In my sports handicapping in the final week of the NFL season, I don’t have a 'Best Bet' but I do have a 'Strong Opinion' on the total and 'Strong Opinions' on 3 Super Bowl propositions. (Man prop bets are fun and there are some good ones this year!) Included in my analysis you also get my NFL math model prediction.
Championship Round Recap and Season Results
I lost my '2-Star Best Bet' on San Francisco, who actually played better than I thought from the line of scrimmage (5.8 yards per play to 4.2 yppl for the Giants), but it's hard to predict the Niners would be -2 in turnovers (both fumbles on punt returns) given that they were +32 in turnover margin heading into the game. In the AFC, my sports betting service opted for a lean on the Baltimore-New England Under and won! (I had no opinion on the side, hence the lean).
For the season I am just 18-20-1 on my 'NFL Best Bets' (40-43-2 on Stars) and very good 27-10 on my 'Strong Opinions'. With the close loss on the Niners I am now an unlucky 6-10 on Best Bets decided by less than 7 points (with one of those wins being the Dallas at New England game that was really not a close win since the Pats were down by 3 points before scoring late to win straight up and another being the Raiders +3 in week 15 when they gave up 2 late TD's to lose by 1 - that game was never in doubt spread wise - so I'm really 4-10 on toss-up games this season). It’s a shame that the games I’ve considered as possible Best Bets are 45-30-1 (that's the record of the 'Best Bets' and 'Strong Opinions' combined) while the 'Best Bets' are just 18-20-1, but my methods are obviously working well overall, which is a good sign for next season.
I’ve had a good grasp on football analysis for the NFL overall this season given that I’m actually 144-102-6 ATS picking every NFL side (with 14 no opinions), and it's pretty random that my Best Bets haven't won. I've never had a season in which my methods have worked so well and my analysis overall has been so good yet I've lost on my 'Best Bets'. However, I'm excited about the performance of my new math model and I'm looking forward to being profitable next season.
NFL Math Model 264-206-10
I made some adjustments to my NFL math model, which started in week 5, and the new model was pretty good this year. The sides with 5 or more point differentials were 1-0 in week 17 (Houston) and the math was 1-0 on games with 3 or more point differences from the line (2.8 or more, actually). For the season the games with differences of 3 points or more are now 46-32-1 ATS. The record of my NFL Math Model when the difference is 5 points or more (4.8 or more, actually) is now 264-206-10 (56%) since I started using my model in 2000. The math model forecasts for every game are included each week with my 'NFL Best Bets' package starting in week 5.
No comments:
Post a Comment