NFL Playoff Analysis Available on Friday after Noon Pacific.
It's playoff time, and I have some great insights and sports betting advice available at my website to close out the season! I have one NFL 3-Star Best Bet this week and I'll have that Best Bet and analysis of the other 3 games available after Noon Pacific.
Wild Card Recap and Season Results
Last week I came away in the black with my football handicapping. I didn't have any Best Bets in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, but I did have a Strong Opinion on Detroit +10 1/2 that lost and two leans on Houston -4 and Denver +8 1/2 that both won. Overall, it was a successful week.
For the season I am just 17-19-1 on my NFL Best Bets (37-41-2 on Stars) and very good 27-10 on my Strong Opinions. I finally got a lucky win in week 17 but and I’m still an unlucky 6-9 on Best Bets decided by less than 7 points (with one of those wins being the Dallas at New England game that was really not a close win since the Pats were down by 3 points before scoring late to win straight up and another being the Raiders +3 in week 15 when they gave up 2 late TD's to lose by 1 - that game was never in doubt spread wise - so I'm really 4-9 on toss-up games this season). It’s a shame that the games I’ve considered as possible Best Bets are 44-29-1 (that's the record of the Best Bets and Strong Opinions combined) while the Best Bets are just 17-19-1, but my methods are obviously working well overall, which is a good sign going forward.
I’ve had a good grasp on my NFL sports investing overall this season given that I’m actually 143-99-6 ATS picking every NFL side (my Free Analysis was 101-76-6 ATS), and it's pretty random that my Best Bets haven't won. I've never had a season in which my methods have worked so well and my analysis overall has been so good yet I've lost on my Best Bets.
NFL Math Model 264-206-10
I made some adjustments to my NFL math model, which started in week 5, and the new model was pretty good this year. The sides with 5 or more point differentials were 1-0 in week 17 (Houston) and the math was 1-0 on games with 3 or more point differences from the line (2.8 or more, actually). For the season the games with differences of 3 points or more are now 46-32-1 ATS. The record of my NFL Math Model when the difference is 5 points or more (4.8 or more, actually) is now 264-206-10 (56%) since I started using my model in 2000. The math model forecasts for every game are included each week with my NFL Best Bets package starting in week 5.
The football ship has sprung a leak and we have to stoop to praising a national championship in women's sailing.
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