Tuesday, March 01
Basketball Best Bets +471.2 Stars (at -1.10 odds) Last 12 Seasons!
Best Bets 272-208-4 on a Star Basis This Season!
I will have multiple Best Bets for Tuesday - available after 3:05 pm Pacific.
Current Season Results
Best Bets 272-208-4 on a Star Basis
I passed on Sunday (and Monday) but I was 6-1 on my 7 Saturday Best Bets and had a second consecutive good week.
For the season I am 272-208-4 on a Star Basis (1-0 on 4-Stars, 40-24 on 3-Stars and 74-68-2 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +43.2 Stars at -1.10 odds (a new season high). The 2-Stars being around 50% so far is just random variance at work. In fact, the 2-Stars have been profitable over the years and were 118-87-3 last season.
This time of year, especially the Conference Tournaments, is historically a very good time of the year for me. In fact, last year I was only up +3.7 Stars of profit for the season at this point in the year and I got up to +50 Stars by the NCAA Tournament Championship game.
Basketball Subscriptions
4 Week Package Available for $345
You can save money from buying day to day with my Basketball season subscription. More importantly, you also have access to my Basketball release page with both packages, which allows you to get down before the lines move. The price is higher than normal at this time of year because there are a lot of 2 sessions days coming up with the conference tournaments and NCAA tournament. Click the link below for the updated season subscription price.
Available Best Bets Packages
Basketball Best Bets will be available for purchase on a daily basis for $15.
Basketball Best Bets +471.2 Stars Last 12 Seasons!
My Basketball Best Bets are 6167-5178-249 on a Star Basis the last 12 seasons, for a profit of +471.2 Stars at - 1.10 odds, and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 23 seasons.
Free Analysis
I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.
My Sunday opinions on West Virginia and U Mass split. I'm 7-4 on my free Best Bets and 72-70-1 on my free opinions this season.
I was 26-24-1 on my Free Best Bets and 323-290-12 on my free opinions the previous 3 seasons.
Free analysis posted after 3:05 pm Pacific.
Showing posts with label Sports betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sports betting. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Monday, February 14, 2011
Who is Dr. Bob and what does he know about sports betting?
I had no idea what a point spread was when I took the pool sheet home to study, but I was intrigued by the problem at hand and spent hours that night coming up with a formula that used each team's season-to-date statistics to predict the likely scoring margin of each game. I turned in my picks and went 12-2 against the spread, good enough for the $102 first place prize. I went 11-3 the very next week to finish 2nd and pocketed an additional $40. Needless to say, my interest in sports betting was certainly enhanced by the cash filling my usually empty front pocket.
I spent the rest of that football season researching and reading anything I could find on the subject of sports handicapping. Most of what I found was useless, but my thesis on how to properly look at the problem of picking winners against the spread began to take shape as I began to question the other approaches I was reading about.
My major at Cal was in statistics with an emphasis in economics and I quickly came to realize that betting on sports was very similar to playing the stock market. The point spread is simply a price that a trader (i.e. a gambler) is willing to pay to bet on each team. It became apparent that the price a gambler would pay to bet on a team was heavily dependent upon how well that team was playing of late and I hypothesized that there was probably an overreaction to recent events in sports betting just as there was with stock prices on Wall Street.
I also started to notice that most teams were inconsistent in their level of play from week to week and that harnessing these up and down patterns would be very helpful in my new endeavor. As luck would have it, I was taking a time series class that focused on spectrum (Fourier) analysis, which explores cyclical patterns of data. Spectrum analysis is sort of like linear regression but with sine and cosine waves and helps to uncover the frequencies at which a team's performance oscillates.
I later found out that I was among the first to use technical analysis in sports betting. Understanding the patterns of team performance, in conjunction with the betting patterns of gamblers, was a powerful tool. My results in the mid-80's using my more advanced methods resulted in winning 63% on the games I personally bet while paying my way through college..
Over my first few years wagering in college I also had some exposure to the sports service industry, which was mostly comprised of untrustworthy solicitors and false claims about ridiculous win rates that only fools would be gullible enough to believe. I thought to myself that if these lying promoters could have a business flipping coins and selling their "Locks" to gamblers, then there would certainly be a market for an honest guy that could actually win.
