[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 3 and Season Recap

Week 3 Best Bets 3-1.  Week 4 Best Bets Available on Thursday

My week 3 Best Bets were 3-1 for +4.7 Stars. I started the week with a Thursday night 2-Star Best Bet win on Kansas City +3, who won at Philly 26-16. 

I was 2-1 on Sunday with an ugly 3-Star loss on the New York Giants and a pair of 3-Star wins on small favorites with Miami -2 1/2 coming back to beat Atlanta 27-23 and the Jets -2 1/2 winning 27-20 over Buffalo. 

The Miami Best Bet was added on Sunday morning and those that logged in when they purchased the Best Bets earlier in the week can log back in on Sunday to get the Sunday update. For the season I am now 5-3 on my Best Bets for +2.8 Stars. 

Check back on Thursday for my Week 4 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 2 and Season Recap

Mr. Clutch, EJ Manuel (#3) of the Bills

My week 2 Best Bets were just 2-2 for -1.9 Stars. The two wins were 3-Stars on Buffalo +3 and 2-Stars on Tampa Bay +3, which was added as a Best Bet on Sunday (and listed as a potential Best Bet on the Free Analysis page until Sunday). 

The two losses were 3-Stars on Philadelphia -7 at -120 odds and 3-Stars on the New York Giants +4 1/2. I passed week 1 so my season total is 2-2 for -1.9 Stars. 

It certainly wasn't the start I wanted but it also won't get in the way of what should be another profitable NFL season. I already see a few great plays for Week 3. Check our main website on Thursday for my Week 3 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.

NFL Free Analysis

As most of you know, Dr Bob has posted informative and profitable NFL analysis in his Free Analysis section for years. This season I will post Free Analysis on NFL games that are not part of my Best Bet package.

An Introduction by Mike O'Connor

Hey all, my name is Mike and I wanted to just introduce myself and give you all a little more background on my career and credentials.

I got my start by studying Dr. Bob’s methods with fellow handicapper, Scott Kellen, many years ago and spending countless hours reverse-engineering what I could of his systems and models. His methodology, which is scientific, appealed to me as finance major having studied financial pricing models and provided the foundation of my interest in predictive analytics and sports analysis as a vehicle for investing.

Remember that sports investing is a largely unregulated market driven at times by unsophisticated money. There are clear edges to be had and none in my opinion more so than in the NFL which is the most publicly bet sport. Incorporating Dr. Bob’s basic methodology of situational analysis, statistical modeling, and match-up analysis into my handicapping I was able to develop an initial profitable model. 

As time went on I developed novel approaches in the creation of systems and models with esoteric new stats that have been able to keep me ahead of the curve. I have an exclusive focus on the NFL and I am constantly searching for new and different ways of identifying small edges in team’s performances. I have conducted research on a variety of predictive subsets in the NFL that lie outside the norm and have identified systems that produce winners with high levels of statistical significance. I also stay on the cutting edge of performance evaluation by watching every game, making detailed notes about performance, tendencies, injuries and other information.

While my record and my analysis have been very good, I certainly don’t have all the answers. I continue to search and try to get better as I add to and edit my work every year. However, I can guarantee you that I will work hard, be honest and act with integrity, and give you a very good chance at being profitable in the NFL this year.

NFL Free Analysis

As most of you know, Dr Bob has posted informative and profitable NFL analysis in his Free Analysis section for years. This season I will post Free Analysis on NFL games that are not part of my Best Bet package.

I didn't have any Week 1 NFL Best Bets but I've had great success early in the season from week 2 through 6 ( 95-46-5 for 67.4% Winners) and I'm hoping to start strong again this season.  

Check back on Friday for my Week 2 Best Bets.

Welcome Mike O’Connor – New Resident NFL Handicapper

After experiencing much success in the NFL for most of my career my NFL results have not been up to par in recent years and have dragged down my overall Football profits (I still have the best long term record of any public handicapper in College Football). I have decided to drop the NFL to concentrate more of my time on my winning College Football analysis and my early season Basketball handicapping.

However this doesn’t mean my site won’t still feature NFL handicapping. Instead I’ve added an NFL only handicapper with a peerless record of success to pick up where I left off. Mike will offer weekly Best Bets and will also post NFL analysis on all other games in the Free Analysis section.

