I post free basketball handicapping analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.My Sunday lean on the Miami-Boston Under 179 1/2 would have won had it not been for overtime, but it was a loss. I'm 11-8 on my free Best Bets and 120-107-7 on my free opinions this season.
Last season I was 12-6 on my free Best Bets and 105-88-2 on my free opinions and I am 38-30-1 on my Free Best Bets and 428-378-12 on my free opinions the previous 4 seasons.
Thursday NBA Opinion
UNDER (180) – Miami at BOSTON (+2)
Game 6 and 7 of a playoff series tend to be lower scoring and are 101-77-2 UNDER since 1991, including 32-7-1 UNDER since 1998 if the total is 180 points or lower. The average pace of this series has been a bit slower than expected and game 6 and 7 tend to be even slower. If this game is played at the average pace of the first 5 games then I’d project 179.3 total points – so the line looks fair without adjusting for the trend of slower paced games in games 6 and 7. I’ll lean Under 179 points or more.
Boston applies to a negative 16-33-1 ATS game 6 situation that is 0-5 ATS when applying to a team that has won the previous 3 games in the series. However, my ratings favor Miami by just ½ a point and using each team’s playoff games only would favor Boston by 1 point – so the line has been adjusted for the situation already. I have no sports investing opinion on the side.
I am by no mean a sexist but I found it interesting that this article was written by a young lady. I found her opinion refreshing from the usual guy football handicapping talk so thought you might enjoy it.
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