Dr. Bob Recaps His Football Handicapping This Season

SuperBowl Recap and Season Results
What a game! It turned out to be one of the tightest in my entire sports handicapping career. I didn't have a lean on the side, but my Strong Opinion on the Under was an easy winner in Super Bowl 45. My propositions were a mixed bag, as I won my Strong Opinion on Manning (+10 1/2) over Brady in passing yards (or Brady under 320 1/2 yards), I pushed my 2nd Half being higher scoring (a loss for some that had to lay 1/2 a point thanks to a missed 2 point conversion attempt) and I lost my 4th quarter being the highest scoring quarter at +175 odds.

For the season, my sports betting service did pretty well again. Although I was just 18-20-1 on my NFL Best Bets (40-43-2 on Stars), I did very good (28-10) on my Strong Opinions (and 1-1-1 on props). I was an unlucky 6-10 on Best Bets decided by less than 7 points (with one of those wins being the Dallas at New England game that was really not a close win since the Pats were down by 3 points before scoring late to win straight up and another being the Raiders +3 in week 15 when they gave up 2 late TD's to lose by 1 - that game was never in doubt spread wise - so I'm really 4-10 on toss-up games this season). It’s a shame that the games I’ve considered as possible Best Bets are 46-30-1 (that's the record of the Best Bets and Strong Opinions combined) while the Best Bets are just 18-20-1, but my methods obviously worked well overall, which is a good sign for next season.

I had a good grasp on my football analysis overall this season given that I’m actually 144-102-6 ATS picking every NFL side (with 15 no opinions), and it's pretty random that my Best Bets haven't won. I've never had a season in which my methods have worked so well and my analysis overall has been so good yet I've lost on my Best Bets. However, I'm excited about the performance of my new math model and I'm looking forward to being profitable next season.

NFL Math Model 264-206-10
I made some adjustments to my NFL math model, which started in week 5, and the new model was pretty good this year. The sides with 5 or more point differentials were 1-0 in week 17 (Houston) and the math was 1-0 on games with 3 or more point differences from the line (2.8 or more, actually). For the season the games with differences of 3 points or more are now 46-32-1 ATS. The record of my NFL Math Model when the difference is 5 points or more (4.8 or more, actually) is now 264-206-10 (56%) since I started using my model in 2000. The math model forecasts for every game are included each week with my NFL Best Bets package starting in week 5.