Mike O’Connor NFL Service

Mike O’Connor, formerly of Intellisports, is a situational and statistical handicapper who specializes in the NFL and has a record that has been independently documented. Since Mike started releasing plays publicly in 2005 his record is 286-199 for 59.0% winners and can be verified at www.nationalsportsmonitor.com (2006) and www.thesportsmonitor.com (2007-2012). To my knowledge there is no service that has outperformed Mike over the past 7 years in the NFL. Here is the yearly breakdown (including playoffs):

2006 40-22 (64.5%) documented by www.nationalsportsmonitor.com

2007 35-30 (53.8%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2008 46-29 (61.3%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2009 34-24 (58.6%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2010 54-40 (57.4%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2011 40-25 (61.5%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

2012 37-29 (56.1%) documented by www.thesportsmonitor.com

Note: The records above are Mike’s monitored records, which add up to 286-199 (59.0%). Monitors tend to give handicappers the best available line rather than the consensus line and Mike has personally tracked his record at 288-202-13 (58.8%) at an average price of -1.1314, which is higher than the standard -1.10 odds because Mike sometimes suggests buying 1/2 points around key numbers. Mike’s win percentage, adjusted for -1.10 odds would be 58.2%, which is still an incredible record of success.

Welcome to Dr. Bob’s Sports, Mike.

My Saturday opinion on the Under won. My Basketball Best Bets have won 12 of the last 16 weeks, which is what’s really important to me, and I’m 25-18-1 on my Free Best Bets. However, it’s been a strange losing season with the opinions, which are just 65-78-5 this season.
I was 49-38-1 on my Free Best Bets and 548-487-19 on my free opinions the previous 5 seasons.
Thursday NBA

San Antonio (+5 ½) over MIAMI
In my opinion, the only reason Miami needed 7 games to beat Indiana was due to the Pacers randomly high 3 point shooting percentage of 41.4% as opposed to the 33.3% that was expected of them against the heat defense. I don’t think there was anything wrong with Miami this week — the Pacers just shot the ball extraordinarily well.

Moving forward, I don’t believe the Heat are better than a healthy Spurs team. We cannot accurately gauge the Spurs’ future playoff performance against the Heat based on their regular season meetings because during the regular season the Spurs were plagued with injury and needed to rest their aging starters more often. San Antonio’s average game rating with Tony Parker and Tim Duncan playing is ½ a point better than Miami’s rating in games in which LeBron James played (nobody else on that team really made a difference in their performance). Miami does get a boost with LeBron James playing more minutes in the playoffs than he did in the regular season and my ratings have these teams even heading into this series based on playoff rotations of each team. Home court advantage in the playoffs is 4 ½ points and I have Miami by 4 ½ points in this game. However, using playoff games only would favor Miami by just 2 points and I get Heat by 3 points even if I exclude the Spurs’ first round series against the injury depleted Lakers (although I did adjust for that in my ratings).

The home teams in game 1 of the NBA Finals has covered 8 years in a row (14-8 ATS the last 22 years) but Miami applies to a 4-19 ATS game 1 situation that is 0-2 ATS in game 1 of the Finals. Some people are arguing that the extra time off that San Antonio has had since their last game could result in the Spurs being rusty but my database reveals no such evidence. I’ll lean with San Antonio at +5 or more and I’d consider the Spurs a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.

The total is a bit difficult to calculate for this game because the total (188 ½ points) appears to be too low, as I get 191 ½ points as my prediction, adjusted for playoff tempo. However, the first game of the finals has gone Under 8 of the last 9 games and is 15-7 under the last 22 years, so I have no opinion on the total.

The value favors San Antonio a bit in this series but Miami has been very good after a loss so I expect their level of play to rise if they find themselves down, which takes away some of the value favoring the Spurs. Thus, I have no opinion on the series.

You can check my site for free sports betting advice anytime to see when I post my stats.