I started Dr. Bob Sports in 1987 and quickly found that being honest about my 60% win rates in an industry full of false claims of 70% to 80% winners wasn't getting me very far. I was fortunate to be asked by the Gold Sheet to write an article for one of their publications and that article led to a weekly column in the Las Vegas Sports News called "The Doctor Is In", which garnered plenty of positive attention among sharp sports bettors in Vegas. I also was asked to be a regular guest on a 2 hour weekly sports betting radio show that was broadcast nationally on the Sports Fan Radio Network (a precursor to ESPN radio and Fox radio).
The notoriety I received from the weekly column and radio appearances encouraged me to start a print publication called 'Dr. Bob Sports News' that was distributed around the country to newsstands. Dr. Bob Sports News was packed with analyses of upcoming games and useful charts and became a favorite among more intelligent sports gamblers who appreciated my unique approach. Getting my highly analytical articles and game write ups to the public enabled me to positively differentiate my service from all the scam services making false claims, and the publication earned me a loyal following that jump started my business
My publication ran successfully for 11 years until I launched my drbobsports.com web site in the late 90's. My goal with drbobsports.com was to have even more detailed analysis of every game available on my site, with most of it being free of charge. I figured the more people read my detailed analysis and insights into sports betting the more impressed they would be with my service. However, the bottom line is that picking more winners than losers is what has made me successful as I start my 23rd year in business.
These days, books have evolved to the point where it's tough to consistently win 60% plus anymore, but my analysis has evolved as the odds makers and public have grown more savvy and I'm still several steps ahead of the guys making the lines. In fact, I study my methods of analysis every summer, tweak my math models, and optimize the weighting of my handicapping factors (i.e. situational analysis, fundamental indicators, math models, etc) to maximize my likelihood of winning each season.
My most recent math model for college football, which debuted in 2004, has been incredibly successful and led to an article in the Wall Street Journal, appearances on CNBC, and a story about my service on ESPN's E:60 magazine show. That extra attention makes it a bit more challenging to stay ahead of the odds makers, who are now fully aware of me and my plays, but I will continue to adjust my models.
Their line-setting methods have caught up to about where I was in 2003, but I have several factors of analysis that I do not think that the odds makers have considered yet. Furthermore, the lines are heavily influenced by public opinion, which is frequently off-base, and that makes my job much easier.
My handicapping philosophy is now based more on my math models than on the technical analysis, because the math models have been so good, but I still use a combination of factors to come up with my Best Bets.
Please take some time to read the sports betting and money management articles that I've posted on the site and check out the Past Performance page for details on my 73% annual return over the last decade. I also hope you enjoy all the free analysis that I post on my site weekly during the football season (all games that are not part of my Best Bets package) and daily during basketball season.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Sports handicapping: Best bets subscription information
My monthly and season subscriptions give you access to my Best Bets (and Strong Opinions in football) at a discounted price and allow you to use my Best Bets release page – which releases each Best Bet simultaneously to everyone, one at a time, on a countdown.
While my success over the years has led to movement in the point spreads shortly after releasing my Best Bets, most of my clients that use my Best Bets release page have successfully gotten their plays in before the line moves on each Best Bet. Being able to get down before the lines move is a major benefit to purchasing one of my season packa ges rather than buying my weekly or daily packages, which are only available after all Best Bets are released to subscribers on the Best Bets release page.
Given the long history of success on my Best Bets (73% annual returns), the cost of my service is very affordable. In fact, if you’re going to be wagering on sports you probably can’t afford not to use my service since most amateurs, and most other professional handicappers, don’t even win 50% of their bets.
Make sure to read my Sports Betting as an Investment article for more information on how good of an investment Dr. Bob Sports has been and whether you can afford the cost of the service based on your bankroll.
While my success over the years has led to movement in the point spreads shortly after releasing my Best Bets, most of my clients that use my Best Bets release page have successfully gotten their plays in before the line moves on each Best Bet. Being able to get down before the lines move is a major benefit to purchasing one of my season packa ges rather than buying my weekly or daily packages, which are only available after all Best Bets are released to subscribers on the Best Bets release page.
Given the long history of success on my Best Bets (73% annual returns), the cost of my service is very affordable. In fact, if you’re going to be wagering on sports you probably can’t afford not to use my service since most amateurs, and most other professional handicappers, don’t even win 50% of their bets.
