/4.8	352/294	6.4/4.4
01/01/12 @ Patriots	21-49	+10.5 L	50.0 O	19/26	100/141	5.3/5.4	0/0	29/24	46/36	296/342	4/1	2/4	6.2/8.6	396/483	5.9/7.3

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Bills. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Bills/Opponent.

New York Jets: SU: 8-8-0, ATS: 7-9-0

GAME LOGS 2011				RUSHING				PASSING						TOTAL
Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Atts	Yds	Ypr	Fum	Comp	Att	Yds	Int	Sac	Yppp	Yds	Yppl
09/11/11 Cowboys	27-24	-5.0 L	40.5 O	16/25	45/65	2.8/2.6	1/2	26/23	44/36	315/336	1/1	4/4	6.6/8.4	360/401	5.6/6.2
09/18/11 Jaguars	32-3	-8.5 W	39.5 U	32/27	101/112	3.2/4.1	0/0	17/11	24/25	182/91	2/4	1/2	7.3/3.4	283/203	5.0/3.8
09/25/11 @ Raiders	24-34	-3.5 L	41.0 O	25/31	100/235	4.0/7.6	1/0	27/18	43/26	339/149	1/0	4/1	7.2/5.5	439/384	6.1/6.6
10/02/11 @ Ravens	17-34	+3.0 L	42.0 O	19/37	38/115	2.0/3.1	3/2	11/10	35/31	112/155	1/1	2/2	3.0/4.7	150/270	2.7/3.9
10/09/11 @ Patriots	21-30	+8.5 L	48.5 O	25/35	97/152	3.9/4.3	0/0	16/24	25/33	158/294	0/1	2/4	5.9/7.9	255/446	4.9/6.2
10/17/11 Dolphins	24-6	-7.0 W	42.5 U	29/25	104/118	3.6/4.7	1/1	14/16	25/34	192/190	0/2	2/4	7.1/5.0	296/308	5.3/4.9
10/23/11 Chargers	27-21	+2.0 W	43.5 O	30/25	163/96	5.4/3.8	1/0	18/16	32/32	156/172	1/2	2/1	4.6/5.2	319/268	5.0/4.6
11/06/11 @ Bills	27-11	+2.0 W	44.0 U	39/22	126/96	3.2/4.4	1/1	20/15	28/31	222/191	1/2	1/0	7.7/6.2	348/287	5.1/5.4
11/13/11 Patriots	16-37	-1.5 L	47.5 O	24/27	111/61	4.6/2.3	1/0	20/26	39/39	268/329	2/0	5/0	6.1/8.4	379/390	5.6/5.9
11/17/11 @ Broncos	13-17	-6.0 L	40.0 U	28/34	83/125	3.0/3.7	1/1	24/9	39/21	235/104	1/0	3/1	5.6/4.7	318/229	4.5/4.1
11/27/11 Bills	28-24	-9.5 L	41.5 O	23/28	138/86	6.0/3.1	1/0	17/26	35/39	180/250	1/0	0/3	5.1/6.0	318/336	5.5/4.8
12/04/11 @ Redskins	34-19	-3.0 W	38.5 O	28/23	103/100	3.7/4.3	1/2	19/19	32/46	165/204	0/1	0/2	5.2/4.3	268/304	4.5/4.3
12/11/11 Chiefs	37-10	-10.5 W	36.5 O	42/21	159/65	3.8/3.1	1/0	13/16	21/32	155/156	0/1	3/5	6.5/4.2	314/221	4.8/3.8
12/18/11 @ Eagles	19-45	+2.5 L	44.0 O	27/31	94/162	3.5/5.2	2/3	16/15	29/20	147/260	2/1	4/3	4.5/11.3	241/422	4.0/7.8
12/24/11 Giants	14-29	-3.0 L	47.0 U	25/25	105/116	4.2/4.6	1/0	30/9	59/27	226/217	2/1	5/2	3.5/7.5	331/333	3.7/6.2
01/01/12 @ Dolphins	17-19	+2.5 W	41.0 U	27/24	129/84	4.8/3.5	0/0	22/22	33/32	245/128	3/2	2/1	7.0/3.9	374/212	6.0/3.7

Notes:

1. Spreads shown relative to the Jets. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Jets/Opponent.

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