I am 143-101-6 ATS with my sorts betting service this season picking every NFL side (with 13 no opinions) and 130-96-5 on all playoff sides the last 22 years (Best Bets, Strong Opinions and leans). I’ve won my only Playoff Best Bet so far (3-Stars on San Francisco last week) and this week I have a Best Bet on one of Sunday’s Championship games and an opinion on the other. You also get my NFL math model predictions.
Note: I’ve only posted the Best Bet on my site and I’ll post the analysis of the other game shortly – so make sure you’re logged in when you purchase so you can log back in later in the week to view the analysis of the other game.
Divisional Round Recap and Season Results
I only had one Best Bet in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and my 3-Star Best Bet on San Francisco +3 1/2 was a winner. That win was a little bit lucky given the +4 turnover but the 49ers did average 6.0 yards per play while the Saints averaged 5.9 yppl and they were a 3 1/2 point dog. My two leans on Denver and Green Bay both lost and the math model was 3-1 on sides and 3-1 on totals.
For the season I am just 18-19-1 on my NFL Best Bets (40-41-2 on Stars) and very good 27-10 on my Strong Opinions. I finally got a lucky win in week 17 but and I’m still an unlucky 6-9 on Best Bets decided by less than 7 points (with one of those wins being the Dallas at New England game that was really not a close win since the Pats were down by 3 points before scoring late to win straight up and another being the Raiders +3 in week 15 when they gave up 2 late TD's to lose by 1 - that game was never in doubt spread wise - so I'm really 4-9 on toss-up games this season). It’s a shame that the games I’ve considered as possible Best Bets are 45-29-1 (that's the record of the Best Bets and Strong Opinions combined) while the Best Bets are just 18-19-1, but my methods are obviously working well overall, which is a good sign going forward.
I’ve had a good grasp on my football analysis of the NFL overall this season given that I’m actually 144-101-6 ATS picking every NFL side (my Free Analysis was 101-76-6 ATS), and it's pretty random that my Best Bets haven't won. I've never had a season in which my methods have worked so well and my analysis overall has been so good, yet I've lost on my Best Bets.
NFL Math Model 264-206-10
I made some adjustments to the NFL math model in my sports investing, which started in week 5, and the new model was pretty good this year. The sides with 5 or more point differentials were 1-0 in week 17 (Houston) and the math was 1-0 on games with 3 or more point differences from the line (2.8 or more, actually). For the season the games with differences of 3 points or more are now 46-32-1 ATS. The record of my NFL Math Model when the difference is 5 points or more (4.8 or more, actually) is now 264-206-10 (56%) since I started using my model in 2000. The math model forecasts for every game are included each week with my NFL Best Bets package starting in week 5.
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