Make sure to read my Sports Betting as an Investment article for more information on how good of an investment Dr. Bob Sports has been and whether you can afford the cost of the service based on your bankroll.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Dr. Bob is Featured in an ESPN Article About The Perfect Handicapping Database
In the recent ESPN Magazine, there is a great article titled "Database of Dreams" by Chad Millman, that centers on the perfect handicapping database. Dr. Bob is featured in the article as one of only 9 people that own this database software. To read the full article, visit Dr. Bob's media page. It is #7 towards the bottom of the page.
Below is an excerpt of the article:
PARLAYING OFF
To make money you have to risk money. But we all don’t sweat equally. When a buddy goads you into putting a few bucks on the big game, where do you draw the line? We asked the Nation. What’s your limit for a friendly bet on a sporting event?
In many ways, handicapping today is a highly sophisticated science, steeped in PhD-level statistical analysis. In 2009, at the 14th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, presentations included Exploiting Inefficiencies it tediously entered by Stryker. And it worked. Suddenly the record for any situation a team had ever played in—at home off a loss against a team off a win; a team on the road as a favorite after two straight wins of 10 or more points— could be determined immediately. Says Stryker: “What had taken 23 hours now took 23 seconds.”
If pro sports gamblers win just over half of their bets, it’s a good year. Here’s why: Let’s say his bankroll is $10,000 and he wagers on 2,000 games in a year. If he bets 3% of his roll per game, that’s $330 (including the 10% commission). At 54%, the gambler will win 1,080 bets worth $324,000 and lose 920 worth $303,600. Gross profit: $20,400—or better than a 100% return on his $10,000 stake.
At the M Casino in Las Vegas, bookmakers create lines with the help of a supercomputer nicknamed Midas, which runs algorithms that determine game outcomes. This April, a London-based investment firm introduced a sports-betting hedge fund in which analysts use mathematical models to make thousands of bets.
Even the bettors tend to be more nerdy than naughty these days. Dr. Bob, another high-profile ’capper, studied stats and economics at Cal. But in the late ’80s most handicappers were like Scott and Stryker—still in the hash marks and scratch-paper phase—who could only dream of Jetsons-like computing efficiency. Then in 1991, after a particularly flush year, Scott happened to be seated next to a computer scientist on a flight out of South Bend. “I’d like to build a computer database that can help me with handicapping,” Scott told him. “Is something like that possible?”
READ MORE OF THE SPORTS INVESTING STRATEGY HERE
Below is an excerpt of the article:
PARLAYING OFF
To make money you have to risk money. But we all don’t sweat equally. When a buddy goads you into putting a few bucks on the big game, where do you draw the line? We asked the Nation. What’s your limit for a friendly bet on a sporting event?
In many ways, handicapping today is a highly sophisticated science, steeped in PhD-level statistical analysis. In 2009, at the 14th International Conference on Gambling and Risk Taking, presentations included Exploiting Inefficiencies it tediously entered by Stryker. And it worked. Suddenly the record for any situation a team had ever played in—at home off a loss against a team off a win; a team on the road as a favorite after two straight wins of 10 or more points— could be determined immediately. Says Stryker: “What had taken 23 hours now took 23 seconds.”
If pro sports gamblers win just over half of their bets, it’s a good year. Here’s why: Let’s say his bankroll is $10,000 and he wagers on 2,000 games in a year. If he bets 3% of his roll per game, that’s $330 (including the 10% commission). At 54%, the gambler will win 1,080 bets worth $324,000 and lose 920 worth $303,600. Gross profit: $20,400—or better than a 100% return on his $10,000 stake.
At the M Casino in Las Vegas, bookmakers create lines with the help of a supercomputer nicknamed Midas, which runs algorithms that determine game outcomes. This April, a London-based investment firm introduced a sports-betting hedge fund in which analysts use mathematical models to make thousands of bets.
Even the bettors tend to be more nerdy than naughty these days. Dr. Bob, another high-profile ’capper, studied stats and economics at Cal. But in the late ’80s most handicappers were like Scott and Stryker—still in the hash marks and scratch-paper phase—who could only dream of Jetsons-like computing efficiency. Then in 1991, after a particularly flush year, Scott happened to be seated next to a computer scientist on a flight out of South Bend. “I’d like to build a computer database that can help me with handicapping,” Scott told him. “Is something like that possible?”
READ MORE OF THE SPORTS INVESTING STRATEGY HERE
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)