Free Analysis: Miami over Indiana

Indiana has covered the spread in 3 of 4 games in this series but Miami has outscored the Pacers by 8 points overall despite 24 points of negative variance. Miami simply hasn’t shot the ball from 3-point range nearly as well as expected in this series. I realize that Indiana has the NBA’s best 3-point defense (allowing 33.0% to a schedule of teams that combine to average 36.1% from 3-point range on offense), but Miami’s 3-point shooting offense is actually slightly better than Indiana’s 3-point defense as the Heat have made 38.9% of their 3-point shots against teams that combine to allow 35.6% defensively. Based on those numbers Miami should be making 36.0% of their 3-points shots in this series but they’ve made only 30.9% (21 of 68). Indiana, meanwhile, has made 39.7% of their 3-point shots rather than the 33.3% that is expected based on their poor season to date offensive 3-point shooting numbers (34.2% against teams that allow 35.9%) and Miami’s good 3-point defense (34.6% allowed to teams that average 35.4%). Indiana is also making 77.0% from the line (better than their 74.8% season average) while Miami has made just 75.0% from the free throw stripe (75.5% for the season). Overall, the 3-point and free throw shooting variance in this series has been 24 points in favor of the Pacers, which makes Miami’s 8 point margin in scoring even more impressive. Without the variance the Heat would be outscoring Indiana by 8 points per game. Miami’s shooters aren’t likely to keep missing their 3-point shots (Ray Allen and Shane Battier, Miami’s main two 3-point shooters are a combined 11 for 46 from long range in this series) and Indiana isn’t likely to keep making 40% of their shots from beyond the arc. 

My ratings favor Miami by 8 points in this game based on season data and adjusted for playoff rotations (that favors Indiana by 0.5 points more than it favors Miami) and I also get 8 points using each team’s playoff games only (adjusted for George Hill missing one game for Indiana). The line in game 1 here in Miami was also 8 points and Miami has actually played better than expected in this series if you factor out the negative variance. There are a few technical situations that go both ways, but the stronger situations favor Miami and I like that more than 60% of the public is betting Indiana. I’ll lean with Miami at -8 or less and I’d consider the Heat a Strong Opinion at -7 or less. 

UNDER (185 ½) – Indiana at MIAMI
All 4 games in this series have gone over the total despite the number of possessions per game being below expectations. Game 4 was actually the slowest paced game of the series but these teams continue to be much more efficient offensively (points per possession) than expected. I still contend that the scoring efficiency of these teams in this series is not likely to continue, although using playoff games only for both teams would predict a slightly higher expected efficiency than using compensated statistics from the entire season. Using the average pace of this series with the expected scoring efficiencies based on each team’s playoff games only would yield a prediction of 181.7 total points. There have been only 4 playoff series since 1992 that have had the total go over in each of the first 4 games of the series and game 5 of those series have gone under 3 out of 4 times with the one game that went over totaling just 179 points (the total was 171). I’ll lean UNDER 184 points or higher.

You can check my site for free sports betting advice anytime to see when I post my stats.

Free Analysis: Chicago vs Orlando

My Thursday Opinion on New York lost. My Basketball Best Bets have won 9 consecutive weeks, which is what's really important to me, and I'm 25-18-1 on my Free Best Bets. However, it's been a strange losing season with the opinions, which are just 58-75-5 on my free opinions this season.

I was 49-38-1 on my Free Best Bets and 548-487-19 on my free opinions the previous 5 seasons.

Monday NBA Opinion
Chicago (-4.5) over ORLANDO

Rotation #501 – 4:05 pm Pacific
Chicago is still fighting for playoff positioning and the Bulls are usually at their best off a couple of losses (43-24-1 ATS). Chicago also applies to a very good 83-26-2 ATS road bounce-back situation that is based on those two losses. However, Chicago is also just 6-25 ATS this season when favored by more than 3 points and they’ve been bad in that spread range this season even after a loss or two. Orlando is only 14-25-1 ATS at home this year, which nearly balances out Chicago’s negative team trend. Orlando’s median home result is a 6 point loss and the Bulls are a better than average road team, which is evidence that they should be able to win by 5 points or more even with the lack of rest after playing in Miami yesterday. The key to this game may be the status of Taj Gibson, who has missed a lot of games recently but could return tonight. The Bulls have struggled without Gibson but it is reported that Gibson and Noah will both play tonight. I’d favor Chicago by 5 points with Gibson playing his normal minutes with his normal effectiveness (although that may not be the case in his first game back and trying to get used to a knee brace). I’ll lean with Chicago at -5 or less. 

Situations also apply in favor of Golden State and Utah but the line on the Warriors game appears to be over-adjusted for the Spurs resting players and the Jazz line is inflated - especially if Pekovic plays for Minnesota.